Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 132128

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
328 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The main forecast concern in the near term is the flurry threat into
the early evening over the eastern cwa.

Still seeing some light snow/flurries drifting east in the
isentropic lift/lower level waa pattern...mainly affecting the
eastern cwa. We expect this to continue to dry up...and perhaps
linger a few flurries into western Wisconsin early this evening.
Then clearing is expected into western Wisconsin after midnight.
High pressure remains in control with light winds...and we should
see temepratures drop off to at least the 5 below to 5 above range
overnight.  Winds will remain rather light so we dont anticipate any
wind chill concerns.

Sunshine is expected into the day Saturday with perhaps some high
clouds streaming over the southern portion of the area. We expect
highs to remain on the cool side...with readings from 15 to 20.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The main forecast concentrations are the Sunday night-Monday
system and a January thaw slated for the end of next week.

Temps continue to warm on Sunday with highs area-wide in the low
to mid 20s. Models are still struggling to decipher how northern
and southern streams will phase for the start of next week. The
13.12z GFS came in much stronger with the northern stream wave,
and blasted it southeast across the Upper Midwest, which would
mean the precip type for the event would be snow. Conversely, the
13.12z ECMWF has not given up on the influence of the southern
stream, and therefore is warmer with the thermal profiles and
features freezing rain over southern MN with the warm advection
band Sunday night into Monday, followed by a changeover to snow
area-wide Monday afternoon/eve. The temperature differences in the
models also affect snow ratios, so confidence on snow amounts is
still low at this point, although both solutions would yield at
least a few inches in some portion of the forecast area. Will hold
off on a headline at this point given the high amount of
uncertainty due to the large model discrepancies.
n advisory
What is much more certain is the warming trend in temperatures for
the latter portion of next week, as a mid level ridge builds over
the western conus and westerly flow aloft filters across the north
central CONUS. High temperatures in the low to mid 30s will
prevail Wednesday and Thursday, with 40s looking likely for


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Isentropic lift continues to spread east and will continue threat
of brief mvfr/ifr cig/vsbys with -sn...mainly across southern
area. KRWF looks to be most affected for another hour or so.
Further east...trend has continued to bring lowering cigs to
around 4k feet across mn...with some threat of flurries. Will
mention vcsh as it moves into Wisconsin for the evening. We should
return to vfr with the passage of this snow area. Surface winds
becoming se-s and near 10kts to the west and below to the east. We
should see wind becoming more westerly into the day Saturday as
the high exits to the east.

KMSP...Main issue will be ceilings lower to around 4k feet this
afternoon and some threat of flurries roughly 20z-23z. vfr
thereafter. Surface winds becoming se 5-7kts and eventually light
south overnight...and then more westerly into Saturday afternoon.

Sat night...VFR. Wind S 5 kt.
Sun...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kt.
Mon...MVFR/IFR. Wintry mix likely. Wind NE 5-10 kt.




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