Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 260500
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE WEATHER WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING ALL THE COMMOTION FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS EXITS THE REGION.

AT MID AFTERNOON...THE LOW WAS SOUTH OF EAU CLAIRE. SOME SUNSHINE
DID DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHEAST AREAS OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES NOW AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FORTUNATELY BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW. STILL...THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH
METRO ON EAST AND SOUTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED EAST-WEST
TROUGH ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF MN/WI. IN ADDITION...PROFILE
DATA IS QUITE SATURATED IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND SOME
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF WI.

WE WILL BE TRAPPED IN A COOL AND STABLE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON
TUESDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL COVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND SOME DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HIGHS FOR THE
MOST PART WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA. THIS IS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BRINGING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AS A RESULT OF REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE
SYSTEMS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN
ADDITION TO THE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

THE FIRST LOW WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO ITS EAST IN NORTHERN MO.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIELD OF RAIN STRETCHING WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT...MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MN OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
SPREADING OVER MOST OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO THUNDER IS UNLIKELY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TO
THE NORTH OF A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST NEAR THE IA/MO
BORDER.  LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FROM
THE SURFACE TO 850 MB OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN-SNOW MIX...WITH NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.  RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...FURTHER SUPPRESSING/WEAKENING THE FORCING OVER OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

A SECOND LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND.  MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE FIRST ONE...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADA AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY.  THE ECMWF GIVES US A
DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SUPPRESSES
THE LOW MORE AND LEAVES OUR AREA DRY.  EITHER WAY...THE COOL PATTERN
FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT |1153 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. APPRECIABLE PRECIP AS EXITED
THE AREA...BUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. STABLE AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS TRAPPED LOW STRATUS UNDER AN INVERSION.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LIFR MIXED IN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO THE CEILINGS LATE MORNING TO MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY
VFR CIGS RETURN TUESDAY EVENING.

KMSP...CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD DIP
TO LIFR AT TIMES. MINOR VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL. GRADUAL
RAISING OF THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT
IFR LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. PM SHRA LIKELY. WIND E 15-25KTS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHRA. WIND E 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...ADL
AVIATION...SPD


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