Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 232316
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
616 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...For 00z aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The mesoscale convective vortex lifting across central MN has
successfully reinvigorated convection this afternoon. Very much a
tropical-like airmass with very efficient rainfall production,
with many areas receiving rainfall rates on the order of 1 to over 2
inches per hour. Although there has been a general downward trend
in the intensity of storms over the past hour, we are still
monitoring to the west for potential new development, given the
fair amount of clearing that has occurred. If storms do develop,
damaging winds and flooding will be the biggest threats.

Clearing occurs overnight with a mild and benign day ahead for
Sunday, as highs top out in the low to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The long term forecast starts out on a quiet note, but then turns
active on Tuesday and stays that way for most of the upcoming
week.

Monday brings a continuance of near normal temperatures and dry
weather. By Tuesday we see westerly flow develop aloft, with
multiple embedded shortwaves bringing occasional precipitation
chances throughout the week. Temperatures will trend downward
toward values slightly below climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Showers will affect KEAU to start the TAF period, and then we
will be watching to see if any storms can get going back to the
west this evening. Model trends are looking less favorable for
development to affect the TAF sites this evening, although it is
still not totally out of the question so will maintain a hint of
the possibility with a VCTS mention for late evening. After that,
really looks to be a quiet period with few-sct mid/high clouds on
Sunday. South/southeast winds shift to the west/southwest this eve
then become northwest for Sunday with gusts to around or just
above 20 kts developing by afternoon.

KMSP...
It is looking less likely for additional development at KMSP, but
if a line of storms does develop to the west, it would most likely
reach the site around 05z-07z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kt.
Tue...VFR. Chance p.m. TSRA. Winds SW 7-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chance TSRA. Winds SE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WIZ014>016.

MN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MNZ043>045-050-052-
     053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...LS



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