Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

FXUS63 KMPX 151043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
543 AM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

The main concerns in the near term...timing of cold
trends along with temperatures.

Strong southerly flow remains across the cwa ahead of the cold front
in the eastern Dakotas this morning. Lower stratus did develop across
much of the region after midnight.  This trend should continue
through the morning as the front moves into western Minnesota.
Little in the way of forcing with the it will most likely
moves through much of the MN cwa dry.  Some patchy drizzle remains
possible during the morning in the lower cloud region. The front
should move into western Wisconsin by this evening. A small chance
of thunder will accompany the front as it moves east by
little in the way of instability is present.  The stronger southerly
winds will gradually diminish as the front moves into the area.

Some small chance of lingering showers to the east into the early
evening...with clearing expected thereafter.  If we see enough
clearing to the east...we may see some fog and we did mention this
for late tonight. Temperatures will cool into the 40s over much of
the area with lower 50s to the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

The front won`t go too far Saturday night and will return Sunday
as southeast winds encompass the region ahead of another low
pressure system. The low levels will be dry and should respond
well to the WAA. 925 mb temps increase to the upper teens C across
southern MN and mid teens elsewhere by afternoon, and there should
be enough mechanical mixing to reach that level despite high
clouds increasing. Highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s seem like a
good bet per MOS and mixing to 925 mb.

Low level moisture will increase markedly late Sunday afternoon
from south to north. Dew points rising into the 65 to 70 degree
range is widely shown in the raw model output and in MOS Sunday
night. This is incredible considering normal lows this time of
year are 30 degrees colder. Raised lows several degrees across the
eastern two thirds of the area, where the highest dew points will
reside. We may even see some lows warmer and close to 70 in
rain-free areas if these dew points actually materialize.

A disturbance will pass overhead Sunday night with steep mid
level lapse rates in place atop a very moist boundary layer.
MUCAPEs of 1500 j/kg and 500 mb winds of 50+ kts are anticipated
so there could be some stronger storms capable of hail.

A front will drape itself across the area Monday and Monday night
with multiple disturbances riding along it. This will keep PoPs
in the forecast through at least that time.

A trough will finally push the front southeast for midweek, with
more typical weather for this time of year returning for the rest
of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Expect the stratus deck to lower to IFR across mainly the eastern
portion of the FA this cold front moves into western
MN> It appears KAXN will remain on the edge of the stratus deck
and KRWF should work back into it through mod morning. Some DZ
and fog possible as IFR arrives. Threat of significant
showers/thunder dwindling as clouds to remain most of the day.
Will bring in vfr with fropa/winds turn more west/nw. Gusty south
winds should diminish through the morning as well...with the
arrival of the front. Then some threat of LIFR/fog developing
again to the far east as the front slows forward progress into
Wisconsin. Will mention that at the Wisconsin sites for now.

MVFR conditions could deteriorate to IFR into the morning ahead of
the cold front. Lower cigs developing to the south and this may
work into the region yet this morning. Could see some -DZ as
well. Shower threat lessening through the morning and fropa should
lead to VFR after 21z or so.

Sun nite...VFR. Chc MVFR -TSRA. Wind ESE 5-10kts.
Mon...VFR. Chc MVFR with -SHRA. Wind Variable around 5 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind Northwest 7-10 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


AVIATION...DWE is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.