Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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944 FXUS63 KMPX 090909 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 409 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost likely across northwest Wisconsin Thursday night. - Scattered thunderstorms, a few strong, Friday afternoon across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin. - Above-normal temperatures this weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Light showers linger along The Iowa/Minnesota border overnight from last night`s convection over northwest Iowa/southwest Minnesota. Development of more isolated showers is expected this morning across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin as more upper-level support moves over the area but any rainfall will be light. Skies will gradually clear out across southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin this afternoon with temperatures reaching the mid-60s. Northeast winds will allow for cold air off of Lake Superior to advect into northwest Wisconsin tonight, with further cooling of this airmass overnight with clear skies & winds becoming calm. Frost is likely overnight across northwest Wisconsin (Barron/Rusk/Chippewa counties) where lows are forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s, so take action to protect any sensitive vegetation. A cold front moves through the area Friday afternoon, and its passage during peak heating will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon & early evening from eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Only a few hundred J/kg of surface- based CAPE is expected ahead of the front, but shear values of 35-40 kts along the front suggests a few organized thunderstorms could develop. Forecast soundings suggest it shouldn`t be too difficult for thunderstorms to mix down wind gusts of 35-40 kts, & isolated severe wind gusts can`t be ruled out with the strongest storms. Brief downpours could lead to rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.5" with any storms. Behind the front across western Minnesota, northwest winds gusting over 30 mph & RH values approaching 30% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. The persistent cyclonic flow & cooler temperatures aloft moves east of the Great lakes over the weekend, with rising heights over the central CONUS leading to rising temperatures this weekend into next week. Temperatures in the 80s look likely Sunday, with highs generally in the mid 70s continuing into next week. Drier northwest flow aloft persists into early next week, with possibly some increased rain chances Sunday night as models depict a shortwave passing through the region. The jet stream becomes more active midweek, with ensemble guidance highlighting Wednesday as the next chance for widespread appreciable precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Very light rain will linger at MKT for another few hours, but otherwise quiet weather is expected through the period. Ceilings will lower overnight to around FL050, with lower MVFR ceilings possible this morning at RWF & MKT. These clouds will scatter out by late afternoon with clear skies expected tomorrow night. Winds will generally be northeasterly through the day with speeds around 10 kts and a few gusts up to 20 kts. Winds become light after sunset tomorrow with the direction gradually becoming southerly. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI PM...Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 20G30 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind W 15G25 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for Rusk. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...ETA