Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 161837
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
137 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD...AND RESULT IN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST OVER PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED
READINGS ON MONDAY.

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL FOG SITUATION THAN
FROST...WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 DEGREES AND PROGGED
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 1 DEGREE. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FEW CHGS WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS WED NIGHT/THU WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE MEAN PATTERN HAS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THU NIGHT/FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE NOSE OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. BUT CHCS REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LLJ/THERMAL RIDGE. LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL SEE BIG CHGS ACROSS
THE REGION AS A POSITIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS/SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE QPF FIELDS...BUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. DIFFERENCES ARISE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING AS THE LATEST EC HAS A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING/MOVING SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO
THE GFS/GEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME
SIMILARITIES TO THE DEEPER SOLUTION OF THE EC. BASICALLY THIS
MEANS THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MEAN UPPER LOW MOVES
SE OF OUR REGION.

THIS DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MAY HOLD OFF THE WARM UP FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT STILL REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS
FOR THE WEEK OF 22ND. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE DELAYED A DAY OR SO IF
THE STRONGER EC IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES BUT
KEAU. 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT
KEAU EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS VRB 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS S-SW
10-20KTS G 25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF







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