Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FXUS63 KDTX 180531
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
131 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER WILL
ENSURE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND DURING THE NIGHT WITH JUST A
STRAY PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE CUMULUS RESPONSE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE EACH DAY OVER THE LAST FEW AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF BROKEN BY LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE
DURING FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 305 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE
EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A PRONOUNCED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN STILL FIRMLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SAID HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MODIFICATION TO THIS
MORNING`S VERY DRY 12Z KDTX SOUNDING. THUS, DISSIPATION OF DIURNAL
CU WILL GIVE WAY TO LITTLE MORE THAN OCCASIONAL PATCHY MID/HIGH
CLOUD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO ALLOW FOR FULL BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEALTHY
RADIATING CONDITIONS, SO LOWS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SEEM
REASONABLE. LOW TO MID/50S, CLOSER TO 60 IN THE CITY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...BUT STILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE
OVER WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK
IN BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z NAM/GFS. WE SHOULD HOWEVER MIX UP TO ABOUT
9500 FEET...ALLOWING DRIER AIR ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LAYER TO KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY. DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
OTHERWISE EXPECTED.

UPPER TROUGH OVER KS/NE WILL DAMPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOMORROW
AND SATURDAY. LATEST ROUND OF MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IT UP THROUGH
OHIO AND ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY. GFS/NAM/EURO SHOW
SOME MOISTURE SEEPING INTO FAR EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS THIS WAVE
PASSES JUST BARELY TO OUR EAST. LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO STEEPEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS COOLER
AIR ARRIVES FROM 700MB UPWARDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE.
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST AS
EURO/GEM/GFS/NAM ALL TRENDED JUST SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO MICHIGAN WITH
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW A MID-LEVEL CAP HOLDING...AND KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS H850
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 13 C. THIS SHOULD WARMS SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TOMORROW...AND NEAR 80 ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONTINUES TO FIRST
FEATURE TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES UP FROM THE TN
VALLEY FOLLOWED BY WARMING TEMPS NEXT WEEK.  THIS SHORTWAVE IS STILL
ADVERTISED TO BRIEFLY CLIP THE CWA ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS
IN THE GOING FORECAST.  STRONG RIDGING THAT WILL HAVE BEEN BUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING IN MORE WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS AS
BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS RISE THROUGH THE WEEK.  850 MB TEMPS ARE
ADVERTISED TO REACH 18C TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S.  AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE PLAYING OUT A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT UP
THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND WESTERN LAKE
ERIE. THE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...YIELDING
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....HLO/SS
MARINE.......HLO


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).





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