Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FXUS63 KDTX 192313
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
713 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016


.AVIATION...

High based cu will dissipate early in the forecast with loss of
diurnal heating. Light/variable winds tonight become easterly under
10 knots on Friday. VFR conditions will persist with just thickening
cirrus late in the forecast.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Thu May 19 2016

DISCUSSION...

Elongated surface ridge tucked beneath prevalent low amplitude mid
level ridging encasing the Great Lakes under a largely stationary
deep layer dry/stable environment.  No real change expected with
this pattern through the end of the work week, translating into a
virtual carbon copy in sensible weather conditions locally.  Gradual
moderation of the existing air mass as thicknesses climb will tack a
degree or two on expected highs Friday relative to today.  This will
bring readings up to around or just above the 70 degree mark.
Similar trend noted for low temperatures both tonight and Friday
night, but with a solid radiational cooling response under the
clear/dry night sky still resulting in typical mid-May low
temperatures in the 40s.

This benign and rather seasonable stretch will persist into the
weekend.  Slight adjustment in the larger scale pattern will provide
a gradual reduction in upper heights during this time.  This process
anchored initially by the passage of a mid level wave through the
Ohio Valley Friday night and Saturday.  No real evidence to suggest
anything behind perhaps some increase in mid cloud on Saturday
morning /mainly near the Ohio Border/, as both the main corridor of
forcing and greater moisture quality hold just south of the border.
Thus retention of the existing dry/stable profile will again lead to
pleasant conditions, with readings again reaching into the lower
70s.  Trailing northern stream wave or shear axis will propagate
through Saturday night.  Again, lackluster forcing and no suggestion
of better moisture recovery points toward a benign response.

Sunday through Tuesday Morning...high pressure continues over the
region with ample sunshine and warm temperatures. Developing low
pressure over the southern and central plains will begin to filter
clouds into area Tuesday afternoon/evening with chances of showers
showing up for Wednesday/Thursday. POPS currently between 30 and 40
percent.

MARINE...

High pressure and a weak pressure gradient will sustain light winds
and tranquil weather across area waters through the forecast period.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...MR/DE
MARINE.......SC


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