Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 170943
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
443 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Above Normal Temperatures This Week and Little Chance of Rain...
...Conditions Appear Favorable for Morning Fog Mon and Tue...

Today-Tonight...High pressure centered near the Carolina coastline
will shift offshore into the Atlantic today with ridge axis settling
southward across the Florida peninsula. The E/SE flow that results
will lead to warming temperatures today, with highs reaching the mid
to upper 70s over much of the region. Some passing cirrus will
continue, with diurnal cumulus developing during the day, but skies
will generally be partly sunny. Airmass will remain dry, with no
rain chances in the forecast.

Into tonight main concern will be for late night fog development.
Winds will be light and skies mostly clear to partly cloudy which
will favor at least patchy fog after midnight as temperatures fall
into the 50s and low 60s. However MOS and local WRF guidance
indicate greater coverage of fog with localized visibilities a
quarter of a mile or less for much of the interior. Will therefore
include areas of fog mention after midnight over inland areas with
patchy fog closer to the coast.

Mon-Sat...00Z GFS/ECMWF remain in reasonable agreement showing an
extended period of mainly benign weather conditions for east
central FL. A strong mid level ridge of high pressure over the FL
straits/Cuba will keep warm/dry conditions across the forecast
area through Wed as deeper moisture gets steered around the ridge
to the north of the area. Above normal high temps expected to
reach the lower 80s each day (with mid 80s possible) over the
interior. Light onshore flow will hold coastal sections to the
upper 70s Mon then offshore (SW) flow Wed should allow widespread
lower 80s with a few mid 80s possible along the coast given
enough solar heating. In fact, record highs may be threatened on
Wed at DAB/MLB/VRB where the record is 83F at each location. Low
temps will be mild in the low to mid 60s.

Meanwhile, a cut-off low over the desert SW is forecast to eject
E/NE across the southern US early in the week. This feature will
weaken as it encounters confluent flow over the eastern US but it
should flatten/weaken the ridge aloft enough to allow a weak cool
front to settle south into north/central FL Thu. Have maintained a
small 20 PoP for showers Osceola/Brevard northward on Thu. This
is the best opportunity for rain this week. Not much, if any,
cooling is expected with this front then both models show the
ridge aloft rebuilding across the area Fri into Sat with above
normal temps continuing and rain chance too low to mention.

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy ground fog will be possible across the area through early
Sunday morning, but guidance indicates better chance for fog,
especially patchy dense fog, will exist across the area into late
Sunday night. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any fog
development. Otherwise it will remain dry with VFR conditions
expected most of today into the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...High pressure north of the area will push offshore
of the Carolina coastline, with ridge axis gradually shifting
southward across the Florida peninsula. This will veer winds from
the E/SE today to the S/SE into tonight. Winds speeds will range
from 5-10 knots with seas 1-3 feet, leading to favorable boating
conditions across the waters.

Mon-Thu...A trailing ridge axis will extend west across the
Florida peninsula early this week and produce favorable boating
conditions with light winds and small seas Mon and Tue. The ridge
axis will settle across south Florida Wednesday which will
increase the offshore flow 10-15 knots. A weak cold front is
forecast to sag into the local Atlantic waters Thursday and bring
isolated showers north of Sebastian Inlet.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  59  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  79  59  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  78  60  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  79  59  79  60 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  78  60  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  77  60  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  78  61  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  78  59  79  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Weitlich
LONG TERM....Kelly



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