Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 071122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
522 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Updated for 12Z aviation forecast discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

There will be quite a difference in temperatures today as an upper
level trough currently in the upper Midwest and northern Plains sags
south-southeast toward our area during the day today. A cold front
is moving through the CWA as we speak. In its wake, some pretty
decent cold air advection will be taking place with gusty
northwest winds increasing at the surface as the pressure gradient
tightens. 850mb temperatures will be down in the -9 to -10 degree
C range today. Therefore, most places will likely stay in the
lower to mid 30s for highs north and upper 30s south. A couple of
batches of low level cloudiness will pass through the area during
the day but mainly clear skies will be the rule by tonight. Seeing
a few obs upstream of flurries so a flake or two is possible from
this band of clouds as it passes on through. However, the better
moisture will stay up to our north/northeast.

The surface ridge axis will set up over the area tonight so winds
will subside and temperatures will drop rapidly into the teens.
Winds will shift around to the south on Friday and we will see some
weak warm air advection ahead of our next frontal system. While
temperatures will rebound somewhat on Friday, highs will still only
be in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. The actual front will pass
through late Friday night into Saturday morning. Still hanging on to
the possibility of some flurries or light snow in our far
northeastern sections. Otherwise, just an increase in clouds for the
rest of the area is expected, although wouldn`t be surprised if
folks saw some flurries around late Friday night into early Saturday
morning elsewhere given the amount of low level moisture. It will
take most of the day to get rid of these clouds out of the area,
especially eastern sections. But by Saturday night we will be back
to clear skies and cold temperatures (around 20 degrees) as high
pressure builds back in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

The medium range models were in reasonable agreement depicting a
persistent western CONUS mid level ridge/eastern CONUS mid level
trof in the extended forecast. This pattern will be conducive to
seasonable or below seasonable temps for the PAH forecast area,
except for Mon, when a warm advection pattern is forecast to set up
ahead of a clipper system diving toward the PAH forecast area from
the upper Midwest. Temps Mon afternoon may reach into the lower half
of the 50s south, and upper 40s north.

The fast-moving shortwave might generate measurable pcpn north of I-
64 in IN, and along the easternmost fringes of the Pennyrile region
of KY Mon night, starting out as light rain and possibly ending with
some snowflakes in the air. No impacts are expected.

Northwest flow aloft will continue into midweek. Another, quite
similar disturbance may skirt our region sometime on Wed (current
Day 7). Models differ a bit at this time frame on the exact
evolution and timing of this feature. Depending on timing, the pcpn
will probably start out as light snow showers, then change to rain
showers as the lower trop warms. At this time, it appears the pcpn
may be limited to southeastern IL, southwestern IN, and most of the
Pennyrile region of KY. Little impact is anticipated at this time.


Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

First band of clouds passing through the terminals at the time of
issuance is MVFR at KCGI and eventually KPAH but VFR at
KEVV/KOWB. Once this one band of clouds goes through, there will
be a few hour lull before the wider band of clouds comes on
through. The cigs in this band are just below VFR so will play the
middle of the road for now and go with cigs around 3000 ft. Winds
will be gusty out of the northwest for part of the day,
decreasing in the afternoon. Clouds will clear out between 00-03Z



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