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000
FXUS63 KPAH 130448
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1148 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Surface high pressure was centered over southern Minnesota, western
Wisconsin and northern Iowa early this afternoon. High pressure has
been steadily building into our area over the past 24 hours. A cold
front is to our south and light showers developed just southeast of
our counties. Otherwise a nice summer day across the Heartland with
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lower humidity.

Over the next 24 hours, the sfc high to our north will slowly slide
southeast then east into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper level
shortwave, currently over OK/TX, will shift east with time. As
this occurs, clouds will begin increasing from the west late
tonight and into Sunday and impacting at least western parts of
the area. The upper wave moves into Arkansas by 18Z Sunday and
most of the better moisture and better dynamics appear to stay
south of our CWA. Beyond Sunday afternoon, the upper pattern
becomes much more muddled.

The problem lies in the fact that all of the shorter term models
have different takes on the speed, strength and placement of the
best moisture/QPF. The GFS indicates all of the rain chances will be
south of our area the entire short term period. The SREF is just the
opposite and shows light QPF almost over the entire area during the
period. The ECMWF is aggressive in bringing precipitation into
the area starting in the west Sunday night and spreading it east
on Monday. Many surrounding offices are taking the drier route,
closer to the GFS/NAM solutions.

All that said, not going to make any wholesale changes to the going
fcst right now, but tweek what we have to the consensus of the
models. The NAM seems to have initialized well however, so will
trend toward its solution somewhat and the drier GFS. We could see a
few showers in parts of the Ozarks by Sunday afternoon but most area
will be dry. Sunday night and into early Monday, we are going to
reflect the best chances (i.e. slights) across the southern counties
to reflect a bit of what the ECMWF is hinting at. We should be
mainly dry the rest of Monday but chances increase again in the
west Monday night in association with an advancing warm front.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Conditions will be getting more uncomfortable as we head into
Tue/Wed/Thu time frame as sfc high pressure pushes toward the
southeast U.S. and winds become more southerly. This will also allow
over moisture to increase over the forecast area. Though no big
signal is forecast in the mid/upper levels, it looks as though weak
short waves will rotate east through the region, esp Wed night and
toward the end of the work week. The late week short wave may also
be combined with a weak surface front, which may serve as the
highest chance for convection. ECMWF/GFS then hint at a dry and
quite warm start to next weekend as the deeper moisture pushes
farther to the south and weak high pressure builds a bit over the
middle of the country.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

The TAFs are VFR. With surface high pressure in control, winds
will be light throughout the forecast. They may become calm enough
in a few locations for some patchy ground fog to develop,
especially near bodies of water, but the TAF sites should not be
impacted. A strong cumulus field is expected tomorrow, but it
should be at 4-5kft.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS