Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 121700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1100 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Aviation update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Pcpn having departed the area recently, the clouds clearing lag a
few hours, and then, they should be departed as well. Gridded
time/height cross sections show nice dry air invasion down the
column for the entirety of the FA today. That`ll help mute the
impact of the 1045 mb Arctic surface High that drops across the
Upper Midwest today. It shifts eastward across the Great Lakes by
tomorrow morning, so a good radiational cool from Highs in the
upper 30s-lower 40s will allow for another night of Lows in the
20s tonight.

Southerly return flow gets going Tuesday-Wednesday, as upper
heights rise in response to a deepening swly flow aloft. This will
begin to pump up temperatures, but also, it will increase the
moisture. Tuesday temperatures will make it thru the 40s with the
southern half into the 50s, and then Wednesday all will make their
way thru the 50s and toward 60 degrees. The moisture increase will
translate to rain chances reentering the forecast, beginning
Tuesday night, with rain showers likely to accompany the warming
air Wednesday-Wednesday night. Indices are marginally supportive
for the inclusion of thunder in the forecast late Tuesday night-
early Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Forecast confidence in the long term starts off higher than average
at the beginning of the period, but drops off to near average over
the weekend. That said, overall confidence in the Thursday through
Saturday period has improved given better agreement and consistency
among forecast models over the past 24 hours.

The period will start off with an upper level trough in the western
U.S. and an upper level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The
resultant southwest flow pattern over the immediate forecast area
will lend to warmer than normal temperatures through Thursday night.
Surface low pressure progged to be near Kansas City at the start of
the period is forecast to shift east through Friday morning,
dragging a cold front across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio
Valley Thursday night. Showers are expected Thursday into Thursday
night ahead of and in conjunction with frontal passage. Substantial
moisture transport ahead of the front should result in a good
soaking rain. Preliminary rainfall totals with this system are
forecast in the 1 to 2 inch range at this time.

The GFS continues to be the quickest model to shift the cold front
and accompanying rainfall south of the region on Friday. Meanwhile,
the ECMWF and CMC are much slower to do so. If precipitation does
linger into Friday, a cooling thermal profile could support a
changeover to mixed wintry precipitation before it tapers off by
Friday night. However, the potential for significant impact appears
low at this point. Nonetheless, it`s something that we`ll keep an
eye on in the coming days.

Dry and cooler conditions are forecast to kick off the weekend as
Canadian high pressure takes hold beneath a brief transition to
northwesterly flow aloft. However, the potential for rain returns
late in the weekend as southerly flow develops between the departing
high and another low pressure system forming over the Plains. Once
again, temperatures should be warm enough with this next system to
limit the potential for any wintry weather.

Temperatures are generally in line with a model consensus blend
through most of the period. After highs in the 60s across much of
the area on Thursday, readings in the 40s (and perhaps 30s in our
northern counties) are forecast Friday. A moderation back into
the 50s is expected over the weekend.


Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

VFR conditions through midday Tuesday with northeast winds mainly
below 10 kts.



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