611
FXUS63 KPAH 061721
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storm chances increase today and will continue
  through next week with daily chances.

- Another hot and humid day today with high temperatures in the
  low 90s and max heat indices near 100 degrees.

- Temperatures cool slightly later in the week with highs moving
  into the upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Dry conditions are observed across the region this morning. A
few showers and storms occurred yesterday afternoon/evening
within a region of localized low level moisture and upper level
divergent flow. An elongated upper level low will remain south
across the Gulf Coast with a shortwave moving out of the
central plains today. This shortwave will move across the region
today along with a surface trough axis that is expected to lead
to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will be hot with
highs in the lower 90s. Dewpoints in the mid 70s will lead to heat
index values near 100 degrees today especially in western
Kentucky where storms may hold off until later in the afternoon
into evening hours.

A summertime pattern develops this week with daily chances of
showers and storms. A front will stall out just north of the
region with sfc troughing extending across the Quad State. Low
level convergence and ascent aloft from shortwave troughing will
lead to scattered showers and storms Monday into Tuesday. Later
in the week, low heights still remain to the north and west
with a moist airmass in place leading to daily shower and storm
chances persisting. Risk of severe weather remains low but the
flooding threat will need to be watched given the high PW`s and
potential for slow storm motions and/or training. Temperatures
will cool a bit over the week given the expected increase in
rain/storms with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Convection is the primary flight impediment today. Isolated to
scattered activity over SEMO and SIL is expected to persist and
increase in coverage. Downbursts will be a threat with stronger
activity today. A slow spread eastward of the activity is
anticipated. Coverage should peak in the mid to late afternoon
but some showers and thunder may persist through the early
evening. Activity will be moving east about 15 mph so it could
impact terminals for a bit before moving on.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...JGG