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000
FXUS63 KPAH 190010
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
710 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Fairly quiet conditions as of 2pm, after morning convection moved
through. Atmosphere is trying to recharge though and currently do
have some storms firing up in New Madrid County and IR satellite
shows rapidly cooling cloud tops in the MO bootheel. Most of the
activity is located to our south in AR and TN so far. Still
expecting an uptick in convection over the next several hours as
the front moves southeast with plenty of moisture and instability
present closer to our southern border. Slight risk of severe
weather remains mainly from MO bootheel across west KY,
particularly closer to the TN border. Dewpoints have pooled into
the mid to upper 70s from Carbondale IL southward into northeast
AR and northwest TN. Sfc CAPE`s have exceeded 3500 j/kg nudging
into New Madrid County. Overall the better severe risk will be
located south of our area late this afternoon and evening.

Convective coverage should wane and push east through the evening
hours with much of the area dry by midnight. May be some showers
lingering close to the TN border and southern Pennyrile region of
west KY through the night and into part of the morning tomorrow.

Drier air will be working in with dewpoints falling into the upper
50s to lower 60s by Monday afternoon. After morning temperatures
in the low to mid 60s, sunshine will boost afternoon readings into
the low to mid 80s. Overall a very nice day for mid June!

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

With the mean trough axis expected to be east of the WFO PAH
forecast area late Monday and Monday night, ridging, northwest flow
aloft and confluent flow below will dominate the region through late
Wednesday. This will lead to drier air with diurnal temperature
ranges between 25 and 30 degrees likely through midweek with good
insolation each day.

The low circulation being monitored in the Gulf of Mexico is
forecast by the medium range guidance to drift northwest toward
Southeast Texas by Thursday. The ECMWF and Canadian guidance are
still preferred and were utilized in the extended forecast process
with the initialized regionally model blend guidance.

By 12z Thursday, the signal still persists for the WFO PAH forecast
to be situated along the base of faster westerlies in a zonal flow,
with a cyclonic circulation in the Lower Mississippi Valley.

There continues to be some variability as to the location and
intensity of the Gulf of Mexico low and moisture trajectory into the
Lower Mississippi Valley late in the week. This will impact the
moisture transport into the Ohio Valley, as the baroclinic zone
tightens along the base of the westerlies over the WFO PAH forecast
area. Depending on the trajectory of the low in the lower
Mississippi Valley and the stretching/deformation involved,
scattered convection within the base of the westerlies is expected
from Friday into Saturday. The forecast signal for convective
activity on Friday has been consistent, but the ending time on
Saturday may change depending on the movement of the Lower
Mississippi Valley low and the sharpening of the westerly flow
across the WFO PAH forecast area. Dry weather should return on
Sunday.

At this time, forecast confidence is running greater than 50 percent
for the convective activity on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Showers and thunderstorms and associated MVFR ceilings will exit
eastern portions of the area early this evening. Mid/high level
clouds will linger through much of the evening with a trend towards
clearing overnight. This may lead to the development of fog later
tonight, especially in areas that received rain late in the day.
This would be most likely at KPAH and KOWB. Light winds tonight will
increase to 5 to 10 knots from the northwest on Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...RJP