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862
FXUS63 KPAH 140725
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
225 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The big feature in the short term forecast is obviously, the cold
front and its passage. Before it, Today, we warm up nicely. and
should hit the mid to upper 80s, which will be close to records
(CGI 87/ PAH 88/ EVV 90).

Models are in pretty good agreement that the front will approach
tonight, making its move into the northwest part of the FA between
09z-12z Sunday. It looks like at this time, most of the pcpn will
be right along and behind the front. Still, there is just enough
instability to warrant a continuing mention of thunder. The front
will be south/east of the Ohio river by 15Z, and entirely out of
the region by 18Z, with pcpn winding down and ending within 1-3
hours of its passage, ie by Sunday mid pm.

The air behind the front is cooler and much drier. Dew points in
the 40s will be ushered in on brisk/gusty nwlys Sunday pm, causing
rh values to plummet into the 30s in the SEMO Ozarks. These RH
values will be repeated Monday pm for the area as a whole, albeit
on lighter winds as High pressure takes hold.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Models show surface high pressure centered just east of the PAH
forecast area on Tuesday.  The high will move slowly east, moving
off the central east coast on Wednesday.  An upper level ridge will
build over the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys for the
second half of the work week.  This will lead to dry conditions
through the week with mostly sunny to sunny day and mostly clear
nights.  Southerly winds around the surface high will lead to a slow
warm up through the week, with near seasonal temperatures Tuesday
climbing to around 5 degrees above normal by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Patchy morning fog is possible, otherwise a few scattered mid
clouds around KEVV/KOWB this morning. Southerlies will pick up
during the day and will have some gusts into the mid teens kts
during the pm hours. Lower (still VFR) clouds will accompany the
cold front`s approach/passage tonight as pcpn chances ramp
up and offer potential for flight rules restricted in vsbys.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$