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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 150544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES
CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
130 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET PERIOD AFTER A VERY ACTIVE ONE. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND DOMINATES THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTERNOON CU
FIELD IN SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH EVEN A FEW
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR WITH DRIER
AIR...AND WITH WINDS GOING CALM...THIS WILL SET UP A TYPICAL LATE
NIGHT RIVER AND VALLEY FOG SCENARIO. THIS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY
SATURDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY FILTER INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO LATER SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING AND DRYING UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW AND
SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED CONVECTION.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND GRIDS
HAVE ENDED UP WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY POPS
EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CANADA WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES.  BY WEDNESDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME DRYING FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  STILL EXPECT MOISTURE TO
LINGER SO HAVE NOT REMOVED POPS ENTIRELY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG AND BR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
RAPIDLY BURN OFF BY 12Z-13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TODAY FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
BY END OF PERIOD WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF IFR FOG COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 06/15/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...FB
AVIATION...50