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000
FXUS62 KFFC 300111
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
811 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WITH EACH
RUN OF THE LOCAL RADAR MODELS THEY BECOME DRIER AND DRIER. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BUT AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN EVEN THIS HAPPENING IS GETTING LOWER AND
LOWER. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AS THESE LOOK ON TARGET.

17

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIMINISHING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE MOVES
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AS
WELL AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHEN THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR A BRIEF MIXTURE OR TURN-OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. INDICATIONS ARE THE CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL...BUT NOT ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SOME MIXTURE LATE IN
THE EVENING INTO THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME IN THE GRIDS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT.

20

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.
COLD FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT
SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR N GA AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS
OF N AND CENTRAL GA.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS BACKS OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEM...DELAYS THE ONSET
OF PRECIP...AND PUSHES A WEAKER SFC HIGH FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF IT
/NO LONGER RESULTING IN A CAD WEDGE/. ALL CONSIDERED NOW LESS
LIKELY OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPES SUNDAY MORNING THAN JUST RAIN
SHOWERS. HAVE BARELY HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW IN HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST EARLY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THOUGH
DISCREPANCIES EXIST AS TO HOW STRONG THE GULF LOW IS AND IF ANY
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT /GFS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION/.
ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL GIVEN PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES TO INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS STILL EXPECTED.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM NOW AND TOTAL QPF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1 INCH NORTH TO HALF INCH CENTRAL GA.

ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET BRINGS SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
OF COURSE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT HAVE FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED LOW END CHANCE
KEEPING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MOISTURE/TEMP PROFILES
INDICATIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

BAKER

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND MVFR CIGS MOVING ACROSS TN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DOWNSLOPING THE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY NOON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  37  50  29 /  20  30  10   5
ATLANTA         57  36  49  30 /  20  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     52  32  42  23 /  30  30  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    58  36  46  26 /  30  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        61  41  55  32 /   5  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     55  35  48  30 /  20  30  10   5
MACON           58  40  55  30 /   5  30  10   5
ROME            58  36  45  26 /  30  30   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  59  38  50  27 /  10  20  10   5
VIDALIA         63  46  59  33 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...17