National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KFFC 131138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
638 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN TN EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
WISPY CIRRUS IS OVERHEAD PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GA...BUT MOST OF THE
CWFA IS CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS
TURNING MORE NE/E. WITH THE FLOW OFF OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA ON
SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAINS. FOR TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
PRECIP A BIT. THE GFS REMAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM...BUT
BOTH MODELS CONCUR THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE NW ZONES
AFTER 06Z SAT. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF PRECIP.

THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ALL HAVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE CWFA AND MOVING NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WHILE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. EVEN THOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE AS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW.

POPS WILL DECREASE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE A MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE
SHIFTED TO CENTRAL GA WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE. THE GFS/NAM ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE DEEP MOISTURE EAST THAN THE EUROPEAN.

ONLY PRECIP CHANCES TO START SUNDAY WILL BE OVER THE FAR SE. UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA WITH SOME MOISTURE THAT COULD SPIT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE FAR N COUNTIES BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST.

FOR MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...AIRMASS AND UPPER FLOW TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP CONCERNS EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES IN
THE UPPER FLOW DURING THE PERIOD.

NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID U.S. ON FRIDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA THEN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY
THEN BACK TOWARD NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

BDL


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WIND SHIFT TO THE E/NE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER TO MVFR VALUES BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z SAT...THEN TO IFR AS
WIDESPREAD RAINS MOVE IN AFTER 12Z. MVFR VSBYS ALSO ANTICIPATED
WITH THE RAIN. THUNDER SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS THROUGH 12Z SAT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINING ELEMENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT CIGS/VSBYS MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  40  50  42 /   0  30 100  30
ATLANTA         53  43  55  43 /   0  40 100  30
BLAIRSVILLE     48  35  45  36 /   0  70 100  30
CARTERSVILLE    52  41  54  41 /   0  60 100  30
COLUMBUS        56  47  62  49 /   0  30 100  30
GAINESVILLE     50  40  46  40 /   0  50 100  30
MACON           56  45  62  50 /   0  20 100  40
ROME            51  39  53  40 /   0  70 100  30
PEACHTREE CITY  53  41  58  43 /   0  40 100  30
VIDALIA         58  48  66  55 /   0  10 100  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$