Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 291502 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1102 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.UPDATE...
No changes to current forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry/cool air continues to drive down across the state as
strong/nearly cut-off upper low spins across the Kentucky/Indiana
state line this morning.

After morning lows in the 50s across much of north and central GA, 11am
/15z/ temperatures have rebounded to the upr 60s and 70s. Not
expecting much more warming beyond the next couple hours as a
pronounced NW flow will advect/maintain the cool/dry airmass
across the state. Current forecast in very good shape. No changes
to the hourly grids necessary at this time.

DJN.83

20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 707 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016/


LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
The extended portion of the forecast remains quiet.

High pressure at the surface will dominate for much of the extended
forecast. The surface ridging begins to weaken by the end of next
week as a cold front begins to approach the Mississippi River.
Aloft, a long wave trough will dominate across the eastern US
through early next week. By the middle of the week, ridging begins
to build across the area. So, will all of this said, a dry and
seasonable forecast will hold.

One thing to keep an eye on though, is the progression of TS
Matthew. For now, both the GFS and ECMWF keep the storm well to the
east of the CWFA.

NListemaa

FIRE WEATHER...
Fuel moistures dipped to below 8 percent across the northern and
western portions of the CWFA yesterday afternoon. For today, RH
values will remain around 30 percent, but will have to be watched
in case values are lower than anticipated. Winds are expected to
be out of the northwest at 10mph with occasional gusts to 15mph.
If RH values do begin to approach 25 percent, a the issuance of a
Fire Danger Statement will have to be considered. &&

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
No major changes from the 06z forecast. VFR conditions with no
precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs expected. This is going to
be mainly a wind forecast. Winds will stay out of the NW through
the period but wind speeds will be the issue. Winds are in the
5-10kt range this morning and expected to increase into the
10-12kt range with gust to 20kt by 18z. Expecting wind speeds to
diminish shortly after 00z Fri to 10kt or less.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence High on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          81  53  77  52 /   5   5   5   0
Atlanta         76  54  75  57 /   0   0   5   0
Blairsville     69  46  71  47 /  10   5   5   5
Cartersville    74  50  75  52 /   5   5   5   5
Columbus        83  56  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     75  53  74  54 /   5   5   5   5
Macon           86  54  81  52 /   0   0   5   0
Rome            74  50  75  51 /   5   5   5   5
Peachtree City  78  51  76  51 /   0   0   5   0
Vidalia         88  60  83  60 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DJN.83


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