905
FXUS62 KFFC 140704
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Key Messages:

  - Increasing thunderstorm chances through the period.

  - Heat index values over 100 remain likely through the weekend
with some areas potentially seeing values of 105-110 for 4 hrs or
more each day.

  - Watching for modest tropical development along the Florida
Georgia Coastline moving westward into The Gulf.

Starting off the short term with fairly rinse and repeat conditions
Monday. Modest high pressure and mid level ridging keep temperatures
hot with flow generally from the W to SW (For the nerds out there
this feature is nicely visible on a 2PVU surface chart). Dewpoints
in the 70s and temperatures in the mid to even upper 90s will mean
apparent temperatures could reach over 105 for extended periods of
time Monday. A heat advisory has been issued for most of central and
east central Georgia.

Precipitation chances Monday remain suppressed, particularly in
western Georgia where the high is stronger though isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the eastern and far
northern CWA. A few storms could become strong with gusty winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

Conditions change Tuesday as we watch for an area of modest tropical
development off the GA and FL coast. Models are in fairly high
agreement given this feature hasnt even formed yet, though I would
remain skeptical until something does indeed form. Either way, lets
assume that something does form. This feature will move/drift along
the base of the high bringing southeast flow into the CWA. This flow
will be very moist with PWATs 2"+. Near surface convergence from the
SE flow meeting W flow will likely trigger a slow moving (possibly
stationary) line of thunderstorms stretching from NE to the SW. The
exact location of this feature will be in question until the
tropical low becomes more apparent. Current models really want to
set this up along the I85 corridor including the ATL metro.
Though flow isn`t that strong, definitely recommend remaining
vigilant for efficient and slow moving rainmakers in urban areas.
Similar, though more robust, setups have produced notable flooding
in the past.

Heat indices on Tuesday will be dependent on thunderstorm coverage.
Areas that do not receive precipitation/cloud coverage could be hot
and may require further extension of the heat advisory. Be prepared
for Heat indices of 105 to 110 through mid week.


SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Key Messages:

  - Tropical Storm Chantal will spin off the coast. The effect on
north and central Georgia will be to keep storms chances near zero
in most all but far eastern central Georgia.

  - Highs remain in the low to mid 90s outside of the mountains, 70s
to 80s depending on elevation in the mountains.

Forecast:

The holiday weekend continues to look quiet for most of north and
central Georgia, despite the formation of newly designated Tropical
Storm Chantal off the Georgia coastline. The tropical system will
actually play an important role in helping keep the area mostly dry
for the next two days thanks to subsidence and a dry slot around the
outer edge of the system that will be right over the top of north
and central Georgia. The exception to that should be far east
central Georgia tomorrow, which should see enough moisture being
brought around the tropical system in combination with a bit more
favorable upper level environment outside of the dry slot that
afternoon isolated to scattered thunderstorms are able to develop.

Otherwise, no big weather concerns through the weekend. Temperatures
will remain a few degrees above average with highs today outside the
mountains in the low 90s. Heat indices will be in the mid 90s.
Tomorrow, highs will warm a bit in the mid 90s (outside of east
central Georgia, where potential storms and cloud cover may keep
things a bit cooler). Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s
as a result.


Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR through period outside of any thunderstorms. Isolated
tsra possible from 20z to 02z for the eastern CWA. PoPs less than
15 percent for metro. Winds W at 5 to 10 kts. Winds become light
and variable Monday night. Some low cigs possible just beyond taf
period near MCN.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence thunderstorm timing and coverage.
High confidence all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          97  74  95  73 /  10  20  50  50
Atlanta         96  77  96  75 /  10  10  40  40
Blairsville     89  67  89  68 /  20  10  60  50
Cartersville    95  72  97  73 /  10  10  30  40
Columbus        97  77  98  75 /  10  10  30  30
Gainesville     95  73  94  73 /  10  10  50  50
Macon           97  74  96  73 /  20  20  40  20
Rome            93  72  95  73 /  10  10  30  30
Peachtree City  96  73  97  72 /  10  10  30  40
Vidalia         97  74  94  74 /  40  20  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
GAZ024-025-027-035>037-047-048-058-079-089>092-102>104.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ038-039-049>051-
059>062-069>076-080>086-093>098-105>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...SM