Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 260806
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
406 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017


.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
High pressure will be in control of the sensible weather today, but
will shift to the southeast tonight. A frontal boundary will settle
across the Mid Atlantic/Tn Valley by Saturday. Convection is
expected to develop along this boundary, and a few storms could
drift south into far northern GA Saturday afternoon.

Today will be dry with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be near
normal. For Saturday, the highest risk of storms should be well to
the north across the Mid Atlantic/TN/KY. Some of the hi-res models
are showing some storms drifting into far northern GA Saturday
afternoon, but others are dry. So, have chosen to take a compromise
and go isold/scattered storms well north of the Atlanta metro.

There is some potential for Saturday afternoon storms to be strong,
or possibly even severe - but the coverage of storms should be low.
Surface instability and deep layer shear will be present. Very steep
mid level lapse rates for this time of year will also be present.
Gusty winds and hail would be the primary threats of any
strong/potential severe thunderstorms that develop.

NListemaa


.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
Primary concern in the long term period is deep convection
associated with baroclinic zone forecast to sag into the state
late Sunday and Monday.

00Z medium range guidance in fair agreement that front will slip
in Monday and that lift and resulting rainfall will be less than
what we have seen with last few systems this month. Overall
pattern favorable for strong/severe storms in SWly flow aloft on
periphery of upper ridge which extends from TX to OH/TN valleys
thru Monday. GA appears to be mostly dry, dominated by upper
ridging thru late Sunday, though far northern areas could see a
few storms slip in, especially if a large MCS could develop in TN
and propagate SE. Instability should be sufficient for
strong/severe storms, should any make it into the state, however
vertical wind shear will be weak, especially as you go further
south away from stronger westerlies along periphery of ridge.

Front finally pushes through Monday night/Tuesday but with no
well defined short wave, not much lift will accompany its passage.
As front stalls over far south GA, should see mostly dry weather
until Wed night or Thursday when warm advection ahead of weak,
nearly stalled southern stream wave over TX and lower MS valley
brings moisture back. Total rainfall Sunday-Tuesday likely to be
0.5 to 1 inch in north GA and less than 0.5 inch elsewhere.

SNELSON


&&


.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will remain
on the west side.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  64  88  69 /   0   0  10  10
Atlanta         82  66  87  71 /   0   0  10  10
Blairsville     78  59  82  64 /   0   5  30  30
Cartersville    82  63  86  69 /   0   0  10  20
Columbus        86  64  89  71 /   0   0   5  10
Gainesville     80  65  85  69 /   0   0  10  10
Macon           84  63  89  68 /   0   0   5   5
Rome            83  63  85  68 /   0   0  20  20
Peachtree City  83  62  87  68 /   0   0  10  10
Vidalia         85  65  91  70 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...NListemaa



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