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000
FXUS62 KFFC 200121
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
921 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017


.UPDATE...
No major changes needed to the forecast. Have made some tweaks to
the hourly temp and dewpoint grids.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 722 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Quiet weather for Mid August looks to continue this short term
period.

A rather dry and only weakly unstable airmass looks to lead to
little in the way of significant weather through Sunday night. Some
increase in moisture over portions of central GA on Sunday will lead
to only small chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the
500mb ridge drifts over the area. The forecast instability is so so
but a remnant surface trough or weak stationary front looks to
linger across that portion of the state.

Forecast low temperatures are running close to normal tonight and 2
to 4 degrees above normal Sunday night. Forecast high temperatures
are running around 5 degrees above normal for Sunday.

Overall confidence is medium to high.

BDL

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Medium range models still showing weak upper ridging holding over the
region as we enter the extended forecast period, however ridge is
beginning to break down as upper troughing digs into the eastern U.S.
for the middle and latter portions of the work-week. All of this
handled well by current Long-Term Forecast grids and minimal chances
were made for this forecast cycle. Please see the previous LONG TERM
Forecast Discussion below.

20

Previous LONG TERM Forecast Discussion /Sunday Night through
Friday/...

Extended periods start off with ridging at the surface and aloft
building into the forecast area. The weakening surface boundary
remains over portions of east central GA Monday afternoon, and with
models in good agreement showing an axis of higher vorticity in the
afternoon and evening, will continue to keep highest pops across
southern portions of forecast area. Drier air across north GA should
keep partly cloudy skies there during the peak of the eclipse Monday
afternoon.

On Tuesday we will be in between systems as a short wave moves
into the Great Lakes area by late afternoon. Moisture begins to
increase with just low chances of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms developing across the area. We remain on the
south side of short wave as it pushes the cold front into north GA
on Wednesday. Much of the upper level energy lifts northward,
away from the area, as the front slowly pushes through much of the
forecast area wednesday night into Thursday morning. The front
remains across portions of south GA through Friday and proximity
of front, combined with several impulses in the upper level flow
will keep continued chance of diurnally driven convection across
mainly central GA.

Guidance temperatures in good agreement through the period
showing near normal through the period and will continue to take a
blend. Temperatures during the eclipse (Monday) look to stay
steady an hour before the maximum obscurity (between 1pm-2pm),
then drop a couple degrees up to 30 minutes after max obscurity
(3pm). Temperatures are expected to rebound quickly after the
eclipse. The temperature drop will be less for those under cloud
cover/precipitation. This drop in temperature is not expected to
impact the high temperatures Monday

Atwell

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR through the period. Few/sct diurnal cu during the afternoon.
Winds should go over to the west side around 12Z Sunday. Speeds
should remain at or below 10kt.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  94  72  91 /  10  10   5  10
Atlanta         72  95  73  91 /   5  10   0  20
Blairsville     63  88  64  87 /   5  10   5  20
Cartersville    69  94  72  92 /   5  10   5  10
Columbus        74  98  76  92 /  10  20   5  20
Gainesville     70  92  72  90 /   5  10   5  10
Macon           71  96  74  92 /  10  20   5  30
Rome            69  94  71  93 /   5  10   5  10
Peachtree City  69  95  72  92 /  10  10   5  20
Vidalia         74  96  75  90 /  10  30   5  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...