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000
FXUS62 KFFC 061054
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015



.UPDATE...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. CANT FIND
MANY RETURNS ON THE FFC RADAR...BUT THE COMPOSITE IMAGE IS LENDING
A FEW CLUES WITH SOME RETURNS OVER FAR NE GA. IN ADDITION...THE
500MB RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A SHEAR AXIS IN THE SAME VICINITY OF
THE RETURNS. SUSPECT MID LEVEL ENERGY IS FORCING LIGHT PRECIP OUT
OF ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS STICKING...BUT AMOUNTS ARE LOW...AND LIMITED
TO A QUICK COATING. HRRR DOESN`T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE LIGHT
SNOW...BUT IS PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SPECKLES IN THE
REFLECTIVITY PROGS. ALSO...GETTING SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL ISSUE AN SPS COVERING THE LIGHT SNOW AND ANY SLICK
SPOTS ATTRIBUTED TO BLACK ICE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE
EARLY MORNING SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY...WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. NW WINDS MAY TRY TO GO NE
BRIEFLY TODAY...BUT SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NW AFTER THE 500MB
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GOOD NEW IS THAT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NORMAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY.

NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN RETURN FOR THE
WORK WEEK. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW AND
RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
GFS SHOWS AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE CWA...BUT THIS IS VERY MINIMAL SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES THE RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS /12Z/ ECMWF RUN.

LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE IN THE EXTENDED AND BECOME MORE MILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE KEPT ALL LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

11

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A BAND OF COLD AIR STRATOCU IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES SHORTLY. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
330-010 THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CIGS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  29  61  35 /  30   0   0   0
ATLANTA         47  31  59  37 /  30   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     42  25  55  30 /  10   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    45  27  58  31 /  30   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        51  32  64  36 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     45  30  58  37 /  30   0   0   0
MACON           49  30  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            45  26  58  29 /  20   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  48  28  61  31 /  30   0   0   0
VIDALIA         49  34  62  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

NLISTEMAA