Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 180221
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
921 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.UPDATE...Mainly a temperature and wind forecast for the
overnight period. Current temps on track which is saying something
given snow cover and difficulty in predicting radiational cooling
effects. No changes to ongoing forecast as wind chills have
already dipped to the single digits across north GA and wind chill
advisory will stand as is.

Deese

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Cold dry high pressure over the southern MS valley will drift
east along the gulf coast states through Thursday night.

Gusty winds will diminish most areas tonight but the remaining
winds combined with cold temperatures will continue very cold
wind chills and a wind chill advisory will continue for much
of north and portions of w GA until 10 am Thursday morning.
Refer to the wind chill advisory product for more information.

Otherwise, a quiet forecast can be expected this short term period.

Forecast low temperatures are running 17-19 degrees below normal
tonight and 8-13 degrees below normal for Thursday night.
Forecast high temperatures are running 7-11 degrees below normal for
Thursday.

Overall confidence is high.

BDL

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Did not make any significant changes to the long-term forecast grids
at this time. Still appears we will see the quick warm-up continue
into the weekend as the zonal upper flow turns southwesterly ahead of
the Sunday night/Monday system. Medium range models continue to bring
the weak upper wave across the area dry on Saturday so i have not
added any POPs to that period. Please see the previous Long-Term
Forecast Discussion below.

20

Previous LONG TERM Discussion /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

The long term begins with a zonal flow aloft and a dry airmass.
A southern stream short wave moves across the northern Gulf and
tracks gradually eastward off the Atlantic coast by the first of the
week. Models seem to bring this across our area without any
precipitation. The next rain event is on track toward the end of the
weekend and into the first of the week. GFS/ECMWF are now slower
with the surface front...starting the showers late Sunday night and
the front crossing the forecast area on Monday. Rain should be
ending on Monday night. There will be a warming trend through the
weekend and this will be an all liquid event. Have kept the mention
of thunder out for now...although some weak CAPE develops over west
central GA on Monday. Tuesday looks dry with near seasonal
temperatures.

41

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected with remaining lower clouds clearing
quickly then just clear to mostly clear skies. Surface winds
WNW 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts diminishing early tonight
to 10 kts or less for most locations.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence for all elements.

BDL

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR expected for this cycle a welcomed change. Winds will slowly
come down this evening and remain 5 to 10 through Thu.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
High on all elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          15  46  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         17  42  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     10  41  19  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    13  41  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        19  46  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     18  44  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           16  47  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            14  42  19  50 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  14  44  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         22  47  26  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for the following
zones: Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...Cherokee...
Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...
Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...
Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Lumpkin...
Meriwether...Murray...North Fulton...Paulding...Pickens...Pike...
Polk...Rockdale...South Fulton...Spalding...Towns...Troup...
Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...Deese


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