Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 291502 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1102 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016
No changes to current forecast.
Dry/cool air continues to drive down across the state as
strong/nearly cut-off upper low spins across the Kentucky/Indiana
state line this morning.
After morning lows in the 50s across much of north and central GA, 11am
/15z/ temperatures have rebounded to the upr 60s and 70s. Not
expecting much more warming beyond the next couple hours as a
pronounced NW flow will advect/maintain the cool/dry airmass
across the state. Current forecast in very good shape. No changes
to the hourly grids necessary at this time.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 707 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016/
LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...
The extended portion of the forecast remains quiet.
High pressure at the surface will dominate for much of the extended
forecast. The surface ridging begins to weaken by the end of next
week as a cold front begins to approach the Mississippi River.
Aloft, a long wave trough will dominate across the eastern US
through early next week. By the middle of the week, ridging begins
to build across the area. So, will all of this said, a dry and
seasonable forecast will hold.
One thing to keep an eye on though, is the progression of TS
Matthew. For now, both the GFS and ECMWF keep the storm well to the
east of the CWFA.
Fuel moistures dipped to below 8 percent across the northern and
western portions of the CWFA yesterday afternoon. For today, RH
values will remain around 30 percent, but will have to be watched
in case values are lower than anticipated. Winds are expected to
be out of the northwest at 10mph with occasional gusts to 15mph.
If RH values do begin to approach 25 percent, a the issuance of a
Fire Danger Statement will have to be considered. &&
No major changes from the 06z forecast. VFR conditions with no
precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs expected. This is going to
be mainly a wind forecast. Winds will stay out of the NW through
the period but wind speeds will be the issue. Winds are in the
5-10kt range this morning and expected to increase into the
10-12kt range with gust to 20kt by 18z. Expecting wind speeds to
diminish shortly after 00z Fri to 10kt or less.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence High on all elements
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 81 53 77 52 / 5 5 5 0
Atlanta 76 54 75 57 / 0 0 5 0
Blairsville 69 46 71 47 / 10 5 5 5
Cartersville 74 50 75 52 / 5 5 5 5
Columbus 83 56 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 75 53 74 54 / 5 5 5 5
Macon 86 54 81 52 / 0 0 5 0
Rome 74 50 75 51 / 5 5 5 5
Peachtree City 78 51 76 51 / 0 0 5 0
Vidalia 88 60 83 60 / 5 5 5 0