Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 071627
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1127 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016


.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME CIRRUS FLIRTING IN
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S IN THAT AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME
UPPER 30S AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION PULLS COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE AREA. LEFT AN HOURS WORTH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
GRIDS RIGHT AT 12Z FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...BUT POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE
AT BEST BY THEN ANYWAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FAR NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE
BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WPC
QPF A BIT HIGHER WITH THIS CYCLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH BUMPS UP SNOW ACCUMULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON A SMALL
AMOUNT...BUT MAINLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. I DO NOT HAVE A HIGH
ENOUGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY TO ISSUE A WWA AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

20

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ENTERING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SPREADING SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES UNTIL
AROUND 12Z WHEN THEY ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA TAF SITES. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 3-7KT WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12KT W/ GUSTS 16-20KT BY 15-18Z...AND
EVENTUALLY WEST 5-8KT BY 00Z. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BY 12Z MONDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  35  47  29 /   0  10  40  30
ATLANTA         54  37  46  29 /   0  10  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     50  31  41  23 /   0  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    54  35  46  27 /   0  20  40  30
COLUMBUS        56  36  53  31 /   0   5  20  10
GAINESVILLE     53  36  44  28 /   0  10  50  40
MACON           56  34  55  31 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            55  34  46  27 /   0  30  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  55  35  47  29 /   0  10  30  20
VIDALIA         55  37  58  34 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20/BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20


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