Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 251913
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Cold front is currently poised to cross the Mississippi River this
afternoon. A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed out
ahead of the frontal boundary,and is now making it across central
AL. The front and line of convection will continue to trudge
eastward for the remainder of the afternoon into the overnight
The line of convection should begin to approach the far NW/W CWFA
between 22Z and 00Z - well outrunning the front. Models are not
progging a whole lot of surface instability or shear with this
system and the lapse rates are weak. A few thunderstorms are
possible tonight, but severe weather is not anticipated.
The main mid level energy with this system gets shunted well to the
north overnight and Sunday. However, there is some energy associated
with a shortwave trough that comes through during peak heating
tomorrow. Frontal convergence is weak, but there will be enough
surface instability for another round of thunderstorms. Again,
severe weather is not anticipated, but a few storms could become
.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
An active weather pattern appears in store for the Southeast region
beginning early next week, as an open (upper level) wave crosses the
area Monday night into Tuesday. The system is expected to weaken as
it tracks east into a shortwave ridge off the Carolina coast so
severe threat remains very low at this time. Best chance to see any
organized storms will be across north Georgia where best forcing
along a sfc front, along with marginal low level wind shear and
instability will exist.
Upper ridge will build across the region mid week
(Wednesday/Thursday) ahead of next system that is expected to be
rather strong as it moves away from the Four Corners/Desert SW into
the Southern Plains. Remnant "cold front" / boundary may be draped
somewhere across south Georgia and will likely move north as a warm
front Thursday. At this is occurring, high pressure building east of
the Appalachians could result in a "wedge" front situation
developing Thursday across north and east-central Georgia where
cooler/wetter weather will exist. Models diverge on approaching
(Southern Plains) system Thursday/Friday as the 12z GFS being the
outlier -- taking the system farther south than the EC and
GEM/Canadian models. This "positioning" discrepancy will have a
large influence on the potential severity with this system. In any
case, it looks like the potential to see active weather across north
and central Georgia is increasing late Thursday into Friday.
Hi-res models keep indicating convection to impact ATL overnight.
However, the storms should be weakening as they move through the
area. Have pushed the timing back by an hour. Do think a tight
gradient of precip vs no precip will be tight for Sunday with the
axis setting up across the northern ATL metro, so have only
included a vc for the afternoon. Winds may also flirt with due
south tomorrow afternoon, but should remain on the east side.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 57 76 58 78 / 50 60 40 20
Atlanta 59 75 60 77 / 60 50 20 10
Blairsville 54 67 54 71 / 70 70 50 30
Cartersville 58 74 57 76 / 70 60 20 20
Columbus 60 79 60 81 / 50 40 10 10
Gainesville 57 71 57 75 / 70 60 40 20
Macon 59 80 59 82 / 30 50 20 10
Rome 57 74 57 76 / 70 70 20 20
Peachtree City 57 76 57 78 / 60 40 20 10
Vidalia 59 80 60 83 / 10 50 20 10