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000
FXUS62 KFFC 091917
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED VERY QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ZONAL TO WEAKLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE /SEEN BEST IN VORTICITY
IMAGES RATHER THAN IN HEIGHT FIELDS/ PUSHING THROUGH TOMORROW THAT
SHOULD KICK UP THE WINDS A TAD. THIS IS THE FINAL PIECE OF VORTICITY
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE CUTTING-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL COME BACK TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EVEN WARMER
TEMPS TOMORROW THAN TODAY /ADVECTION THROUGH THE COLUMN IS PRETTY
CLOSE TO NEUTRAL SO IT IS MAINLY A RESPONSE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS/.
WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT OTHERWISE NO REAL IMPACTS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. WELL...OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL SPRINGTIME INCREASE IN
POLLEN...BUT LUCKILY THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MIGHT HELP MITIGATE THAT
AT LEAST FOR A WHILE.

OVERALL A VERY NICE SHORT TERM EXPECTED WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH CHANGES COMING INTO THE
EXTENDED.

TDP


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS MODEL TIMING AND
OVERALL TRENDS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STILL NO THUNDER
WARRANTED... BUT GFS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE NOSING
INTO CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS MID
WEEK DRAWS NEAR. OTHERWISE... STILL EXPECTING SOME AREAS TO SEE
FREEZING TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS... SO BE PREPARED TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA LATE ON SUNDAY... POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

39

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 402 AM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014/

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AREA. EUROPEAN IS A LITTLE FASTER
MOVING DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THAN THE GFS AND NO MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCES POPS SEEM REASONABLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY FOR THE WESTERN 1/2 TO 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. BULK OF THE
PRECIP CHANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THEN A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS SEEMS ONLY A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE
EUROPEAN. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT IF MOISTURE
LINGERS LONG ENOUGH OVER THE FAR N...SNOW COULD BRIEFLY MIX BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. FOR NOW THINK PRECIP WILL END BEFORE ITS COLD ENOUGH
FOR ANY SNOW. SOME MOISTURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ASSOCIATED
MAINLY WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OR TWO BUT NOT SURE POPS ARE
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. FORECAST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO WEAK FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR MAYBE BRIEFLY WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.

BDL


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014/
18Z UPDATE...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NOT EVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY
ADDING FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS. MAY SEE SOME PASSING MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WINDS WNW TO NW THROUGH THE PERIOD 7-12KT THIS
AFTERNOON...BELOW 5KT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ATL TONIGHT...BACK UP TO
7-12KT WITH LOW-END GUSTINESS ON TUESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          44  75  47  78 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         48  72  50  74 /   0   0   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     38  67  42  70 /   0   0   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    41  71  43  75 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS        49  75  52  78 /   0   0   5  20
GAINESVILLE     46  70  48  74 /   0   0   0  10
MACON           45  77  50  77 /   0   0   0  10
ROME            40  71  43  76 /   0   0   0  10
PEACHTREE CITY  41  74  44  76 /   0   0   0  10
VIDALIA         50  77  53  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...TDP