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136
FXUS62 KFFC 211100 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
700 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE FOR AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

The main concern is the potential for Isolated to scattered convection
the next two days that should be highly diurnal in nature.

A 500mb trough across the area along with some increasing moisture
and diurnal instability, will give the potential for afternoon and
evening convection. The upper trough drifts south for Friday but
the moisture will then be in place across the entire forecast area
from the start.

A warm airmass will continue over the area with forecast high
temperatures running 6-8 degrees above normal today and 3-4 degrees
above normal for Friday. Forecast low temperatures are running 5-7
degrees above normal for tonight.

Overall confidence is medium to high.

BDL

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

Large upper-level ridge dominates the eastern U.S. through the
weekend. A general weakness in this ridge persists over the forecast
area limiting somewhat the potential of the ridge to result in
significantly higher than average temperatures. Ridge weakens by the
beginning of next week. Proximity of Maria off the east coast will
also maintain a general northeasterly flow over the region helping to
keep temperatures moderated a bit and the airmass more stable. Upper
ridge starts rebounding by the middle of next week. All-in-all, a
generally dry and mild to warm period appears to be in store through
the extended forecast period.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Patchy to areas of IFR-MVFR vsbys in fog til 13z. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected today into tonight. Sct-Bkn cu 4000-7000 ft
with some higher layers. Surface winds calm or light NNW to start
then NNE during the day less than 10 kts. Isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms possible after 16z. Due to the high
uncertainly, have continued a VCSH at TAF sites, except for AHN,
18-03z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low confidence for wind direction with respect to which side of
north the winds will be and VCSH late afternoon/early evening.
Medium confidence for ceilings.
High confidence on all other elements.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  67  86  66 /  20  20  40  20
Atlanta         89  70  85  69 /  20  20  40  20
Blairsville     84  62  82  61 /  30  20  50  20
Cartersville    88  67  86  66 /  20  20  40  20
Columbus        91  70  88  69 /  30  20  40  20
Gainesville     88  68  84  66 /  20  20  40  20
Macon           91  68  88  66 /  30  20  40  20
Rome            89  66  87  66 /  20  20  40  20
Peachtree City  90  67  86  66 /  20  20  40  20
Vidalia         90  69  89  69 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...BDL