037
FXUS64 KAMA 150922
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
422 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue for much of the upcoming
week.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and tonight across most of the area.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible just about every day
through Saturday. However, coverage and probabilities of
precipitation may differ significantly on a daily basis.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Widespread 90-100 degree temperatures continue for today across the
Panhandles due to strong ridging, very warm 850mb temperatures, and
breezy southerly winds. As with the past two days, there will be a
lack of significant forcing mechanism in order to get showers or
thunderstorms to develop... however, given the anomalous heat,
convective temperature should be reached this afternoon such that
isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible
across the Panhandles. Unlike the past two days, some dry air aloft
(around 700mb) is being advected into the Texas Panhandle tonight
and into the morning hours. The GFS/ECMWF/NAM suggest that this dry
airmass will be wiped out by a more moist airmass moving in from New
Mexico in the late afternoon hours. This drier air aloft may inhibit
showers and thunderstorms from developing in the early to mid
afternoon hours, but if the moisture aloft moves in by the late
afternoon into the early evening hours, we may see shower and
thunderstorm development. To make confidence worse, CAMs are also
not in good agreement regarding where/when/if showers and
thunderstorms will develop. Have opted to give 10-15% PoPs across
the Panhandles, with 15-20% PoPs in the northwestern combined
Panhandles where more CAMs agree the most on some kind of activity
occurring. Also similar to the past two days, forecast soundings
show an inverted-V signature once the moisture aloft arrives,
suggesting the potential for wind gusts up to 55 mph. Again, can`t
entirely rule out a wind gust up to 60 mph but there is a very low
chance (<5%)for that given the meager instability. However, given
that the potential development for showers and thunderstorms looks
to be later in the day compared to previous days, the window for a
strong wind gust looks to be narrower as activity should weaken with
the cessation of daytime heating.

Monday, a seasonably robust upper-level trough dips down into the
West Coast states while a lee surface trough develops in eastern
Colorado. This will lead to breezy winds especially for the
northwestern combined Panhandles. Highs look to be around 2 degrees
cooler than today, but once again still well above average. There
will once again be a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the
Panhandles, but there is currently very low confidence regarding
where they will develop. Most of the 00z CAMs are suggesting the
better chance for development will be in the eastern combined
Panhandles rather than the western combined Panhandles which is what
the NBM is showing. A likely explanation for this is that the CAMs
are picking up on a sharpened surface trough in the eastern combined
Panhandles, and the converging surface winds may be just enough
to get thunderstorms to develop. Will opt to leave the NBM`s PoPs
in for now as it is hard to be sure at this time that the surface
trough will remain in the Panhandles, but introduction of higher
PoPs may be needed later.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The first upper level low pressure system embedded in the larger
scale western states upper level trof initially progged to be in
the vicinity of northeast Nevada at 12Z Tuesday is forecast to
translate northeast into Montana by 12Z Wednesday, then head into
far southern Canada towards Wednesday evening. The trailing
energy associated with this first storm system is expected to
graze the southern high plains and help generate showers and
thunderstorms across New Mexico early Tuesday afternoon. These
showers and storms are then expected to move eastward across our
forecast area later Tuesday afternoon and night, with precipitation
ending and having moved east of the region by around 12Z Wednesday.

There will likely be a relative minimum in precipitation chances
for the OK and TX Panhandles on Wednesday and Thursday as the large
scale western states upper level trof reloads with another upper
level low pressure system progged to dig southward to around
southern California by Thursday morning. This particular feature
is expected to track east northeast towards the central plains
region Friday into Saturday. As this occurs, chances for showers
and thunderstorms increases again for the area, mainly Friday and
Friday night. The threat will then decrease on Saturday as the
second storm system heads into the central plains.

Medium range models and corresponding ensembles are in general
agreement with the overall upper level pattern. However, differences
in timing and track of these two storm systems were noted. NBM pops
and temperatures are reasonable and reflect the above synoptic scale
reasoning. Further adjustments to the long term periods are anticipated
as time gets closer and numerical weather models converge on a more
common solution with respect to timing and track.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. There is
a chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon primarily
at KDHT but also possible at KAMA. However, confidence is too low
at this time to include in the TAFs.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                95  64  93  65 /  10  10   0  10
Beaver OK                  96  63  92  64 /  10  10  20  10
Boise City OK              92  60  89  62 /   0  20  10  10
Borger TX                 100  66  97  67 /  10  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              96  63  94  65 /  10  10  10  10
Canyon TX                  94  62  92  64 /  10  10   0  10
Clarendon TX               94  63  92  65 /  10  10   0  10
Dalhart TX                 92  59  90  60 /  10  20   0  10
Guymon OK                  95  62  94  63 /  10  10  10  10
Hereford TX                95  62  93  64 /   0  10   0  10
Lipscomb TX                96  64  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   94  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                95  64  92  65 /  10  10   0  10
Wellington TX              97  65  94  66 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...52