Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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276 FXUS64 KTSA 181500 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1000 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas of fog across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas have dissipated this morning. A warm and humid day is on tap across the area as high temperatures soar into the mid to upper 80s for most locations this afternoon. Subtle surface to mid level ridging building into the region will keep skies mostly clear through the day with light winds. Going forecast remains in good shape with no updates needed this morning. Bowlan && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Shortwave ridging remains largely in control Sunday, with another very warm and humid afternoon, as some spots likely reach low 90s. Signal remains in strong to severe thunderstorm development along the dry line to our west late Sunday afternoon across northwest OK, some of which eventually moves east toward our area. This activity will be on the decline Sunday night as it moves this far east. Dry line appears less active Monday with increased capping spreading north as mid level heights again rise temporarily. Potentially more active severe weather day is possible Tuesday as a stronger shortwave ejects into the Central Plains, resulting in stronger deep layer wind fields and modest height falls into the Southern Plains. Uncertainty continues regarding storm mode and coverage, but this period appears to offer the highest chance of severe weather for this region. Cold front expected to push through Wednesday with storm chances continuing. Evolution of the pattern into late next week remains in question, but generally looks active. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Fog will reduce visibilities and ceilings at a few spots during the first couple hours of the forecast period, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with light winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 87 63 89 70 / 0 0 0 30 FSM 87 64 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 88 64 89 71 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 87 60 88 68 / 0 0 0 40 FYV 85 61 87 69 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 85 61 87 67 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 84 63 87 69 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 85 61 86 68 / 0 0 0 30 F10 86 63 87 70 / 0 0 0 20 HHW 86 65 87 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...05