952
AXNT20 KNHC 150605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some areas of
South Florida, and the waters from the central Bahamas northward
from there and also over the waters north of 25N and west of 69W:
A persistent surface trough trails southwestward from low
pressure (Invest AL90) that is centered well north of the area
offshore the U.S. southeastern coast, southwestward to inland
central Florida near Cocoa Beach to near Venice, and continues
southwestward to low pressure of 1007 mb over the central Yucatan
Peninsula. The trough is helping to advect ample deep tropical
moisture across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, South Florida,
the Bahamas and northward. Aided by a mid to upper-level trough
that just northwest of the surface trough, scattered heavy showers
and strong thunderstorms continue for most areas of the above
mentioned locations. Conditions are expected to improve in South
Florida tonight, but shower and thunderstorms may linger over the
Atlantic waters off South Florida to the NW and central Bahamas
and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the
weekend. Anticipate dangerous cloud to surface lightning, strong
gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility. Mariners transiting
these regions should exercise caution. Please refer to bulletins
and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices for
specific local information.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico:
A Central American Gyre (CAG) continues to develop. Sporadic
convection capable of producing heavy showers are already
occurring in the region. As the CAG develops further, more
widespread deep convection is expected to develop this weekend
through next Friday, June 21. Combined with persistent moist
onshore flow in the Pacific coast of Chiapas State of Mexico,
Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua, very
significant rainfall amounts are expected. With the soil already
saturated in this area, life-threatening flash flood and mudslide
are probable, especially in hilly terrains. Please refer to
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast and
emergency management offices for specific information.

Heavy Rainfall across Costa Rica and Panama:
The same CAG mentioned above will also produce sporadic deep
convection across Costa Rica and Panama through night. Periodic
heavy downpours can increase the chance of flash flood and
mudslide in hilly terrain, and flooding in low lying areas.
Please refer to your local weather forecast offices for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W from 03N
to 16N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. No significant
convection is present as it is moving through a dry and stable
environment.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 72W south of
15N to inland eastern Colombia, moving westward around 15 kt. No
significant convection is occurring over the Caribbean waters
with this wave. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
near the southern part of the wave in Colombia. Of note, this wave
is forecast to become absorbed into the CAG discussed in the
Special Features section during the weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters passes off the coast of Africa near
the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N21W and
continues to 05N30W and to 06N42W. It resumes at 06N45W to 06N54W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of
the trough from 06N to 11N east of 17W to the coast of Africa.
Similar activity is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 17W and 27W,
and within 60 to 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W and 44W.

Convergent winds near the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon
trough is contributing to the development of scattered showers
and thunderstorms, some strong, over southwestern Caribbean south
of 13N west of 77W. This activity extends westward to inland Costa
Rica and northern Panama and into the eastern Pacific waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the ongoing heavy rainfall over the far southeastern Gulf.

Aside from the features and convection described in the section
above, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection covers most of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are over the central and western portions of
the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate south to southeast winds
are over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate north
to northeast winds over the rest of the basin, except for gentle
east to southeast winds over the NE Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft
throughout, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft over
the southeastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough that extends from
central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula will dissipate overnight.
A Central American Gyre will develop over the next couple of
days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical
cyclone to develop from this broad area of low pressure, and a
tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf during
the early or middle part of next week. Active convection, along
with increasing winds and building seas are expected with this
system in the early to mid part of next week, mainly impacting the
south-central and northwest Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for heavy rainfall
across Costa Rica and Panama.

A deep plume of tropical moisture advecting northeastward ahead
of the Gulf of Mexico surface trough is present over the
northwestern Caribbean. Convergent moist southerly winds are
over this section of the sea. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over this same section of the sea. Moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are over the
south-central section of the sea. Gentle east to southeast winds
along with seas and 3 to 5 ft seas are over the eastern and
southwestern sections of the sea. Moderate to fresh east to
southeast to south to southeast winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft
prevail elsewhere across the sea.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible across portions of the western and northwestern Caribbean
over the next few days as a Central American Gyre develops.
Expect increasing winds and building seas over the western
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, over the upcoming
weekend as the gyre develops.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the ongoing heavy rainfall and hazardous marine conditions
for waters near southeastern Florida and also near the NW and
central Bahamas.

In addition to the surface trough and associated weather
described above under Special Features, a broad Atlantic ridge
extends southwestward from a 1032 mb high that is located well
north of the area over the north-central Atlantic to near the
Lesser Antilles. The gradient related to this feature is
supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 35W and the Florida/Georgia
coast, except moderate to fresh south to southwest winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are north of 28N between 71W and 76W. Latest
ASCAT satellite data passes show fresh to strong north to
northeast winds north of 13N between the coast of Africa and
Cabo Verde Islands. These winds reach northward to near Canary
Islands. Seas with these winds are 7 to 9 ft. For the tropical
Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate, and at times, fresh northeast to
east to southeast winds are present over these waters along with
seas of 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell are over the
rest of the Atlantic Basin.

A weak surface trough extends from near 26N56W to 22N63W. Another
weak surface trough extends from near 30N49W to 23N53W, and yet
another weak surface trough is analyzed along 67W from 21N to 26N.
No significant convection is presently occurring with these
features. Only isolated showers are noted from 20N to 30N between
44W and 60W.

A recently develop area of scattered showers and thunderstorms
induced primarily by an upper-level trough evident from 16N to
19N between 48W and 51w.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms persist east of a trough reaching from roughly
31N76W to central Florida. Gusty winds, higher seas and frequent
lightning will be possible with this convective activity. The
trough will shift to the east of the region through early next
week. Looking ahead, expect fresh E winds west of 70W by late Tue
as high pressure builds north of the area.

$$
Aguirre