Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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703 FXUS63 KICT 271736 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1236 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures expected to remain seasonably mild to warm for much of the week. - Periodic rain chances forecast through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Analyzing water vapor satellite this morning, a number of shortwave troughs are progressing eastward across the northern plains, Midwest, and New England regions. Meanwhile, weak upper ridging exists over the Great Basin. As a result, general northwesterly upper flow is present over the central plains. At the surface, a frontal boundary has pushed moisture out of the forecast area, and warm but dry conditions are expected for today as a result. Later tonight into early Tuesday morning a subtle mid-level baroclinic zone will be draped over Kansas. With apparent mid-level moisture transport as well as meager instability (less than 500 J/kg) above 700 mb, a few isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two are progged to develop across portions of central and south-central Kansas. Rain chances should come to an end later Tuesday morning as the LLJ weakens. For the remainder of the week, ripples in weak upper level zonal flow across the central plains are expected to skate over the region. This along with rich gulf moisture streaming northward and setting up shop across the region. As a result, periodic storm chances are anticipated throughout much of the week. Analyzing the upcoming pattern is fairly difficult as global models tend to have a tough time resolving subtle features; therefore, the forecast for the next week is fairly uncertain. While multiple opportunities for showers and storms exist this week, we will definitely emphasize not to expect widespread, meaningful rainfall this wee. However, with flow aloft so weak, we are NOT expecting widespread severe weather; just a token strong to marginally severe storm may be possible should sufficient instability be in place. So let`s break this down... Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, it appears as though low to medium (20-40%) isolated storm chances exist mainly west of I-135. This looks to be supported by the combination of a weak upper wave passing over western Kansas as well as possibly modest moisture transport nosing into a subtle mid-level boundary created as a result of afternoon convection coming off of the High Plains. Chances generally wane during the day on Wednesday, but will gradually increase again late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as another shortwave trough skates across the region. Storm chances during this time frame may be further supported by sufficient elevated instability as well as some broad mid- level WAA. Global models attempt to repeat this exact scenario Thursday evening into Friday morning which will bring more rain chances to the area. Just to reiterate, this is still fairly uncertain taking into account global models have a difficult time resolving subtle features like this. Rain chances look to dwindle going into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Fairly quiet VFR conditions are expected through late tonight. By later tonight and persisting through at least Tuesday morning, increasing deep warm advection should support increasing scattered showers/thunderstorms. Unsure on exactly where this activity will focus, so included PROB30 -TSRA at all sites. Limited instability in concert with adequate deep layer shear could support pea-dime size hail with the strongest activity. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...ADK