Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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114 FXUS63 KICT 300551 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1251 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms this afternoon - Several showers/storm chances through the weekend and possibly into next week - Best rain chances late Thursday into Friday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 As of 230 PM Wednesday afternoon, a summer-like pattern was present across the Plains with pulse convection developing amongst a weakly sheared environment. Satellite reveals an expansive cumulus field across the forecast area with zones of agitation. Expect isolated showers/storms through sunset. With shear values near 20 kt, the strongest updrafts may produce pea size hail and gusty winds up to 40 mph. More-widespread convection is expected towards dawn Thursday through the afternoon , especially west of Interstate 135, as a midlevel shortwave trough advances across the area. Similar to today, weak shear should limit the overall severe weather potential with the strongest storms capable of dime size hail and 50 mph winds. Another midlevel shortwave trough will emerge late Thursday into Friday yielding additional rain chances. The active pattern will continue through the weekend and possibly into next week with weak perturbations translating across the Plains atop a weakly to moderately unstable environment. A pattern change may ensue towards the latter half of next week with midlevel ridging sliding in from the western CONUS. This would shunt precipitation chances east of the area with increasing temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Main forecast concern will be storm chances through the next 24 hours. Storms developed across eastern CO/far western KS Wed evening and are continuing to track east. This activity will continue this trend through the overnight hours but confidence remains low on what the coverage will look like in several hours. So for now will just mention VCTS at KRSl-KGBD and continue to monitor trends. Wouldn`t be shocked if thunder is added to remaining sites once confidence starts to increase on the track of current storms. The same setup is expected for this afternoon and evening with storms once again expected to develop over the High Plains and track east through the evening hours, possibly moving into the area after 00z Fri. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...RBL