054
FXUS63 KDDC 150542
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening as storms roll
  east-northeast out of southeast CO. Primary hazard will be
  damaging wind gusts.

- Another round of storms is possible Saturday afternoon and
  evening, however weak mid/upper level flow should limit
  severity.

- Strong southerly winds are likely early next week, especially
  Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Visible satellite observations show widespread cloud debris is
lingering over southwest KS from overnight convection, which is
keeping temperatures in most locations much cooler than expected
in the upper 70s/low 80s. That said, continued erosion of this
cloud cover over the next couple hours should still allow
afternoon highs to reach into the upper 80s/low 90s. Otherwise,
latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
show a compact shortwave impulse over the Four Corners region
that is moving northeast towards the central Rockies. As forcing
for ascent increases ahead of this wave, thunderstorm
development is anticipated across south-central and southeast CO
within an environment characterized by modest buoyancy and
deep-layer shear. With time, upscale growth into a loosely
organized convective system is likely, which will move east-
northeast into western KS by 22-00Z. DCAPE values ahead of this
complex are progged to be in the 1200-1400 J/Kg range, which
will once again support damaging wind gusts as the primary
severe hazard. There is some uncertainty regarding how far east
thunderstorms can reach, as a few HREF members suggest activity
will decay before US-283. This seems reasonable given the
aforementioned lingering cloud cover, which will inhibit surface
parcels. However, deep-layer shear increases slightly with
northward extent, which may support MCS maintenance across
roughly the northern half of our CWA. Either way, convection
will be largely clear of our area by 08Z, and the remainder of
the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the low 60s west
to low 70s east.

Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles agree the compact upper
level impulse will eject onto the central plains. As forcing for
ascent associated with this wave interacts with any remnant
outflow boundaries, another round of scattered thunderstorms
appears likely roughly along and near an axis from Liberal/Meade
to Wakeeney/Hays. Weak deep layer shear should limit storm
severity, but a few severe wind gusts or quarter sized hail
stones cannot be ruled out.

Sunday into early next work week, medium range ensembles
continue to suggest broad, longwave upper level troughing will
become established over the western CONUS. With modest
southwesterly flow across the central Rockies, fairly deep
leeside surface troughing will develop over eastern CO that will
persists well into the week. Mass response around this feature
will result in strong southerly winds, especially on Monday and
Tuesday, sustained in the 25-35 mph range with gusts up to 50
mph. Additionally, precipitation chances will remain somewhat
elevated as both ECMWF EPS and GEFS probability of QPF > 0.01"
is at least in the 30-60% range each day through Wednesday, and
as high as the 70-80% range Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have moved on from our southwest
Kansas region, including the four terminals DDC, GCK, LBL, and
HYS. For the rest of tonight, winds will be fairly light and
generally out of the south at 7 to 10 knots for the most part.
Saturday will be windy out of the south-southwest with sustained
winds in the afternoon reaching 20 to 25 knots sustained. Gusts
at times will approach or reach 35 knots. There will be a slight
chance for thunderstorms, isolated in nature, and given the
forecast coverage of storms late in the day tomorrow,
thunderstorms will not be included in this TAF issuance.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Umscheid