409
FXUS64 KLUB 011126
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
626 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The overall synoptic pattern will remain very similar today compared
to the past several days with modest quasi-zonal flow aloft over
West Texas. With a lack of any airmass modification, deep layer
moisture will remain impressive locally with surface dewpoints above
60F and PWATs near or above one inch. Despite considerable
convective overturning from last night`s MCS, the airmass is still
expected to recover over the entire region with high temperatures in
the low to mid 80s supporting MLCAPE values above 3000 J/kg. Even
so, little or no convection is expected to initiate over the
South Plains region during the daytime hours given a lack of any
coherent low level confluence and minimal forcing aloft. However,
with low level theta-e ridging extending all the way to the base of
the New Mexico high terrain, scattered storms are still expected to
initiate over eastern New Mexico during the late afternoon through
early evening as a more significant shortwave disturbance within
the westerly flow arrives overhead. As has been the case over the
past several days, westerly steering flow will allow this activity
to shift eastward into West Texas this evening into tonight.
Strong to severe storms will once again be possible across
essentially the entire forecast area given the favorable downstream
environment including continued steep midlevel lapse rates and moist
southeasterly low level inflow. Just how widespread severe storms
become is still uncertain and will depend on the evolution of
upstream activity in NM. Given the pattern and in consideration of
how things have evolved over the last several days, have boosted
PoPs above NBM into the chance category across most of the forecast
area this evening into tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Lee troughing will develop Sunday afternoon with the dryline draped
from north to south across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and
South Plains. Temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 90s
through the day with convective temperatures being reached. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will develop along the dryline and push
eastward through the night. MLCAPE values around 2000+ J/kg with
bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates will
support severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
A shortwave trough embedded in the zonal flow aloft will provide
additional forcing for the thunderstorms to continue after sunset
into the nighttime hours. Additionally, the low level jet will ramp
up which may help to keep a few isolated strong storms through the
overnight hours as they move eastward out of the forecast area. The
dryline will have mixed eastward overnight and by Monday be
positioned along the Rolling Plains. There is a low potential for
storm development Monday afternoon off the Caprock, but some
deepening cumulus cloud development is likely. Very warm
temperatures are expected due to downsloping southwesterly surface
winds. With triple digit heat making an appearance, convective
temperatures will once again be reached. A tongue of 850mb theta-e
will be most prominent just east of the forecast area into northwest
Texas and western Oklahoma where an upper shortwave will also
provide forcing for thunderstorms. However, an isolated strong to
severe pulse storm across the far eastern stack of counties from
Childress to Stonewall cannot be ruled out with a brief potential
for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Height rises are expected Tuesday as the upper ridge builds in
across the southwest CONUS and flow aloft turns northwesterly with
an upper trough swinging across the Northern Plains. Temperatures
will peak Tuesday with very warm downsloping winds and triple digit
heat across most of the forecast area. Lubbock may reach a record
breaking high Tuesday with the previous record being 106 degrees
(set back in 2013). Conditions will remain dry Tuesday with the
better chance for precipitation to the east of our area. With the
passing trough across the Northern and Central Plains, the triple
digit heat will be short lived as a back door cold front sweeps
southward through the area Wednesday returning highs to the 90s.
Towards the end of next week, the upper ridge will continue to build
eastward into New Mexico with northwesterly flow aloft. Several
embedded disturbances in the ridge will give way to increasing
precipitation chances late next week and into the weekend.
Temperatures will also remain near or slightly above normal in the
90s for this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Broken line of TSRA along a line from near CVN to just south of
PVW at 1120z will continue to shift slowly southeastward through
the next hour or two before gradually dissipating. Direct
terminal impacts still look unlikely at LBB and PVW, but will
maintain vicinity mention at both sites through mid-morning.
Outside of these TS, VFR will prevail throughout the day at all
sites. Additional scattered TS may then approach LBB and PVW this
evening, but confidence in specifics is too low for TAF mention at
this issuance.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30