Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
200 FXUS64 KLUB 301759 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1259 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 431 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Another round of thunderstorms moved through the area overnight with a passing shortwave embedded in the weak ridge aloft. Southwesterly flow will return aloft with an approaching weak trough axis below the main trough axis across the Upper Rockies. A lee low is expected to develop across southeast Colorado this morning with a dryline extending southward into eastern New Mexico. Dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s east of the dryline today. Temperatures will also warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s with the warmer temperatures along the higher terrain. Where storms fire this afternoon will be dependent on the position of the dryline, which is currently progged to setup across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and western South Plains with storms then to move eastward. MLCAPE values will be around 2000+ J/kg with bulk shear of about 40 knots. This environment will support supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Significant hail of 2+ inches or greater is possible along and east of the I-27 corridor with storms that develop. Depending on the storms this morning across the Texas Panhandle and into southwest Oklahoma, there is a potential for an outflow boundary to setup across the area tomorrow afternoon along a line from Tulia to Matador. This area will be of concern for tornadic activity as storm may latch onto and ride along the boundary. 0-3km SRH along and behind this outflow boundary will be enough to support a tornado or two. However, this tornadic potential is highly dependent on this morning`s storm activity across northeast New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle progressing eastward into southwest Oklahoma this morning and kicking out an outflow. Heading into the late evening hours as storms move eastward, there is a chance for an MCS to develop across the Rolling Plains before exiting the forecast area. Hazards would remain large hail and damaging wind gusts should this occur. Storms that develop this today will have the potential for heavy rainfall, especially if an MCS develops this evening. Therefore, localized flooding becomes a concern especially across the Rolling Plains later tonight. Tonight, low clouds may fill in across the area with lingering low level moisture. There is a chance for additional shower and elevated thunderstorm develop off the Caprock, but the environment may be too worked over by the earlier storms. Thus, confidence is low on this potential. Storms should remain sub-severe with small hail and gusty winds the main threat. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 431 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Precipitation chances continue Friday and Saturday across the South Plains region as a series of shortwaves begin to pass over the region through the weekend. By Sunday the upper level ridge will begin its track back over the FA which could limit convective any convective potential possible on Sunday. A slight chance for thunderstorms remain in place for Friday afternoon. A moist air mass is expected to remain in place Friday afternoon with dewpoints progged in the mid to upper 60s across most of the FA. This in addition to the subtle disturbance in the flow aloft may be enough for some isolated thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. However, a few caveats will have to be breached in order for convection to initialize. If low-level stratus decides to linger through the afternoon we may not see enough diurnal destabilization to erode the CAP; in addition, any kind of remaining outflow boundaries from previous convection could throw a wrench in convective development. If and when the capping inversion is able to break a strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Increased chances for precipitation return Saturday as a shortwave trough enters the region from the west. With a similar moist airmass in place in addition to steep lapse rates, MUCAPE around 4000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear around 40 knots will lead to strong to severe thunderstorms. Given the long-skinny CAPE profiles depicted on forecast soundings and PWATS around 1.5" flash flooding may be a cause of concern, especially within stronger storm cores. As we head into the new week, upper level ridging will begin to build back in which should lead to quieter and warmer temperatures through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon, with a line of thunderstorms developing west of LBB to PVW. These storms will likely be severe with large hail and wind gusts exceeding 50 knots. Around sunrise on Friday a stratus deck may move into the area with a modest low-level jet, bringing a risk for temporary IFR conditions at all sites. Watson/Sorensen/Oz/Fenske && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...26