Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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365 FXUS64 KTSA 111726 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1048 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Warming trend continues today with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Scattered high clouds will persist this afternoon as MCS tracks southeast across north Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Weak upper low currently centered over the TX Panhandle will track southeastward today while gradually opening into a minor wave across E TX by Wed. morning. Guidance is in good agreement that the precip shield associated with the wave will remain just south and west of far SE OK with a few brief light showers extending into eastern OK. The forecast will remain dry today for the local forecast area with temps near or a few degrees warmer than Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Ridging aloft strengthens through the southern Plains Wed. - Thurs. and the expanding low level thermal ridge will support a notable warming trend area wide. A stronger wave will pass across the northern Plains on Thursday with the attendant surface trough sliding through the forecast area late Thursday night through Friday night. Initial frontal convection located across the central Plains will struggle to be maintained southward as ridging aloft / warm mid level temps suppress convective potential and guidance remains in good agreement that precip chances will remain very low with the frontal passage. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend with no cooling expected as the boundary passes. A stronger wave is expected to pass through the Plains Saturday into Sunday, however at this time the primary precip corridor is expected north of the local region. The wave will help shunt the upper ridge eastward by early next week and resultant flow is expected to allow a surge of deep tropical moisture into the region. This would allow a return of rain chances and slightly cooler temps for early next week. The reprieve from the early season heat is likely to be brief as upper ridging strengthens across the region by mid next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Scattered mid/high clouds will persist with a few lower level CU developing this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with light winds through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 91 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 65 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 64 89 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 62 90 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 62 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 61 88 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 63 88 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 61 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 F10 63 88 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 64 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ UPDATE...12 SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...12