Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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587 FXUS64 KTSA 161919 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 219 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Still some lingering impact from "Francine" as the remnant low continues to meander across the lower MS valley, all the while weakening. Thus a few showers remain possible across parts of western AR into the evening. The residual impact of moisture along with clearing skies does imply some fog potential tonight for most of western AR into some of eastern OK. While no strong signal is present in the data for widespread impacts, some locally significant reductions to visibility in normally more fog-prone locations is implied. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Tuesday will see one more relatively okay weather day before summer makes a late rally that persists through most of the week and possibly into the weekend. A prolonged blocking pattern featuring an expanding ridge over the central states results in rising temperatures and some increase in in humidity as well. Current expectation remains that the upper trough currently moving through the Great Basin will lift off to the northeast. This may provide a brief glancing blow of forcing over the northwestern sections of the forecast area by Tue night or Wed morning, but most associated storm chances will likely remain to the northwest. A second trough is then forecast to essentially replace the first one in the southwest, in effect re-enforcing the strong ridge over the Southern Plains. This should result in much above normal temperatures for Thu and Fri, with some locations of northeast OK making a run at the century mark. BY the weekend the later trough should being to make its move, however the trends do not favor a significant impact on our weather at this time. Forecast will maintain lower-end chance of thunderstorms beginning Friday night, with a modest "cool-down" (still above normal) into early next week. No real fall weather anytime soon it would appear. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A trend toward VFR conditions as clouds scatter is the trend in the near term across E OK and KFSM. The far NW AR sites may keep MVFR cigs thru early evening before they scatter out. Short-term ensemble data (HREF) indicates potential for low clouds and fog Tuesday morning at the NW AR (more fog) and the E OK (more low cloud) sites. Used TEMPOs to convey potential for now at the far NW AR sites, dropping to IFR or blo around daybreak. For the E OK sites, used TEMPOs to convey MVFR vsby/cig potential, though data pointed to IFR potential at KMLC. All TAF sites will likely have a period of MVFR cigs during the morning hours before cigs rise and scatter toward midday on Tuesday. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 66 88 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 68 88 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 65 88 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 63 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 63 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 62 85 62 87 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 65 85 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 63 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 F10 65 86 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 67 85 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...30