585
FXUS64 KTSA 171529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1029 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1029 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Dense fog this morning has burned off across most of the region
allowing the Dense Fog Advisory to be allowed to expire, with
clear to partly cloudy skies currently noted. A compact shortwave
trough embedded within the broad southwest to northeast oriented
upper trough will progress northeastward this afternoon into
eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon as this wave
encroaches on the warm/moist airmass in place. The greatest
coverage of storms will likely be associated with the wave across
parts of far eastern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas from
mid to late afternoon. A lack of deep layer shear should keep
storms from becoming very organized and thus, the severe
potential will remain limited. Some isolated stronger downbursts
or small hail are still possible with the more persistent updrafts
over northwest Arkansas. With seasonably high moisture in place
and due to the slow moving nature of any storms, locally heavy
rainfall will be the main concern, especially over areas that have
received a lot of rainfall recently, and could lead to some
isolated flash flooding concerns. Otherwise, highs this afternoon
will be seasonably warm in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the
area.

Update this morning adjusted PoPs/Thunder grids to align with
current trends to lessen coverage of storms across eastern
Oklahoma.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Some lingering showers and storms persist into the evening,
mainly across southeast OK and western AR as the upper wave
departs. Some amount of fog is likely again tonight, and potential
for locally dense fog will be there. Otherwise the weekend will be
uneventful weather-wise as shortwave ridging establishes over the
region for a couple of days. Temperatures will rise above normal
with rather humid conditions, however the NBM numbers for high
temps may be a bit high given the saturated soil conditions.
Either way, heat index values in the lower or even mid 90s are
possible both days.

The remainder of the extended forecast becomes a bit more active
as stronger flow aloft sets up over much of the country, with some
degree of longwave troughing in the west. A passing shortwave
will result in a low threat of showers and storms late Sunday nigh
into Monday across far northeast OK, though instability looks
limited at this time. A more substantial wave will push a cold
front into the area, sometime Tuesday most likely, and with the
stronger deep layer flow present, the potential for severe weather
will increase during that time. Confidence beyond that remains
low regarding any details, but some degree of thunderstorm chances
will be maintained into later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Areas of fog will reduce visibilities and ceilings for the first
couple hours of the forecast period, with mainly VFR conditions
prevailing thereafter. A few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon, with the Arkansas sites most likely to be
impacted. At least patchy fog will be possible again late tonight,
with the southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites most
likely to see fog impacts at that time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  60  86  64 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   79  62  85  64 /  50  20  10   0
MLC   79  60  85  64 /  30  20   0   0
BVO   81  57  86  60 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   77  58  82  60 /  70  20  10   0
BYV   76  58  83  60 /  60  20  10   0
MKO   77  60  84  62 /  30  20  10   0
MIO   79  59  85  61 /  20  10  10   0
F10   77  59  84  63 /  30  20   0   0
HHW   79  62  86  64 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05