590
FXUS64 KOUN 231817
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
117 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Stalled weak frontal boundary across northern portions of Oklahoma
will slowly weaken and mix back to the north through the day. The
hottest temperatures will likely be just south of this boundary,
across central portions of Oklahoma. Temperatures are expected to
be a few degrees less hot than yesterday north of the front and
there will be additional cloud cover at least into early portions
of the afternoon, but dewpoints will be higher/pooled north of the
front. Despite many locations not quite reaching criteria in
latest iteration of forecast, we will keep the heat advisory
going for today. With the new forecast numbers indicating heat
indices just as high or higher farther south, we expanded the
advisory down to the Red River near and east of I-35.

Mild/muggy night expected again tonight with most lows well into
the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Heat advisory will continue for Monday, with some westward
expansion to the one issued for Sunday. Additional advisories can
be expected through the week.

Broad, upper ridge still forecast to spread westward and become
more meridional over the southern and central Rockies for the
first half of the week, before getting suppressed some by next
weekend. This is expected to produce the hottest stretch most
locations have seen this year with upper 90s to lower 100s through
the week. Dewpoints progd to remain seasonably high especially
across the eastern half of Oklahoma, which allow apparent
temperatures to rise close to or slightly higher than heat
advisory levels (105F). Wednesday may be the outlier across
northern portions of Oklahoma behind a weak front and potential
MCS outflow boundary. Relatively low rain chances will continue
in the forecast for Tuesday night and early Wednesday, but it
still looks like most of the showers and storms will stay must
north and east of our forecast area.

Hottest temperatures of the week may actually be realized during
the latter half with veered flow ahead of the next front that is
forecast to move into the region next weekend. This will likely
keep at least heat advisory level heat going most days over large
areas, with an excessive heat warning for at least parts of the
region not out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected until 241800. A weak front will keep
east to northeast winds at Kwwr and KPNC while south to southwest
winds occur to the south. The front will dissolve by early Monday
leading to south winds at most TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  99  77  99 /  10   0   0  10
Hobart OK         76 101  78 101 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           75 101  77 102 /  10   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     76 101  78 101 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         76  99  77  99 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ005>008-
     011>013-017>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-040>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...09