331
FXUS64 KLUB 311947
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
247 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Southeasterly surface flow continues to sustain moisture east of a
dryline from the Big Bend region that becomes increasingly diffuse
northward into the South Plains. Thunderstorms have already begun to
fire in the high terrain of New Mexico and are expected to propagate
eastward through the afternoon and evening. Subsidence in the mid-
levels and a cap near 750mb should prevent any convection from
forming over the South Plains. However, northwest flow aloft may
direct storms in northeast New Mexico toward the forecast area
during the overnight hours. If storms enter the area, favorable
moisture and instability will sustain convection at first, with the
potential for severe wind gusts and a few instances of large hail
with stronger cores. However, as the boundary layer stabilizes
overnight, storm intensity should diminish. Because model guidance
is unclear on when this process will occur, the eastward and
southern extent of these storms is uncertain.

Tomorrow`s weather setup is similar to today, with moisture and
instability extending to the high terrain of New Mexico. The 500mb
ridge is expected to slide slightly eastward and should continue to
prevent convection over the forecast area during the afternoon.
However, because afternoon highs should near convective
temperatures, any surface boundary could provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. The current assumption is that
temperatures will remain just shy of convective temperatures,
keeping the CWA dry through the afternoon. Across New Mexico,
generally westerly flow aloft will allow storms to propagate
eastward towards the South Plains and Texas Panhandle into the
evening hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with
storms that move east into the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Storms over eastern New Mexico are expected to push eastward into
the FA tomorrow evening just as an upper shortwave moves across the
overhead ridge. While the highest risk for severe storms will be to
our west, some storms could still produce one inch hail and wind
gusts up to 60 mph. The upper shortwave should help sustain
convection through much of the night before exiting to our east by
sunrise. Models diverge with convective prospects Sunday afternoon
along a dryline. The GFS keeps convection suppressed with an
overhead ridge while the ECMWF keeps the upper ridge slightly to our
east. For the time being, a chance of thunderstorms will be kept in
the forecast given previous trends. Models agree with forming a
blocking pattern over the southwestern CONUS by mid week, but there
is some differences on placement of the upper ridge. The GFS brings
the upper ridge over the southcentral CONUS vs the ECMWF which keeps
the ridge to our west and places the FA under northwesterly flow.
Models, however, agree with having a cold front push through by
Wednesday helping to cool highs from the triple digits area wide to
the low/upper 90s. They also agree with area wide precip chances
late next week after the FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of this TAF
period. Southeasterly winds may increase to around 15kt at LBB and
PVW through the late afternoon/early evening before diminishing
late this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to form this
afternoon in the high terrain of eastern New Mexico and shift
east through the evening. It is uncertain how far east these
storms will propagate; therefore, prevailing thunderstorm mentions
have been left out of the LBB and PVW 18Z TAFs. In the overnight
hours, a line of thunderstorms is expected to move southeastward
through the Texas Panhandle towards CDS, potentially clipping PVW.
The timing of this complex is uncertain, but models indicate that
storms may affect CDS at some point between 04-09Z. Hazards with
these storms include frequent lightning, strong winds, and heavy
rain, which may lower visibility. With abundant low-level
moisture, low clouds may develop late tonight across the region,
but low confidence precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...58