783
FXUS65 KABQ 121130 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

- There is a minor risk of burn scar flash flooding this
  afternoon and early evening.

- Scattered showers and storms today may produce gusty outflow
  winds and brief heavy rain east of the central mountain chain.
  Gusty and dry storms are possible along and west of the central
  mountain chain today then over eastern New Mexico Friday.

- Moderate heat risk is expected in most low elevation areas
  Saturday through Monday as temperatures warm to the hottest
  levels so far this season. Major heat risk is possible for the
  southeast plains and the lower Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 522 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Rain chances were increased along the western fringes of the
moisture (Rio Grande Valley and adjacent mountains) for the
afternoon period in-line with recent hi-res guidance which shows
isolated gusty showers developing between 1PM and 3PM. Very little
rainfall is likely with his convection, but it may produce gusty
winds of 40mph+.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Shortwave ridging will amplify over New Mexico today, helping to
push up temps a few more degrees. The dry air it brings in from the
west will limit convective activity west of the Continental Divide
so showers/storms will generally focus over eastern NM. Since there
are storms it does mean there is a threat of burn scar flash
flooding, however the risk is low since near-normal PWATs and high
based storms suggest relatively inefficient rainfall rates. A weak
perturbation downstream of the ridge axis will focus a few stronger
storms across the northeast as they move off the mountains into the
plains. HREF mean has bulk shear of around 25kts so it probably
wouldn`t be enough for supercells but should be sufficient for pulse
severe. Models have been hinting at some scattered showers along the
Rio Grande Valley during the evening, initiating off the outflow
boundaries of storms in eastern NM. While only a few sprinkles would
likely reach the ground, DCAPE of around 800J/kg would be enough to
produce very strong winds from seemingly harmless virga.

The dryline will keep trekking eastward on Friday, serving as the
lifting mechanism for afternoon convection. Coverage would likely be
very limited, but the instability and shear would be supportive of
supercell development in far eastern NM near the TX border where SPC
has introduced a Marginal Risk area. There may also be a batch of
dry storms that develop over the southwest mountains during the
afternoon, which is a concern for potential fire starts given that
ERCs in that area are above the 90th percentile.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Temperatures will trend 5 to 10F above normal Saturday while H5
heights rise to near 594dm over southwest NM. Dry air will remain
in place across western NM while low level moisture sloshes around
over far eastern NM. A few gusty popcorn showers and storms are
possible by late afternoon along the TX/NM border but most areas
will be just dry and hot. No record highs are expected. Heights
will rise to 595dm over western NM Sunday. These heights are near
the average max climatological value for mid June at KABQ.
Surface dewpoints will trend even lower with low teens and single
digits possible over western NM. Just enough low level moisture
will be in place over far eastern NM for more isolated, gusty
showers or storms. Record highs are more likely along with
widespread areas of moderate heat risk. Major heat risk is
possible over the lower Rio Grande Valley and southeast plains
where Heat Advisories are more likely. By Monday, an upper level
trough approaching the west coast will help to deflect the H5 high
center farther south into northwest Chihuahua. Temps will remain
very hot given deeper mixing and slightly breezy southwest winds
over central and western NM. A few more record highs are possible
along with additional Heat Advisories.

There have been notable changes in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe
from the ECMWF and to some degree the GFS and Canadian. The ECMWF
shows a more persistent H5 high center over northern MX both days
as a large area of disturbed weather shifts northward from the
eastern Pacific along the west coast of MX. The GFS and Canadian
show a weaker trough than previous runs while splitting the H5
high. The latest cluster analysis favors the stronger H5 ridge
over northern MX with very hot temps continuing to impact NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Showers and storms will develop around 18Z for areas along and
east of the Rio Grande Valley, slowing drifting off to the east
through the afternoon into the early evening. Gusty outflow winds
will be the main concern, even if showers don`t directly move over
terminals. VFR conditions will prevail today, except for brief
MVFR visibilities in heavier storms in eastern NM. Storms will end
by 06Z tonight as skies clear from the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Gusty winds will accompany isolated to scattered showers and storms
today and tomorrow, which will generally favor areas along and east
of the central mountain chain. Precipitation will generally be light
(<0.25"), but a few areas could receive greater than 0.5" in the
eastern plains. Dry storms will continue to be a concern in western
NM today and tomorrow afternoon given that ERCs are above the 90th
percentile in southwestern NM, but coverage will be limited. Dry
weather prevails this weekend as temperatures heat up to the highest
values of the season. The deep mixing will drop afternoon humidities
below 10% in most of western NM, with a few areas as low as 5% near
the AZ border.

Disagreement remains high among models in regard to the upper-level
pattern early to mid next week. A trough over the Great Basin may
increase wind speeds (resulting in elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions), but some models keep these stronger winds off
to the west of us and keep ridging (and light winds) over New
Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  56  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  86  44  86  43 /  10   0   0   0
Cuba............................  88  52  88  54 /  10   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  89  48  89  47 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  85  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  89  51  90  50 /   0   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  88  52  89  54 /   0   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  89  59  90  61 /  20  10  10   0
Datil...........................  87  53  88  55 /  10  10  10   0
Reserve.........................  94  48  95  49 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  98  51  98  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  80  45  80  47 /  30   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  82  57  85  60 /  30  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  85  52  86  57 /  40  20  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  80  48  83  51 /  50  10  10   0
Red River.......................  71  41  73  44 /  60  10  10   0
Angel Fire......................  75  36  78  39 /  50  10  10   0
Taos............................  83  47  86  47 /  40  10  10   0
Mora............................  80  46  83  51 /  50  20  10   0
Espanola........................  90  55  93  56 /  30  10   5   0
Santa Fe........................  85  56  87  60 /  30  20  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  88  56  92  58 /  20  20   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  65  94  67 /  20  20   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  94  64  95  64 /  20  20   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  63  97  62 /  20  20   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  63  97  64 /  20  20   0   0
Belen...........................  97  61  97  60 /  20  20   5   0
Bernalillo......................  95  61  97  63 /  20  20   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  96  60  97  60 /  20  20   0   0
Corrales........................  96  61  97  63 /  20  20   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  96  61  97  61 /  20  20   0   0
Placitas........................  91  62  93  64 /  20  20   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  95  62  96  64 /  20  20   0   0
Socorro.........................  98  66  99  66 /  10  20  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  88  57  88  58 /  20  20   0   0
Tijeras.........................  89  58  90  60 /  20  20   0   0
Edgewood........................  88  54  89  55 /  20  20   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  50  90  52 /  20  20  10   0
Clines Corners..................  84  53  86  55 /  20  20  10   0
Mountainair.....................  89  56  90  58 /  20  20  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  88  56  89  57 /  20  20  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  92  62  93  65 /  20  20  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  85  57  88  61 /  30  20  10   0
Capulin.........................  81  51  83  52 /  30  20  10  10
Raton...........................  85  49  88  51 /  40  20  10   0
Springer........................  86  49  89  52 /  40  20  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  83  50  86  54 /  40  20  10   0
Clayton.........................  87  59  91  59 /  10  20  20  10
Roy.............................  84  54  88  55 /  30  20  10  10
Conchas.........................  91  60  96  61 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  90  59  94  60 /  30  20  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  89  59  94  63 /  10  20  20  10
Clovis..........................  90  62  94  65 /   5  30  20  10
Portales........................  92  60  96  65 /   5  30  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  93  60  97  63 /  20  30  10   5
Roswell.........................  97  66 100  69 /  10  20  10   0
Picacho.........................  92  60  94  63 /  30  20  10   0
Elk.............................  90  58  92  61 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...16