940
FXUS63 KDLH 201740
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1140 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a warm weekend and early next week, a pattern shift to
  more normal winter-like regime will occur starting mid-week.

- There are mixed signals regarding the potential for more
  widespread precipitation/snow next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Today - Early Friday:

The Northland is located in the warm sector of a low pressure
system centered in northern Manitoba as of very early this
morning. Plenty of low-level moisture in a warm advection regime has
kept scattered, light rain showers and drizzle going across
much of the Northland. Can`t rule out some snowflakes mixing in
at times during the current overnight/early morning hours, but
surface air temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40F should
keep precipitation predominately liquid. No snow accumulations
expected. In addition to the precipitation, very low stratus
cloud decks and the lingering surface moisture will keep fog
going for much of the Northland through much of the morning,
with visibilities down to 1/4 to 1 mile in spots through mid-
morning. The potential for widespread dense fog remains very low
(20% chance or less). Both visibilities and precipitation should
end from west to east as we progress through the morning into
early afternoon as a cold front associated with the low pressure
to our north slides east across the Northland and brings a drier
and airmass into the region. The cloud cover is likely to hang
on through the daylight hours, so have knocked down high
temperatures a few degrees today, ranging from the upper 30s
north to low/mid 40s south.

While most areas stay dry tonight, some cold-air advection
wrapping around in cyclonic flow behind the cold front along
with some weak shortwave troughing aloft could be just enough to
produce some sporadic light snow showers in the Borderlands,
northern St. Louis County, and Lake/Cook counties tonight into
early Friday morning. Accumulations should remain limited, up to
a couple tenths of an inch at best. Low temperatures bottom out
in the 20s tonight.

Friday - This weekend:

Mostly dry weather sets up for Friday into this weekend as a
couple rounds of high pressure move across the Upper Midwest.
One exception to this will be another round of shortwave
troughing/energy aloft interacting with a weak cold front moving
across the Northland from the west on Saturday. There may be
just enough moisture with this system to squeeze out some very light
rain and/or snow in the tip of the Arrowhead (10-20% chance).
Very little to no accumulations expected. For most of the
Northland, the main sensible weather with this system will be
increased cloud cover. Outside of cloudier conditions on
Saturday, expect more sun than not for Friday into this weekend.

Aside from cooler high temperatures in the 30s to low 40s on
Friday, high temperatures going into this weekend should be 5-10
degrees above normal. This means high temperatures in the upper
30s to 40s. For comparison, average high temperatures for this
coming weekend range from 30-37 degrees.

Next Week:

The forecast has not changed substantially with regards to the
more active weather pattern for next week and more winter-like
temperatures arriving mid-next week into early December. We
start out Monday and Tuesday of next week with above normal
temperatures given southerly flow on the back side of departing
high pressure and under some broader ridging aloft. Look for
high temperatures widespread in the low 40s to around 50F on
Monday and upper 30s to mid 40s on Tuesday. Temperatures swing
much colder and more winter-like starting Wednesday and
continuing into at least early December, as there is high
confidence/agreement amongst global model ensembles in below-
normal temperatures.

While confidence in colder temperatures arriving starting mid-
next week is high, there is more of a mixed signal when it comes
to precipitation potential, type, and timing with a pair of
low pressure systems next week. The general pattern trend in
global deterministic and ensemble guidance has been for a
shortwave trough aloft over the Pacific northwest on Sunday to
slide east, deepen, and become a cut-off low somewhere over the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday-Wednesday. At the
same time, a cut off low over Baja California into the Four
Corners region this coming weekend is forecast to move northeast
through the Rockies and central Plains and then open up into a
trough and track through the Great Lakes Tuesday. There remains
questions on how/if the surface low pressure systems associated
with this two upper-level features will interact with one
another, or be more of a one-two punch of precipitation for
portions of the central U.S./Midwest early to mid-next week. The
exact tracks these systems take and timing relative to the
incoming colder air by mid week will determine both how much
moisture will be available to produce precipitation in the
Northland and what type of precipitation we may see: mainly
rain or mainly snow, a wintry mix, or some sort of transition as
the systems move through. We will continue to monitor trends
for next week closely as the forecast is likely to change. For
now, ensemble probabilities of appreciable snow remain low,
highlighted by NBM 72-hour snow probabilities from the 06Z 11/20
suite of models for our area from 6 PM Monday - 6 PM Thursday
of:

 >= 1": 10-40%, highest in northern Minnesota
 >= 4": 20% or less, highest in northern Minnesota
 >= 6": ~10% or less, highest in northern Minnesota

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

MVFR ceilings persist through today as a post-cool frontal
regime slowly decreases sky cover northwest to southeast
tonight. A resurgence of MVFR ceilings sets up again though
after 06Z first in the Borderlands then into the US Hwy 2
corridor towards sunrise. A few snow showers are possible in the
Arrowhead 09-15Z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Southwest winds this morning across western Lake Superior turn
more westerly to northwesterly this afternoon early Friday.
Gusts up to 20-25 knots and waves of 3 to 5 feet are possible
from Grand Marais to Grand Portage where a Small Craft Advisory
is in effect through this morning. There will be a brief drop in
wind gusts below 20 kt this afternoon and evening before
additional wind gusts to around 20-25 kt return for Grand Marais
to Grand Portage and in the Outer Apostle Islands tonight into
early Friday morning. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be
needed tonight (30-50% chance) for those wind gusts and
potential waves in the Outer Apostles of 3-5 feet.

Northwest winds continue into Friday and gradually weaken, then
turn southwest on Saturday with gusts of less than 20 kt.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Rothstein