601
FXUS63 KDLH 281123
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
623 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of Dense Fog this morning will dissipate a few hours
  after sunrise

- A Frost Advisory has been issued for Iron and Ashland counties
  for tonight into Friday morning.

- Low chance (20-30%) of precipitation this afternoon into
  tomorrow from the Brainerd Lake Region into NW WI. Better
  chances (40-60%) return on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Current Conditions:

A cold front continues to sag south this morning with radar showing
some lingering echoes across Itasca county and down into Burnett.
The general trend over the last several hours has been for warming
cloud tops and lower rainfall rates. Visibility sensors across the
region are also showing areas of dense fog in northern MN and
portions of NW WI. Fog will start to erode a few hours after
sunrise.

Today:

Cooler air combined with the northeast flow across the region will
lead to high temps in the 60s for areas near Lake Superior. Farther
away from the Lake highs will be able to climb into the 70s. We have
added some low chance PoPs (20-30%) this afternoon as a weak
shortwave moves across the Brainerd Lakes region into NW WI. This is
best seen using isentropic fields where the 300K surface shows an
area of favorable pressure advection moving across our southern tier
counties this afternoon and into tomorrow morning.

Friday:

We are still anticipating some cooler temperatures Friday morning.
However, the shortwave mentioned above bringing some precipitation
and consequently more clouds does throw us a bit of a curve ball. As
such, we have increased temperatures a few degrees but Ashland and
Iron Counties look to be far enough east that they may escape the
cloud cover and see some rapid radiational cooling. A Frost Advisory
for Friday morning for these two counties has been issued.
Precipitation chances decrease through the morning hours and
southerly flow starts to stream back across the region. Highs will
climb back into the 70s except along the North Shore where highs
will be in the 60s.

Weekend - Early Next Week:

A Rex Blocking pattern sets up between an anticyclone over Manitoba
and an upper level low over the Northern Plains this weekend. There
still remains some uncertainty as to the overall placement of the
features which will have a great deal of impact on our precipitation
chances. For now, the 00Z suite of deterministic guidance favors
placing the low over SD leading to our CWA just being on the cusp of
showery activity. The NBM is keeping the weekend dry with highs in
the upper 70s. But will have to closely monitor where the block sets
up as it would at the very least introduce diurnally driven showers.

The better chances for precipitation arrive on Tuesday as a cold
front swings across the region. At this point, severe weather
chances do not look favorable. Lack of bulk shear is the most
limiting factor, but could still get a few storms as weak
instability will be present. Behind this front we will see another
stint of cooler weather with highs on Wednesday in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Areas of dense fog this morning are expected to clear up a couple
hours after sunrise. Satellite shows an MVFR stratus deck sweeping
in from the east that will impact most of the terminals through the
morning hours. As we head into the afternoon skies are expected to
clear with a return of widespread VFR conditions. Overnight, there
will be potential for some patchy fog to form once again.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Northeasterly winds are streaming across the Lake today with a few
gusts upwards of 20 kts. A fewer higher gusts may be reported at the
head of the Lake as funneling may lead to some speed enhancements.
Wave action will remain between 2 and 4 ft through most of the day
with tapering effects in the afternoon. Look for winds to turn to
out of the east on Friday with less wave action due to wind speeds
dropping to 5 kts or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010-011-
     018-019-026.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ008-009.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for WIZ003-004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ143>146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ147-
     148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt