614
FXUS63 KDLH 290700
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
200 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Back to average temperatures for one day, then trending above
  average into the weekend and early next week.

- Quiet weather through Friday, then some showers possible
  Saturday.

- A larger system may bring widespread rain early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Some post-cold frontal stratus clouds are scattered about the
region early this morning, especially around and north of the
Iron Range. These clouds should stick around through the morning
and early afternoon with just enough moisture, a weak trough
aloft, and cold air advection morphing these into more of a
stratocumulus layer by afternoon. Other than that, some breezy
west winds today and temperatures that will be cooler relative
to where we`ve been, but actually around seasonal averages for
this time of year. Tonight, high pressure settles in, so expect
clear skies and widespread below freezing temperatures.

Friday and beyond, not much changes from the previous forecast.
Warm air advection may result in a few showers on Saturday.
Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT:

As of 330 PM... Storms continued over central and southern
Minnesota in the warm sector of a nascent low pressure system
centered near STC. The warm front extended eastward roughly
along MN/WI-70 while a cold front was farther west over
southwest Minnesota. Temperatures were in the upper 50s and low
60s over western Wisconsin into central Minnesota with dewpoints
in the 50s. The 18Z MPX sounding revealed two elevated mixed
layers which were keeping the eastward extent of convection
limited. Hodographs over east-central Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin were supportive of supercells capable of large hail
and tornadoes. The main question is whether storms can become
surface-based. Storms are expected to lift northeastward into
the Brainerd Lakes and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon
and this evening. Areas of northwest Wisconsin and adjacent
portions of east-central Minnesota saw partial sunshine this
afternoon which will aid in storm development and maintenance.

Precipitation over north-central Minnesota will persist this
evening in response to the strengthening low pressure. Look for
that precipitation to persist and propagate eastward over the
Arrowhead by late evening.

Partial clearing is expected as the precipitation dwindles
tonight.

THURSDAY THRU THE WEEKEND:

Behind the departing cold front tonight, a cooler and drier air
mass will sweep into our region for Thursday. High temperatures
will trend noticeably cooler and near to slightly above
normal;, generally topping out in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
Partial clearing is expected early, particularly south of US-2.
By late morning, cold air advection atop modest warming should
permit development of a broad shallow cumulus field. Gusty west
to northwest winds will make it feel a bit brisk throughout the
day. These winds will gradually diminish as we head through the
afternoon and cold air advection weakens, setting the stage for
a quiet and chilly evening with lows dipping into the 20s.

Quiet and pleasant weather holds across the area on Friday as
the surface high pressure slides to our east. Winds will be
lighter, and temperatures will quickly rebound into the upper
40s to upper 50s under plentiful sunshine. Highs Friday will be
5 to 12 degrees above normal. As we head into the weekend,
return flow will pull even warmer air northward, resulting in
temperatures climbing back to ten to twenty degrees above
normal. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s to upper 50s and
lower 60s Saturday and Sunday, while overnight lows remain well
above freezing.

A warm front will slowly lift northward across the Midwest into
southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin by Sunday morning.
Isentropic ascent north of the front enhanced by a northeastward
propagating shortwave trough will bring a chance of showers to
areas south of US-2 in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Rain amounts
should be light.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

By Monday and Tuesday, the chance for widespread precipitation
return as a larger and better organized storm system moves into
the central CONUS. Models are split on how that system will
evolve. The latest GFS points to a cutoff low developing over
the central Plains while the ECMWF features a more progressive
trough lifting northeastward across the Upper Midwest. Cloud
cover and periods of rain will keep conditions somewhat dreary,
though temperatures are expected to remain on the mild side for
late October. Forecast models suggest that this system could
bring a beneficial soaking rain to much of the region before
precipitation gradually tapers off toward the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Post-cold frontal stratus clouds are scattered about, leading to
broken MVFR ceilings at times. This will be a prevalent feature,
especially at DLH/HIB/INL, throughout the night and into
tomorrow. Expect varying ceiling heights between VFR/MVFR. Other
than that, expect breezy west winds through Thursday. Lingering
clouds will clear out for Thursday evening, leading to VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Expect gusty west winds through today. Small Craft Advisories
are in effect. High pressure moves in tonight and winds will
correspondingly lighten up. High pressure will remain around
Friday and Friday night, leading to light winds. Winds become
east/northeasterly Saturday, but remain light in speed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Dry weather is in the forecast with high pressure today and
Friday. Min RH today will remain above 40 percent, and for most
places above 50 percent. High pressure will result in slightly
drier conditions Friday with parts of northwest Wisconsin seeing
min RH values around the 30 to 40 percent range, but with light
winds once again. More moisture moves in Saturday and Sunday
with some rain chances at times. Fire weather conditions are
expected to be minimal the next few days.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT
     this evening for LSZ121-140>145-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ146-
     147-150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JDS
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS