105
FXUS63 KIND 162245
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
545 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry the rest of the weekend with increasing rain chances
  Monday night into Tuesday

- Lower chances for rain midweek with chances increasing
  again Thursday into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

The main focus for the rest of today is the elevated fire weather
danger ongoing across the state. Northwesterly wind gusts up to 25-
30 mph combining with minimum RH values of 18-25 percent are
resulting in an elevated fire weather risk through around sunset.
Latest ACARs sounding shows a deepening mixed PBL up to 1 km agl
working to mix down stronger gusts to the surface as well as very
dry air aloft. Kept dew point and RH forecasts well below most
guidance while the temperature forecast for this afternoon remains
around the NBM95th percentile with most locations in the mid 50s.

With the hard freezes over the last few weeks, herbaceous fuels
such as grasses have fully cured and will be more susceptible to
these lower RH values which will create a favorable environment for
fire spread. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged today unless
taking proper precautions. With all that in mind, will issue an SPS
highlighting the fire danger for today.

Tonight...

Expect wind gusts to diminish towards sunset as mixing shuts off and
a nocturnal inversion becomes established. High pressure centered
over the Northern Plains shifts southeastward to Indiana by early
Monday morning creating optimal conditions for radiational cooling as
winds become calm under clear skies. With such a dry atmosphere in
place, expect temperatures to plummet after sunset with lows
reaching the upper 20s to low 30s by the morning.

Monday...

Sunny, dry, and calm weather start the work week as high pressure
remains the main weather influence for one more day. Winds will be
much lighter compared to Sunday as there will be little to no
pressure gradient and no low level jet with high pressure overhead.
Mixing won`t be as deep either, but with the cooler airmass pushing
off to the northeast, the low level temperature profile with sunny
skies supports highs in the low to mid 50s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Ensemble guidance is trending towards a pattern change this week
with multiples chances for rain. Aloft, the large-scale pattern over
the US is dominated by west coast ridging and east coast troughing.
The weather in Indiana has been relatively quiet for the past week
with generally northwesterly flow aloft and a storm track well to
the north.

Going forward, ensemble guidance shows a reversal of the large-scale
setup with troughing over the west and weak ridging taking shape
over the east. At the surface, high pressure looks to become
established over the southeastern US. This configuration should lead
to abundant moisture return north over the Plains/lower Mississippi
Valley. Additionally, a baroclinic zone likely sets up somewhere
over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Though details differ, various
deterministic guidance shows multiple pockets of energy ejecting
from the broader western trough eastward into the Midwest. Each of
these systems has the potential to increased rainfall potential to
Indiana.

The first such system looks to arrive early as Monday night. Despite
this relatively near-term system, there remains uncertainty within
guidance. The primary source of uncertainty lies within the amount
and coverage of rain expected to develop ahead of the low as it
approaches. Various models are in relatively good agreement with the
surface low and its strength, position, and timing. However,
differences in the magnitude of low-level moisture return are
apparent. Models with higher moisture tend to show more
precipitation and vice versa. As of right now, trends have been
towards a slightly drier and faster solution. Our most likely
scenario is that of numerous scattered showers mainly during the
first half of the day Tuesday. Amounts look light, generally under a
quarter of an inch with the highest amounts further south.

As the Tuesday system departs, guidance shows abundant low-level
moisture lingering over the region. Little in the way of an air mass
change appears likely with diminishing winds. Forecast soundings
show broad subsidence aloft. This setup appears conducive for fog,
especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, fog
potential depends on how quickly the low departs and how much
clearing we see. A residual low-level stratus deck with limited fog
is equally possible.

A second, potentially stronger, system looks to develop by late
week. Guidance shows the baroclinic zone moving northward a bit
which may lead to a gradual warm up. Various deterministic guidance
shows multiple rounds of precipitation riding northward along the
baroclinic zone, which is shown in a SW to NE fashion across
Indiana. Forecast uncertainty increases quickly by this point, as
guidance seems to be struggling with a potential interaction between
the polar and subtropical jets. Despite this, enough of a signal
exists for likely PoPs later this week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some passing high
clouds will be around for much of the period, then clouds will begin
to thicken and lower late.

Winds will continue to diminish as high pressure moves in tonight.
Winds will remain less than 10kt Monday and gradually back to the
southwest.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...50