235
FXUS62 KJAX 271720
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
120 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Southerly flow around the mid/upper level low pressure to the west
of the region will continue to increase moisture levels with PWATs
pushing close to 2 inches this afternoon. This combined with
surface heating into the lower 90s and inland moving Gulf/Atlantic
sea breezes will result in scattered to numerous showers and
storms between the US 301 and I-75 corridors. Cooler air aloft
will continue to support strong updrafts and isolated severe
storms with damaging downburst winds and marginally severe hail at
times over inland areas. A slow shift towards Southwest flow
through the evening hours will continue this convection through
sunset with some of the weakening storms actually drifting back
towards the East Coast through midnight, while the rest of the
strong storm activity will shift into inland SE GA as the
Gulf/Atlantic sea breeze merger continues to zipper towards the
NW. Most of the convection should end around midnight with fair
skies and mild temps in the 70s overnight, along with some patchy
inland fog possible towards morning in areas that received
rainfall this afternoon. In addition to this, the increasing low
level SW flow will start convection over the NE Gulf/Big Bend
region towards morning, and a few of this showers/possible
isolated storms may spill into the I-75 corridor near GNV/OCF
around sunrise as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east this period, with
ridge extending across central FL. The resulting low level flow will
prevail from the southwest. This will allow the Gulf sea breeze to
prevail, with it colliding with the east coast sea breeze west of
I95. With ample moisture, and diurnal heating providing instability,
numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be expected each
day this weekend. The greatest chance for storms will be over
eastern counties due to the sea breeze interactions. The convection
will diminish during the evening hours, with mainly dry overnights
forecast. Temperatures will trend a little above normal this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 117 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Surface high pressure will remain centered to the east of the region
this period, with ridging extending across central FL. A weak trough
will develop over the southeastern US. A trough aloft will also
develop over the southeastern US this period.

Above average precipitation chances are expected this period, with
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. Temperatures
will trend near to a little above average through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Inland moving sea breezes from both coasts will still support best
storm chances at GNV/VQQ/JAX and will continue TEMPO groups for
potential gusty wind/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS with storm activity, likely
in the 18-22Z time frame at JAX, 19-23Z time frame at VQQ and
20-24Z time frame at GNV, lesser chances exist the closer to the
Atlantic Coast and will leave PROB30 at CRG/SGJ, and just VCSH at
SSI through the evening hours. Left over VFR convective debris
through the overnight hours, with fairly low fog chances, so will
likely only include the usual MVFR fog at VQQ from 07-11Z. Shower
activity will kick off towards the end of the upcoming TAF period
and will likely add VCSH to all TAF sites after 15Z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Atlantic high pressure will extend its axis westward across the
Florida peninsula through early next week as surface troughing
gradually sharpens over the southeastern states, creating a
prevailing offshore wind flow. Afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will likely push eastward across our local waters
each day, with daily strong storm potential. Daily afternoon into
evening south-southeasterly wind surges expected along the
nearshore waters as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria through this
weekend and into early next week.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate Rip Current Risk will continue
through the upcoming weekend with surf/breakers in the 1-2 ft
range, as a general southwest flow is expected, along with daily
sea breeze in the surf zone during the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  72  92 /  30  60  30  60
SSI  75  91  75  91 /  20  50  30  50
JAX  72  94  73  93 /  30  70  30  70
SGJ  74  92  74  91 /  40  60  30  70
GNV  69  93  70  93 /  30  70  30  70
OCF  72  92  73  91 /  30  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$