632
FXUS62 KJAX 020225
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
925 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday. Tuesday
Morning: Southeast GA & Suwannee River Valley. Tuesday Midday &
Afternoon: Remainder of NE Florida. Main Strong Storm Hazards: Gusty
40-60 mph & Isolated Tornadoes

- High Risk for Rip Currents Northeast FL Beaches Today, Moderate for

- Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters on Tuesday

- Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA Wed &Thu Mornings

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas

&&

.UPDATE...
Overall forecast is on track this evening as a frontal boundary to
the south across central FL will lift northward overnight. Light
showers have been intermittent across the area the past few hours
with recent radar trends showing more showers organizing west of
US441 across southwest GA with some of this activity stretching
eastward towards Brunswick. Expect previously mentioned heavier
showers to spread ENE along and north of US84 into Waycross and
Jesup. Southward to I-10, shower coverage will be more isolated to
scattered in nature with pockets of more coverage west into the
Suwannee Valley. A few isolated T`storms may develop offshore of the
coast late tonight as a weak low forms and moves northeast, with
T`storm activity over the Gulf coast limited until well after
midnight which will likely remain west of the Suwannee Valley before
sunrise and be elevated. Lows will be in the 50s along and north of
I-10 and in the low 60s along the NE FL coast and north central FL.

After sunrise, a cold front will move eastward through the FL big
bend as a surface low treks from Apalachicola ENE across SE GA to
Savannah by the afternoon. Isolated T`storms, mainly elevated, may
become surface based over the Suwannee Valley by mid morning as some
instability will 300-600 J/kg will shift inland from the Nature
coast towards I-75. However, mostly cloudy skies and poor lapse
rates will be limiting factors on isolates strong to severe
development. Increasing SRH (helicity) values over 200 m2/s2 will be
present as low level winds 2.0 kft above the surface rise to 40-45
knots and any T`storms that can tap into the meager instability may
give pose a brief tornado risk along with gusty winds 40-60 mph.
This potential may stretch east towards highway 301, but should
decrease closer to the NE FL coast. As heavier showers and the cold
front move off the first coast by mid afternoon, skies will become
partly cloudy with breezy SW winds 15-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph
turning westerly by late afternoon. Overall rainfall amounts will
highest NW of US84 between 0.50-0.75 inches with localized 2 inch
amounts, with less amounts under a quarter of an inch into coastal
NE FL.

Highs will vary north to south with upper 60s along the Altamaha
river basin to the upper 70s over NE FL and around 80F over north
central FL and the southern St Johns river basin.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front is mostly south of the area with a prevailing north to
northeast flow. This front will start to move back north over the
area this evening while a weak low pressure trough/low develops off
the southeast GA coast and moves northeast. Meanwhile, an area of
low pressure will form near the western FL panhandle by 1 AM, and
tracks northeastward. The low will reach into the south central GA
area by about 7 AM Tuesday, and by then the warm front will push up
into southeast GA.

Mainly isolated shower activity over the area at this time. A small
batch of showers over the FL panhandle/Big Bend at noon, that will
be headed into southeast GA by late aftn and this evening.

Overnight, a stronger cold front will approach from the west and we
will see more numerous showers and possibly isolated isolated storm
chances after midnight, especially for inland southeast Georgia and
over the local waters. Higher storm coverage / strong storm
potential will increase after daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will move southeast across the region during the day
Tuesday. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop
along and ahead of the front. A few strong thunderstorms are
expected. Based on frontal timing, there will be a large range in
temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the middle 60s over inland SE
GA, to near 80 south of Gainesville.

The front will move off to the southeast Tuesday night, as high
pressure builds from the northwest. The high will build to the north
Wednesday. Cold advection will a northerly flow will keep
temperatures below normal Wednesday with high s about 10 degrees
lower than Wednesday. Ridging will remain in place into Wednesday
night, with lows dipping into the middle 30s over inland SE GA, and
upper 30s to lower 40s over inland NE FL. The northerly flow down
the coast, will keep temperatures a little milder at beachfront
communities. Frost will be expected over inland SE GA Tuesday night
and Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure ridging will weaken across the area Thursday, as
another low begins to lift northeast out of the Gulf. This low will
then track northeast across the southeastern US Friday into Friday
night. The cold front associated with this low will track southeast
into area Friday night, and may stall through Saturday night, before
slowly moving to the south Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure
will build to the north Monday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be forecast from
Friday through Sunday night.

Temperatures will be above normal through Saturday, then near to
below Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
The 00Z TAF period begins with IFR ceilings all sites except KGNV
where scattered clouds 1.5 kft will trend broken through 06Z. A lull
in rain activity is present and will slowly fill in after 06Z just
north and west of the Duval county terminals, then showers will
spread into JAX, VQQ, and CRG after 12Z from the west. Expect IFR
ceilings will lower to LIFR ceilings after 06Z with TEMPO
restrictions included at every sites save for KSGJ as a warm front
lifts northward overnight. Winds from the northeast 5-10 knots will
become variable with the lifting front after 06Z with southerly
winds around 10 knots developing by 12Z across the terminals. Then,
heavier showers ahead of a cold front moving in from the west will
move through the TAF sites from 14Z-18Z at GNV and 17Z-20Z for the
remaining sites with broken ceilings 1.5-2.0 kft. Southwest winds 12-
15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots will prevail as a cold front and
heavier showers move through the TAF sites, then turning westerly to
around 10 knots near the end of the period with skies lifting from
MVFR to VFR levels by 20Z at GNV and 23Z at SGJ under broken mid to
high level clouds.

&&

.MARINE...


A frontal boundary south of the area will lift north across the area
as a warm front late tonight, as an area of low pressure lifts
northeast out of the Gulf. As this low tracks northeast across the
southeastern states, a cold front will move through Tuesday. A round
of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected over portions of the
area waters, beginning early Tuesday morning until Tuesday night.
Another frontal system affects the area waters on Friday and
Saturday increasing the chances of showers and higher winds again.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Tuesday
              NE FL Moderate Tuesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


A warm front will lift north across region through Tonight. A cold
front will move southeast across the area Tuesday. As a result,
Showers with embedded thunderstorms can be expected Tonight and
Tuesday. High pressure will build to the northwest Tuesday, and to
the north Wednesday into Thursday. An area of low pressure will lift
northeast out of the Gulf late in the week, providing another chance
for showers and storms from Friday through the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Significant fog is not expected
Tonight. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  68  36  57 /  90  90   0   0
SSI  58  73  44  62 /  70  60   0   0
JAX  60  78  44  64 /  50  70   0   0
SGJ  63  80  52  67 /  30  50   0   0
GNV  61  79  48  68 /  40  60   0   0
OCF  62  78  52  68 /  20  60   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 1 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-
     454.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$