110
FXUS62 KJAX 131848 CCA
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
148 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Next Week. Severe to
  Extreme Drought over Inland Southeast GA and the Northern
  Suwannee Valley, Likely to expand in coverage during the
  next week

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Northeast FL Beaches Friday

- Increasing Late Night/Early Morning Fog this Weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1223 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Dry and warmer temperatures this afternoon as high pressure
continues to shift away from the area. Current satellite obs
depict PWATs hovering around 0.6 inch and aren`t expected to rise
much through the day as north- northwesterly flow continues to
bring dry air across the area. Clear skies will prevail through
the afternoon hours as daytime highs get into the lower 70s area-
wide, with cooler temps along the coast as the Atlantic sea
breeze begins its push inland. By this evening, Lows will dip into
the 40s for most locations, with warmer Lows in the lower 50s
along coastal locations. We could see some patchy fog develop over
inland NE FL through the overnight hours into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1223 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

High pressure, centered to the north Friday morning, will settle
overhead Friday afternoon through Friday night, then center just to
the south Saturday in to Saturday night.

The weather will remain dry this period, with clear skies.

Sunny days will allow temperatures to rise. On Friday, temperatures
will be coolest at the beaches due to a northeast flow across the
relatively cooler coastal waters. On Saturday, highs will approach
80 for much of the area. Due to the proximity of the Atlantic
waters, beach communities will be a little cooler. The clear skies
will yield lows below seasonal averages both Friday night and
Saturday night.

Southwest flow across the Gulf is expected to bring enough low level
moisture onshore to produce patchy fog, mainly for NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1223 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

The high pressure ridge will slip further to the south Sunday, as a
cold front approaches from the north. At this time, looks like the
ridge will hold enough to cause the front to pass to the north.
While an increase in cloud cover is expected, Sunday will be a dry
day. Above average temperatures will continue Sunday into Sunday
night. Southwest to west flow across Gulf could bring fog ashore
into inland NE FL Sunday night.

The high pressure ridge become centered more to the southeast early
next week. Flow around the back side of the high will result in an
increasingly warm and moist airmass. A frontal zone is expected to
setup to the north of the region mid week, but should remain to the
north through Thursday. This will pattern will continue the warm and
more moist airmass.

Above normal temperatures are expected throughout this period.

With higher dew points overrunning the relatively cooler waterways,
of the Atlantic coastal waters Wednesday night, fog is possibly,
especially near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions at the regional terminals through the TAF period.
Winds shift to northeasterly as the Atlantic sea breeze develops
and push slowly inland through late afternoon across coastal and
JAX metro sites. Winds will then quickly wane by 00Z Friday.
Patchy Fog may develop over inland locations during the overnight
hours, left mention off for now for any sites. Northeast winds
develop and begin to increase by 14Z/15Z on Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Northwesterly winds over the local waters ahead of a frontal
boundary passage Tonight. Winds shift to become northeasterly on Friday
after the frontal passage and high pressure building into the
area. By Saturday winds shift to become northwesterly as the high
pressure pushes overhead. By the later part of the upcoming
weekend, the high pressure will shift southward which will allow
for breezy southerly-southwesterly winds to develop over the local
waters.

.Rip Currents...Prevailing northwesterly winds this morning and
low surf heights will result in a low risk at area beaches this
afternoon. A moderate risk of Rips for northeast Florida beaches
on Friday as northeasterly onshore flow develops. Low risks of
Rips return this weekend as winds shift to become offshore once
again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  75  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  51  69  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  45  74  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  52  74  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  47  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$