208
FXUS62 KJAX 151301
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
901 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure is centered over the Ohio River Valley with its
axis dipping down into the TN River Valley. This will all a
predominant onshore easterly flow to develop across the region.
The Gulf of Mexico, west coast sea breeze will push into the I-75
corridor as well. Daytime heating will increase convective
instability and allow scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon as the two sea breezes
merge near the I-75 corridor. The activity will drift back toward
the east as it diminishes late in the afternoon into the evening.
A mainly clear night is forecast for Tonight. Above normal temperatures
are forecast Today, with mid 90s common inland. Lows will range
from the lower to mid 70s over the area Tonight. No changes to the
current forecast. High resolution models continue to showcase this
scenario.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Sunday...High pressure starts to build into the Carolinas and
moisture from dissipating frontal boundary that was north of the
region will push into the local area as Easterly low level flow
become more breezy along the Atlantic Coast. Temperatures will
remain above normal over inland areas in the middle 90s along
with heat indices still in the 100-105F range, while the onshore
flow will keep highs closer to 90F along the I-95 corridor and
Atlantic beaches. Scattered showers and storms are expected area
wide with rainfall chances in the 30-50% range.

Sunday Night...Easterly flow continues with showers/storms over
the Atlantic Coastal waters and pushing into the Atlantic Coastal
Counties at times and this will keep temps elevated in the upper
70s/near 80 along the coast and lower to middle 70s over inland
areas with mainly dry conditions.

Monday...High pressure ridge builds down the SE US coastline into
the region with breezy Easterly flow at 15-25 mph along the
Atlantic Coast and 10-20 mph over inland areas. Meanwhile drier
airmass will build in aloft but at the lower levels the
moist/onshore flow should help to develop scattered showers over
the Atlantic Coastal waters that will move onshore, mainly across
NE FL and become embedded with storms during the afternoon hours
over inland areas. Max temps will return closer to normal values
in the upper 80s along the Atlantic Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor
with lower 90s expected over inland areas.

Monday Night...Breezy easterly flow remains in place at the
Atlantic Beaches with scattered showers/isolated storms over the
Atlantic Coastal waters moving onshore into the coastal counties
at times through the night. Mainly dry and mild over inland areas
with lows in the lower 70s, while lows in the mid/upper 70s are
expected along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

High pressure ridge axis remains in place at the surface north of
the region through the period with breezy Easterly flow at 15-25
mph along the Atlantic Coastal areas and 10-20 mph over inland
areas each day. This flow pattern will return temps to near normal
values with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic
Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over inland areas. The
onshore flow will continue scattered showers/storms over the
Atlantic Coastal waters through the period that will move onshore
each day as the East Coast sea breeze moves well inland. Rainfall
chances will be in the 30-50% range early in the week, with
highest chances across NE FL, then as mid level trough pushes in
from the East by the Thursday/Friday time frame, which will bring
deeper moisture and increase rainfall chances into the 60-80%
range for NE FL and into the 40-60% range for SE GA as the East
Coast sea breeze become more active as it moves onshore each day,
along with more convection over the Atlantic Coastal Waters
pushing onshore into coastal areas through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Fog will dissipate around the beginning of this period. Convection
is expected to develop inland early this afternoon, then move
toward the I75 corridor in the mid afternoon. KGNV is expected to
be affected by the afternoon convection. Any convection that does
develop will diminish this evening, with prevailing VFR conditions
forecast for Tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

High pressure will build to the north through Tonight, then to the
northeast Sunday. High pressure will remain centered to the
northeast through the upcoming week, leading to a prolonged period
of onshore flow. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible
around the middle of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate through the weekend

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  72  95  71 /   0  10  30   0
SSI  89  78  87  77 /   0  10  30  20
JAX  94  74  91  74 /   0  10  30  10
SGJ  89  74  89  76 /   0  10  40  20
GNV  95  73  93  72 /  60  20  60  10
OCF  93  73  93  72 /  60  20  70  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$