750
FXUS62 KJAX 311305
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
905 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast is mainly on track. New model runs shows rain showers
with embedded thunderstorms coming in slightly sooner than
previously anticipated. Rain extends a little bit further south,
especially along the coast with slightly higher probabilities for
rain overnight. The risk for severe storms is still anticipated
over southeast Georgia this afternoon, generally between 3-5pm
with the pre-frontal squall line.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A warm, muggy and cloudy morning with low stratus and patchy fog
across most locations in the wake of a lifting trough axis and
yesterday`s rainfall. After low clouds break apart and lift mid-
morning, warm and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected
for most locations through mid-afternoon ahead of an approaching
pre-frontal squall line. High temperatures will top out in the 80s
today, including toward the Atlantic coast where a late afternoon
sea breeze will be pinned under increasing SW steering flow. With
the increase in boundary layer winds this afternoon, breezy gusts
of 20-25 mph are expected into the early evening.

The risk of severe storms increases across SE GA this afternoon,
generally between 3-5 pm as a pre-frontal squall line approaches.
As diurnal instability increases, a few airmass showers and isolated
storms are possible mainly north of the I-10 corridor, as well as
toward the Atlantic coast near the lingering east coast sea breeze
ahead of this stronger convective line. Recent trends in convective
allow models indicate the main squall line beginning to break apart
in structure as it approaches our inland SE GA zones late this
afternoon as drier air infiltrates from the WSW and stronger mid
level lift ejects NE of the region. The peak in strong to severe
storm risk is expected this afternoon and early evening between 4
pm and 8 pm across SE GA and portions of NE FL generally north of
the I-10 corridor. Storm strength and coverage is expected to
decrease as the line approaches NE FL toward 8 pm as dry air
continues to invade.

Severe weather ingredients today include high CAPE and seasonally
steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 degC/km under 0-6 km
bulk shear of 40-50 kts across SE GA and portions of NE FL
generally north of the I-10 corridor this afternoon and evening,
which both hail risk and downdraft wind risk. 850 mb jet winds of
40-50 kts peak in intensity near the Ocmulgee and Altamaha River
basins this afternoon between 5 pm and 8 pm, which will bring a
damaging winds risk. The greater tornado risk across SE GA will
also focus in this area before the low level jet core lifts off
of to the NE of the region.

With the squall line beginning to break apart as it moves into
our area, the Enhanced Risk of severe storms (level 3 out of 5)
was adjusted to include locations along and north of a Pearson to
Baxley line today, with the Slight Risk area (level 2 out of 5)
including the remainder of SE GA and portions of NE FL from north
of JAX to Lake City and Bell.

Given the fast motion of storms today, there is little flooding
rainfall risk across SE GA of 30-40 kts. The flood risk is
minimal across NE FL as tonight as the convection will be fading
in coverage and intensity.

Continued with a chance of showers tonight as the surface front
slowly shifts southward across the area, with another round of low
stratus expected and patchy fog through daybreak Tuesday. Mild
low temperatures tonight will range in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

The cold front will stall across north central FL Tuesday morning
then move back north as a warm front Tuesday afternoon. The boundary
will lay out northwest to southeast across area Tuesday evening. A
few showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the boundary lifts
through. Above normal temperatures will continue with highs ranging
from the lower to mid 80s over SE GA to the mid to upper 80s over
NE FL.

The warm front will lift to the north of the area Tuesday night, as
high pressure ridges in from a high centered to the northeast
through Wednesday night. A few showers will be possible north
Tuesday evening, otherwise Tuesday night through Wednesday night
will be dry. Prevailing flow from southeast will keep temperatures
above normal. Inland highs in the lower 90s expected Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east Thursday through
Saturday, with ridging at the surface and aloft providing enough
subsidence for a dry period. Temperatures will run well above normal
through Saturday, with highs inland around 90 common.

The surface high and upper high will both sink to the southeast on
Sunday. This will allow a cold front to approach from the northwest
Sunday. This pattern will result in a low level flow from the
southwest. This will keep the east coast sea breeze from pushing
inland, allowing the warmer air to reach most of the way to the
coast. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

LIFR to MVFR conditions continue at sites this morning, lifting
around 14-18z as low cloud bases begin to MVFR to VFR as low
cloud bases begin to rise. Timing of rain and possible TS differs
a bit between models so have kept PROB30 at this time at SSI and
JAX. Sites south of JAX may see some scattered showers but
confidence is still not high enough to include at this time. Winds
out of the south-southwest will increase after 18z with sustained
speeds 10-12 kts and gusts 18-22 kts at times.

After 00z, SW winds subside with increasing clouds as a weakening
pre-frontal squall line breaks apart across SE GA in the early
evening and drifts southward toward NE FL terminals. There will be
a chance of showers through the night tonight as the front slowly
settles southward across the terminals with another round of low
stratus and fog causing restrictions once again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025

High pressure will extend across south Florida as a weakening
pre-frontal squall line moves approaches from the west today.
Persistent SE winds continue to bring elevated combined seas of
4-6 ft to the outer waters, and continued with the Small Craft
Exercise Caution headline today. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase late this afternoon and into the early evening across the
southeast Georgia waters. Precipitation will decrease in coverage
and intensity tonight as the front begins to stall across north
Florida. Tuesday the front will lift back north as a warm front,
then high pressure builds northward from south Florida Wednesday
and positions northeast of the local waters through the end of the
week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today and Tuesday for all local
beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  61  83  62 /  80  40  10  10
SSI  81  64  79  65 /  50  50  20  10
JAX  86  64  86  64 /  50  30  20  20
SGJ  84  65  83  65 /  30  20  40  20
GNV  85  64  87  64 /  20  10  20  10
OCF  86  65  88  65 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$