217
FXUS62 KJAX 301753
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1253 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas. Practice Fire Safety & Check for
Local Burn Bans

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday. Tuesday
Morning Southeast GA & Suwannee River Valley. Tuesday Midday -
Afternoon: Remainder of NE Florida. Main Strong Storm Hazards: Gusty
40-60 mph & Isolated Tornadoes

- Inland Frost Southeast GA Wednesday and Thursday Mornings

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak cold front will slide south southeast across the region
Tonight. While the front will pass through dry, it will keep clouds
in the forecast through the night. Lows Tonight will run above
average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly dynamic time period from Monday through Tuesday night
as a cold front that sweeps through today will stall to the south on
Monday, only to be forced northward across our area Monday
night. This occurs as a surface low develops in a classic manner
across the northwest Gulf Monday, translates east to northeast,
gradually deepening as a mid level trough moves eastward
through the Midwest and the TN valley. The surface low moves
across the deep south Monday night into Tuesday morning, likely
moving through GA early Tuesday morning. The low pressure system will
shift northeastward Tuesday and off the Mid Atlantic/NC Outer
Banks Tuesday afternoon. An attendant cold front will move across
the region Tuesday from northwest to southeast, ending up just
southeast of the area Tuesday evening, and continuing to push
south of the area Tuesday night.

Considerable clouds on Monday with an overrunning situation
with a chance of showers and areas of rain and a northeast wind
flow. The more showery convective activity may be over the
coastal areas initially where a coastal trough is expected to
form. As the low level winds veer Monday night, a gradual
increase in instability may be realized, but probably not until
well after midnight, and even then the MUCAPE looks to be only
a few hundred J/kg at best.

Ahead of the front on Tuesday, some better instability is expected,
with a low level flow from the south and southwest. The better
instability with MUCAPE of about 300-600 J/kg is south of US Highway
84, and so mainly across northeast FL. This overlap of small CAPE
but high shear (50-65 kt) may support a strong or even an isolated
severe storm with damaging wind or an isolated tornado. Given
the limited instability, the severe threat currently remains low.
Overall, the best chance of precipitation will be through about
Tuesday mid afternoon, with the dynamics lifting out to the
northeast by late Tuesday afternoon and the cold front sweeps
through most of the area.

For temperatures, mild conditions on Monday with highs in the 70s
over northeast FL, but in more cloud cover and the coolest airmass
in southeast GA where highs are limited to the 60s and lower
70s. Mild overnight lows Monday night given the cloud cover and
the veering winds. On Tuesday, highs again limited to the 60s
over well inland southeast GA, and 70s elsewhere. We could reach
80 deg briefly for the southeast-most zones Tuesday ahead of
the front from Marion to Flagler county. Much cooler Tuesday
night as the front moves south of the area on northwest flow,
with lows ranging from the mid 30s inland southeast GA, to 40s
to near 50 over northeast FL.

Rainfall amounts are best over southeast GA at around 0.50 to just
over 1 inch, and 0.50 inches or less over northeast FL. It`s
possible some areas in northeast FL east of Highway 301 may
barely measure 0.10 inches, unfortunately, in this current
drought situation.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry and seasonably cool Wednesday and Thursday with inland frost
potential across SE GA both Wednesday morning and Thursday
morning with weak high pressure dominating north of the region.
The next system will be organizing over the southwest U.S.
Thursday which may spread mid or high clouds into the area
Thursday through Thursday night.

The current model suite remains basically on track with another
frontal system, oriented southwest to northeast, coming across
the deep south on Friday and Saturday. Moisture and mid level
forcing appears more than sufficient for a good chance of showers
on Friday and likely into Saturday with this system. This system
may also be accompanied by a surface wave of low pressure along
the front over the Gulf Coast on Friday and Friday night. At
this time, some small potential for a few thunderstorms over the
weekend, but confidence remains low, with similar amounts of
instability to Tuesday`s forecast. The front will be slow to
move through on Saturday keeping elevated rain chances in the
forecast. Some of the guidance, like the ECMWF, moves the front
southward on Sunday which may significantly decrease rain
chances. Main takeaway is that fronts will be moving into the
area and accompanied by some much needed rainfall for some
locations. Latest climate site rainfall deficits since Sept 1st
are 6-9 inches at Alma, Jacksonville and Craig Airfield, but
3-4 inches at Gainesville.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail this 18z TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...

Weak high pressure will be located to the northeast this afternoon,
with an inverted trough over the coastal waters. A cold front will
move south southeast across area Tonight into Monday. The front will
lift back north across area as a warm front Monday night, as an area
of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf. As this low tracks
northeast across the southeastern US, a cold front will move through
Tuesday. A round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this
frontal passage. High pressure will build to the northwest Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The high will weaken overhead Thursday.
Another low pressure area is expected to lift northeast out of the
Gulf late in the week.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Monday
              NE FL High Monday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture will gradually increase through tonight as a cold front
approaches from the north. This front will move through the area
later tonight, but stall to the south on Monday, only to move back
as a warm front Monday night. There is a chance of showers for the
area on Monday due to moisture overlapping the front. A new cold
front will then approach from the west early Tuesday, bringing much
needed rainfall Tuesday with a chance of a strong thunderstorm
capable of gusty winds and lightning. Gusty southwest winds outside
of thunderstorms are expected Tuesday mainly in northeast FL.
Rainfall will end Tuesday evening as the front presses south of the
area. Dry conditions are expected by Wednesday with lower humidity
under north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  66  53  69 /  10  40  80  90
SSI  57  68  60  73 /  10  30  60  70
JAX  56  72  60  76 /  10  30  50  80
SGJ  62  76  65  79 /  10  30  40  70
GNV  57  76  63  79 /  10  30  40  80
OCF  58  78  63  78 /  10  20  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$