348
FXUS62 KJAX 230528
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1228 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. West-
northwesterly surface winds sustained around 5 knots overnight
will shift to northwesterly by 14Z, with speeds increasing to
around 10 knots. Surface winds will then quickly diminish towards
sunset on Saturday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Little change in the forecast tonight with lows in the mid/upper
30s inland with light northwest winds. The dry airmass and the
stirring winds will help hinder widespread frost formation for
those inland areas, but continued to indicate potential of patchy
to areas frost. Closer to the coast, the winds will stay up close
to 5-9 mph and result in slightly warmer min temps toward the
upper 30s and lower 40s.

For the marine forecast, was considering dropping the SCA for the
nearshore waters, but buoy 41008 has risen back to about 20 kt
recently, and the HREF shows 20 kt wind probabilities reaching up
to 70-100 percent by 03z tonight for most of the nearshore waters.
Therefore, will keeping the nearshore SCA in place. Otherwise,
rest of the marine forecast on track for winds and seas with only
slight changes.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

The trough will slowly move further away to the northeast
tonight, as high pressure builds closer to the west northwest.
Winds will diminish this evening, but enough of a gradient will
persist to keep winds stirring through the night. This stirring of
the winds will minimize the potential for frost tonight, despite
temperatures falling into the middle 30s inland. Lows east of I95
will be milder with lows in the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Cool and very dry northwesterly flow aloft will gradually back
southwesterly through the weekend while a surface ridge builds from
west and rests overhead Sunday. Temperatures will remain quite
chilly through the weekend though afternoon highs will gradually
warm from the low 60s Saturday to the lower 70s by Sunday. Overnight
temperatures are likely to reach the lowest readings so far this
Autumn on Sunday morning. Under light winds and clear skies,
inland temperatures will all to the mid to low 30s across portions
of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley; elsewhere, temperatures will be
warmer, especially at the coast where lows will read in the low
to mid 40s.

Patchy or areas of frost will be more likely Sunday morning given
the calm and near-freezing conditions. Frost development will be
more likely across the Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Rebounding temperatures are expected during the first half of next
week as weakening frontal boundary approaches. That frontal boundary
appears to stall across the area and may bring the potential for a
few mornings of fog, especially Tuesday morning. A more robust
frontal system, supported by a more amplified upper trough, will
push into the area Thursday or Thursday night into Friday next week.
As it does so, the moisture pooling ahead of it should be enough to
support at least a low chance for rain showers. Ensemble soundings,
specifically at KJAX, indicate (with fairly high confidence) that
a stable airmass aloft will inhibit the potential for thunderstorm
development. Temperatures will trend toward the upper 70s through
the week before cold air plunges in from the north once again
next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Trough of low pressure will move off to the northeast through
Tonight, as high pressure builds from the west northwest. The high
will build overhead Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. A
high pressure ridge, centered to the east northeast will stretch
across the region Sunday and Monday. A weak cold front will move
into the region from the north Tuesday night. This boundary will
weaken and dissipate, as ridging builds back Wednesday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low through Saturday
              NE FL Moderate Today, Low Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions will persist through
the afternoon due to breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 25 mph.
Winds will trend weaker over the weekend as high pressure builds
from the west. Temperatures and afternoon humidity will both trend
upward through the weekend and into next week. A weak front will
stall across the area during the middle part of next week before a
stronger front plunges across the area to end the week. Chilly
overnight temperatures may result in patchy fog tonight and again
Sunday morning. The increasing moisture and stalling boundary will
increase fog potential Tuesday and Wednesday morning next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  35  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  65  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  66  37  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  66  45  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  65  37  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  66  37  72  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ450-452-
     454-470-472-474.

&&

$$