422
FXUS63 KJKL 211222
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
722 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder with snow showers expected late morning through mid- to
  late afternoon today (Thursday).

- A large area of widespread steady light snow develops quickly
  late this afternoon or early evening from northwest to
  southeast, and continues through much of the overnight. Snow may
  mix with or change to drizzle toward morning.

- Snow changes to rain toward midday Friday as warmer air moves
  into the area from the west, with the latest changeover at
  higher elevations along the Virginia border.

- Locations most likely to receive impactful snow accumulations
  are those elevations above 1500 feet, mainly this evening into
  the overnight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024

Cold front continues to approach eastern Kentucky from the
northwest as expected. Trimmed PoPs back somewhat for the next few
hours, but not significantly. Updated grids with the latest
observations as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 538 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024

Cold front crosses the area this morning into early afternoon,
allowing for scattered snow showers to develop across eastern
Kentucky, especially northeast of US Highway 421. Gusty winds can
also be expected with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. No snow
accumulation is expected given warm surface temperatures. However,
a post-frontal low moving southeast across the area this evening
into the overnight will push widespread light snow across eastern
Kentucky. Despite marginal surface temperatures in the lower 30s,
have decided to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include much
of the forecast area except for the far southwestern counties.
Decent snow rates in some areas this evening will likely allow for
brief slushy accumulations on some roads, but this will be brief
as any slush should quickly melt. For most locations below
1,500-ft elevation, snow will accumulate primarily on elevated and
grassy surfaces.

A potential complication for the early morning hours Friday will
come with warming temperatures in the dendritic growth zone,
enough so such that a period of fog, drizzle, and even freezing
drizzle cannot be ruled out. However, this is expected to be brief
and not cause any additional impacts at this time.

Yet another wrap-around surface trough will bring another round of
rain and mountain snow Friday afternoon into the overnight, but
warming temperatures will limit any snow accumulations to the
highest of elevations along the Virginia border.

Highs today will only climb slightly from current temperatures in
the upper 30s, with temperatures dropping through the afternoon
behind the cold front passage. As widespread light snow develops
across the area toward sunset, expect temperatures to hover near
or just above freezing in the lower to mid-30s and remain steady
until precipitation ends Friday morning. Highs climb back into the
lower 40s Friday as drier air tries to move in from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024

An upper level low that was forecasted to bring rain, snow, and
breezy winds to the state Thursday, will have moved off to the north
and east, over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states by Saturday.
Some wrap around moisture may linger across extreme eastern portions
of Kentucky leading to a shower or two early. Otherwise, quiet
weather returns to eastern Kentucky for the weekend. Highs Saturday
are forecasted to remain chilly, reaching the upper 40s to near 50.
Lows are expected to be in the upper 20s to low 30s in the valleys,
with mid 30s along ridgetops.  Winds will remain light and gradually
shift from a westerly wind to a southerly wind heading into Sunday.
This warm air advection will aid in temperatures climbing into the
upper 50s, to 60 in some spots. Lows will be in the upper  30s to
low 40s in valleys, and mid 40s along ridgetops.

Sunday evening into Monday the next weather system begins to unfold
across the Dakotas and Central Plains. As this trough over the
Dakotas deepens, a cold front is modeled to traverse Kentucky
Monday. This will give eastern Kentucky its next quick bout of
rain. At current Tuesday looks dry, however that could change with
some model discrepancies beyond Tuesday. Highs Monday are
expected to be warm, in the low 60s, but cooling into the upper
40s to low 50s for Tuesday.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific northwest, a trough of low pressure,
associated with an atmospheric river will quickly eject of out the
Intermountain West and across the Tennessee Valley, Wednesday and
Thursday. At current, this looks to have the potential to be a real
rain maker. Highs both Wednesday and Thursday are forecasted to
range in the upper 40s to low 50s, with lows in the upper 20s to low

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST THU NOV 21 2024

Cold front quickly passes across the area later this morning,
bringing gusty west winds. VFR clouds will lower to high-MVFR at
times in snow shower activity this afternoon, primarily from KJKL
north and east. Low VFR and/or high-MVFR ceilings will then trend
quickly lower to IFR viz and cigs by 22z-24z at most if not all
TAF sites as the next system brings widespread steady snow which
will continue through around 09z Friday. However, low IFR to
high-MVFR cigs will be slow to improve, as fog and drizzle may linger
through 12z-15z before conditions improve.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Friday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-080-086-104-106>112-
114-116-119.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Friday for KYZ087-113-115-117-120.

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Friday for KYZ088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC