450
FXUS63 KJKL 281345
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
945 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well-above-normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend.
  These temperatures may reach within a few degrees of daily
  record highs for today and Saturday.

- Multiple rounds of showers, and perhaps thunderstorms, are
  expected over the next several days. The greatest coverage for
  the area as a whole is forecast from Sunday night into Monday
  morning.

- There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms late Sunday into
  early Monday. Parts of eastern Kentucky may see another round of
  strong to severe storms Wednesday and/or Wednesday night.

- After a brief cool-down Monday night into Tuesday, temperatures
  are forecast to return to above normal levels.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025

Mesonet data shows breezy winds just west of the area. Increased
wind and wind gust grids after observing current conditions and
factoring in recent model trends. Refreshed temperatures and RH as
well.


UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025

Added sprinkles and modified PoPs somewhat based on current radar
trends showing isolated showers and sprinkles moving east across
eastern Kentucky. Other changes were fairly minimal and
insignificant.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 528 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025

Upper disturbance is still on track to pass across the region later
this morning after pushing a warm front across the area during the
early morning hours. Moisture and instability is forecast to
increase from the west near or shortly after dawn as a westerly low-
level jet streak impinges across the area. This will provide better
instability for isolated to scattered showers, especially across
the northern and northeastern counties this morning into the
afternoon. An isolated shower or storm cannot be completely ruled
out to the south though.

The big story today, however, will be the warm conditions. The NBM
probabilistic envelope continues to trend upwards toward the mid-
80s, nearing daily record highs, though the NBM Deterministic
forecast is on the far low end of this guidance suggesting highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Have thus blended the forecast highs for
today between the NBM50thPct and the Deterministic NBM, but this
could be too conservative. The SPC HREF Cloud cover product suggests
several hours of sunny to mostly sunny skies for most of the area
this afternoon within a strong warm advection regime with southwest
wind gusts as high as 20 to 25 mph, before mid- and high-level
clouds increase again toward evening.

Low temperatures for tonight have also trended upwards with
increased cloud cover. However, if the clouds hold off, then
sheltered valleys may be able to fall several degrees quickly before
leveling off as surface winds decouple. Will generally carry mid-50s
to lower-60s under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.

For Saturday, a disturbance over TX and LA region will be lifted
north-northeast toward eastern Kentucky through the day, likely not
reaching the area until late Saturday afternoon or Saturday
evening/overnight. This disturbance will precede a stronger system
approaching from the west for Sunday/Sunday night. Warm advection
will continue to be strong, with southwest wind gusts Saturday
into the 25 to 30 mph range. The NBM Deterministic value is again
on the low end of the probabilistic envelope which mostly resides
in the lower to mid-80s, so blended the deterministic value with
the 50th percentile much like Friday, which results in forecasts
in the upper-70s to lower-80s. Again, however, depending on cloud
cover and arrival of rain showers, this may be again too
conservative. Current daily record highs for both days are in the
lower to mid-80s, so the warmth today and tomorrow will be
impressive for late March.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 528 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025

An active weather pattern is in store for much of the long term
forecast period, with multiple rounds of showers and storms expected
over the next seven days. The first round of activity is likely to
spread across the area on Saturday evening as an upper level
shortwave disturbance lifts northeast into the Ohio River Valley. A
strengthening, southwesterly nocturnal low-level jet will advect
plenty of moisture into the region, but Saturday night`s activity is
likely to coincide with the diurnal instability minima. The related
increase in cloud cover will keep overnight lows mild (near 60
degrees), but this first round of activity should fall in the form
of scattered, moderate-intensity rain showers.

The evolution of this activity into Sunday morning will play a
significant role in the well-advertised strong thunderstorm
potential later that day. Mesoscale trends related to cloud cover,
instability recovery, and downsloping surface winds will need to be
closely monitored as higher-resolution forecast guidance begins to
resolve Sunday`s weather, but the synoptic features at play present
a strong signal for a second round of more organized thunderstorm
activity by Sunday evening. The presently-available pieces of
forecast guidance continue to highlight a potent shortwave trough
lifting northeast out of the Plains and into the Upper Midwest in
this time frame. At the surface, this translates to a deepening
surface low ejecting into the Great Lakes. It will drag a cold front
through the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys behind it, and this
front will likely serve as the focal point for the severe weather
risk. Immediately ahead of this boundary, deep south-southwesterly
flow will advect a tongue of warm, moist air into the forecast area.
Before it arrives and in the wake of the AM activity, the intrusion
of some mid-level dry air could create some capping. This will
likely lead to a lull in warm-sector activity on Sunday afternoon in
Eastern Kentucky. However, if significant breaks in the clouds
emerge, isolated discrete convection cannot be entirely ruled out.
Confidence is much higher in convective initiation further to the
west in Kentucky on Sunday evening. There, frontal forcing is likely
to overlap with a corridor of MUCAPE and shear parameters that favor
the eventual development a linear storm complex. As the parent
system propagates eastward overnight, this QLCS feature is expected
to approach our forecast area with a risk for damaging straight line
wind gusts. Questions linger regarding the ability of these storms
to remain surface-based as they push further and further into
Eastern Kentucky on Monday morning, but the overarching synoptic
environment demands that we watch this system closely. The Storm
Prediction Center has outlined most of our forecast area in a Slight
(Level 2/5) Severe Weather Outlook through 8AM on Monday, with an
Enhanced (3/5) bordering our western counties and a Marginal (Level
1/5) in the far east. SPC maintains the slight risk across eastern
portions of the forecast area on Monday morning. These outlooks
gives credence to the idea that confidence in severe weather is
highest in western/central Kentucky on Sunday night and that storms
may gradually weaken as they push east on Monday morning. With
regard to the system`s heavy rainfall threat, any flooding that
stems from this system is likely to be isolated in nature. A
Marginal Risk of flash and urban stream flooding exists, but
widespread/significant river rises are not currently forecast on
Sunday/Monday. Confidence is growing that the greatest threat will
fall overnight with this system, so we encourage readers to
review their severe weather safety plans ahead of time. Be sure to
have multiple ways to receive warnings that can wake you up, as
nocturnal severe weather threats are known to increase
vulnerability to impacts.

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will taper off from NW to SE on
Monday as the system`s cold front sweeps across the region. The
timing of this frontal passage is likely to interrupt the
traditional diurnal temperature curve, and some locations are likely
to see their daily MaxTs before noon as a result. Temperatures will
steadily drop from the 60s into the 50s as winds shift towards the
west during the day and then towards the NW overnight. The resultant
cold air advection will dip overnight lows into the 30s, and a frost
is possible in the Bluegrass region as skies clear out behind the
front. Tuesday is poised to be the driest and coolest day in the
forecast period, with partly cloudy skies and highs near 60. During
the overnight hours, however, surface winds will steadily veer all
the way back around to the south. In this same time frame, flow
aloft returns to a more southwesterly orientation. Together, this
pattern switch leads to warm air advection and moisture return,
setting the stage for the potential third and fourth rounds of
shower and thunderstorm activity late next week.

Model spread notably increases for sensible weather variables such
as temperatures and winds beginning on Wednesday, but the synoptics
point towards a return to the warm sector as another vigorous
springtime trough digs into Great Plains. Significant timing
differences amongst the guidance suite preclude the mention of
specific forecast details, but machine learning and historical
analog guidance point towards active weather late next week. After
Sunday`s system clears the area, this is where we will focus our
attention. SPC has highlighted portions of the area in a broad Day 6
Severe Weather Outlook, and the people of Eastern Kentucky are
accordingly encouraged to remain weather aware for the next week or
so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025

VFR conditions should generally prevail through the period with
primarily mid- and high-level clouds. A few showers are possible,
mainly through this morning in locations to the northeast of the
Cumberland drainage basin.

Winds will increase to 7 to 15 kts from the southwest at most
places this morning into the afternoon, with gusts up to around
20 kts in the afternoon. Low level wind shear may also be a
concern for a time early this morning, and then again briefly
late tonight ahead of another system approaching.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC