766
FXUS63 KJKL 250534
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1234 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region
  between tonight and Wednesday morning, leading to widespread
  shower chances late tonight into Tuesday night.

- Isolated strong storms are possible on Tuesday afternoon/
  evening for areas along and south of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY-80
  corridor.

- A colder and drier airmass will settle into the region for
  Thanksgiving and Black Friday, but there is a lot of uncertainty
  in the forecast for Saturday and beyond.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

Radar returns have been moving across portions of the area this
evening, but based on gauges, little or nothing has been making it
to the ground as mid level dry air and downslope flow eats into
the precip. As more precip develops and moves in from the
southwest, there will be a better chance of measuring, especially
in far norther and western portions of the area where downsloping
will not have much effect.

UPDATE Issued at 942 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025

Light rain has made it to the western edge of the forecast area,
but is struggling to overcome mid level dry air. It will prime the
way for the next wave to move in overnight and likely bring rain
to our northwestern counties, while it may take longer to make it
to our southeast counties. Temps have cooled a bit faster than was
forecast in eastern valleys, and the mins have been revised
downward slightly, but readings are still expected to bottom out
part way through the night and then climb as clouds thicken and
low level flow picks up.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered in the
vicinity of Cuba and extended across the FL peninsula to the
Appalachians to Great Lakes. Further west, an upper low was
centered in KS with an upper trough south into the Southern
Plains. There were weaker shortwaves/impulses in the southwest
flow between the ridging and this trough with these moving from
the Southern Plains across the Arklatex region toward the TN and
OH Valleys. Further upstream, a shortwave trough was moving
across Alberta into MT/Norther sections of the Rockies as it
working around upper level ridging that extended from the eastern
Pacific north west of the West Coast of the U.S. and BC. At the
surface, a ridge of high pressure was centered over the mid
Atlantic vicinity while sfc low pressure was centered in OK, with
a warm front extending to the northern Gulf and a cold front
trailing into TX. Further north a frontal zone extended into the
upper MS Valley and northern Plains to a sfc low in MT and then
eventually to CA. High and mid level moisture has already begun
to increase across the Commonwealth ahead of the approaching
system with clouds at these levels having spread into eastern KY
from midday through the afternoon. Following the dense fog this
morning, temperatures have recovered to above normal levels, into
the upper 50s to mid 60s range.

The upper low currently in KS is expected to weaken to an open
wave tonight with the resulting shortwave expected to extend from
near or just west of Lake MI to the Lower OH Valley and TN Valley
to Gulf states near dawn on Tuesday. Weaker lead disturbances in
southwest flow should also track across the Commonwealth tonight.
Meanwhile, the upstream shortwave currently extending into MT and
sections of the Rockies should trek to the Dakotas/northern to
central Plains area. The occluded sfc low preceding the initial
weakening shortwave should move into the Lower OH Valley/western
KY later tonight with the triple point low reaching sections of
the TN Valley/Memphis vicinity. At the same time, the warm front
associated with this system will lift north and northeast and
into sections of the TN to southeast states. On Wednesday, the
initial shortwave trough should track across the central to
eastern Great Lakes and the OH Valley. The occluded sfc low and
the triple point should track north and northwest of eastern KY
with the warm front lifting north and east of the area by evening
while the trailing cold front arrives during the evening.

Behind that shortwave southwest flow aloft will remain from the
MS Valley to the eastern Conus in advance of the next shortwave
trough that is expected to close off to an upper level low as it
moves across SD to the MN/IA border vicinity and the associated
500 mb trough axis extends south across the central Conus. A
preceding shortwave trough is progged to move across the Lower OH
Valley on Tuesday night with the upper low expected to reach WI
and the associated trough axis the mid to Lower MS Valley to end
the short term period. The initial cold front will cross eastern
KY Tuesday evening into Tuesday night while the sfc low ahead of
the upper low and 500 mb trough reaches the western Great Lakes
while the trailing secondary front nears eastern KY late.

Moisture will continue to increase on southwest flow this evening
and tonight and PW is progged to reach the 0.85 to 1.20 inch range
by dawn on Tuesday or the 90th to 95th percentile per 12Z HREF.
Forcing from the approaching low pressure system and passing mid
level waves results in high confidence for showers tonight to
produce measurable rain for most locations. Moisture remains near
these levels ahead of the shortwave into the afternoon, before a
bit of a decrease for late in the afternoon and night. However,
the continued approach of the low pressure system as well as
another shortwave and the trough axis as well as the first cold
front and the secondary one for Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night will result in continued high chance to categorical chances
for showers. SBCAPE should be minimal, no more than 200 J/KG on
Tuesday evening per HREF mean while MUCAPE late Tuesday afternoon
to early evening per the RAP peaks in the 150 to 450 J/kG range.
Shear will be fairly ample across souther locations, but with
minimal SBCAPE only a strong storm or two appears possible at
this range especially when coupled with recent CAMS. In the HWO
and key messages above, the mention of possible strong storms
south of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/ KY 80 corridor was maintained.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 447 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

The beginning of the long term forecast period is marked by the
passage of a well-defined cold front. On Wednesday morning, a
vertically stacked and likely occluded low pressure system will be
spinning over the Northern Great Lakes, with its trailing cold front
sweeping through the Greater Ohio River Valley. Dry air is forecast
to wrap around the southwest side of that low, leaving Wednesday`s
boundary with much less precipitable water to work with than on the
day prior. A few pre-frontal rain showers remain possible on
Wednesday morning, but gusty post-frontal winds out of the west will
quickly advect a much cooler and drier continental airmass into the
region. This will likely limit the amount of diurnal warming
realized on Wednesday afternoon, and many locations will actually
see temperatures steadily decrease throughout the day. MaxTs will
likely struggle to warm above 55 degrees, and the LREF Grand Ensemble
data depicts only a 40% chance of highs warmer than this threshold.
Once the sun goes down, temperatures will plummet into the 30s, with
widespread overnight MinTs below freezing.

Wednesday`s frontal passage sets the stage for a rather chilly
Thanksgiving Day. A surface high pressure system will build into the
region behind the front while broad troughing sets up aloft over
much of the Eastern CONUS. Some high-/mid-level clouds might linger
into Thursday morning, but the continued advection of cold and dry
air into the column favors a mostly sunny sensible weather forecast
with highs in the upper 30s north of the Mountain Parkway and in the
lower 40s further to the south. Models collectively resolve less
cloud cover and colder 850mb temperatures on Thursday night, which
could turn out to be one of the coldest nights of the season thus
far. Efficient radiational cooling should allow sheltered and shaded
valleys to dip into the teens overnight, but even the relatively
warmer ridgetops will cool into the lower half of the 20s. Expect
similar, if not slightly cooler, conditions to continue on Black
Friday before the pattern shifts next weekend.

The broad midlevel troughing associated with Thursday and Friday`s
colder weather looks to lift northeast overnight into Saturday. This
will set up a regime of quasi-zonal flow aloft, and midlevel
geopotential height rises indicate a general warming trend. The
exact arrival time and magnitude of that warmer airmass remains
somewhat ambiguous though. Some guidance keeps cold air around just
long enough to interact with a shortwave disturbance and yield some
mixed snow/rain in the Bluegrass region on Saturday. Others show the
better precipitation chances arriving on Sunday after another day`s
worth of WAA. The compounding differences result in significant
model spread and reduced forecast confidence for Saturday and
beyond, but the synoptic features at play point towards primarily
liquid precipitation and seasonably mild temperatures for the end of
November and the start of December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

VFR conditions still prevailed at the start of the period. Rain
has struggled to reach the ground due to downslope flow and dry
air aloft. Enough moistening should eventually occur for light
rain to arrive in some locations overnight (especially far western
and northern portions of the forecast area), but it will probably
take longer for significant deterioration in conditions. Low
level flow will also pick up overnight, especially just off the
surface, and low level wind shear will be a concern overnight into
Tuesday morning over the western portion of the area. During the
day Tuesday showers will become more numerous area wide, with a
deterioration to mostly MVFR conditions expected during the
course of the day.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL