245
FXUS63 KJKL 270025 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
825 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather is expected through Saturday.

- There is an increasing threat for excessive rainfall from
  multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through
  Tuesday, which may lead to the potential for flooding concerns.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows the main front south of Kentucky though a
lingering stray shower is found on our side of the border with
Tennessee. This will fade out over the next hour or so with very
low PoPs for the rest of the night. Under partly cloudy skies
temperatures are dropping back into the mid and upper 70s most
places. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints vary
from the comfortable upper 50s and lower 60s north to the low 70s
in the south along the border with Tennessee. Have updated the
forecast to drop the PoPs through the rest of the night per radar
and CAMs trends. Did also add in the latest obs and tendencies for
the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and
SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024

An upper level trough axis will dive south-southeast across the
Upper Ohio River Valley the remainder of this afternoon and
evening, clearing eastern Kentucky late tonight. A highly
amplified yet narrow upper ridge builds rapidly across the area
Saturday morning, with the ridge axis aloft moving to over the US
Highway 23 corridor late Saturday night. Meanwhile, an upper
trough lifting northeast across the Lower Missouri and Mid-
Mississippi Valleys pushes a warm front slowly northeast across
the Lower and Mid-Ohio River Valleys Saturday night.

Cold front across TN will serve as the focal point for shower and
thunderstorm activity the remainder of this afternoon into early
this evening. The proximity to the front and lingering 70-plus
degree dew points over the far southwestern counties will help fire
off a few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
near the TN border, mainly to the south and southwest of
Somerset. Otherwise, a very dry mid-level air mass will move over
the vast majority of the remainder of the forecast area, bringing
clearing skies outside of the typical nighttime fog in the deeper
river valleys.

Saturday will bring a near-repeat of shower and thunderstorm
chances from today as a stationary front will be close enough to
warrant slight chance PoPs across the far southwestern part of the
forecast area. However, the vast majority of locations will
experience sunny conditions with low humidity, with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

The aforementioned stationary front begins to move slowly northeast
across our southwestern counties Saturday evening into Sunday
morning, bringing a notable increase in cloud cover and humidity.
This will result in a greater than usual temperature spread across
the forecast area, with southwestern areas mainly along and west of
Interstate 75 likely to see lows in the mid to upper 60s yet central
and northeastern sheltered valleys may see temperatures fall as low
as the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024

The large scale flow pattern aloft to begin the extended will
feature troughing entering the Pacific Northwest and moving across
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Another trough is forecast to move
very slowly up the east coast and into New England by the middle
of the week. The central part of the CONUS, including our forecast
area, will be plagued by repeated rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, as a series of short waves aloft move through the
region. There might also be a weak/diffuse warm frontal boundary
in place at the surface near or over our area. These two features,
combined with a steady influx of Gulf of Mexico moisture from the
south, will set the stage for multiple rounds of rain for eastern
Kentucky. The air mass that will be in place will be very warm and
muggy and will also lead to very light winds.

The persistent moisture, weak steering currents, and multiple
rounds of showers and storms could lead to locally heavy rainfall
and perhaps even some flooding around the area. In fact, the
Weather Prediction Center now has eastern Kentucky in a slight
risk for excessive rainfall Monday through Tuesday of the upcoming
work week. Based on the latest model data, all of which is
suggesting increasingly favorable conditions for heavy rain, we
will be closely monitoring the situation for further evidence of
heavy rain and flooding. As of now, it appears the first round of
heavy rain will begin on Sunday, with Monday and Tuesday looking
most favorable. Daily temperatures will max out in the 80s Sunday
through Tuesday, but should be able to achieve higher values in
the upper 80s and lower 90s Wednesday through Friday, as the
muggier air mass settles over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024

VFR conditions are in place for the TAF sites this evening and
are expected to prevail through the period. Late tonight, valley
fog, with localized IFR or worse conditions, is expected again -
probably not impacting TAF sites. Note that skies will continue
to exhibit some haziness due to distant wildfire smoke moving into
the area from the north and northwest, but this activity is not
expected to result in sub-VFR conditions at any time. Winds will
remain light and variable through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF