066
FXUS63 KJKL 200517
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
117 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower/storm chances return at times tonight and linger through
  the middle of the week, mainly during the afternoon and evening
  hours.

- There is a chance of strong to severe storms late tonight, and
  especially Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. There is also
  the chance for excessive rainfall late tonight through Tuesday
  night.

- Highs will be near normal again on Tuesday, then are forecast
  to be below normal for Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2025

With current forecast QPF exceeding 1 inch for most of the
counties bordering TN and VA that were not in the initial flood
watch issuance and to better correlate with the areal extent of
the watch with surrounding offices and WPC Slight Risk ERO, opted
to add those counties in to the watch and continue to leave
Fleming County out at this time.

Other than that only some minor adjustments were made to hourly
grids based on observation trends.

UPDATE Issued at 855 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2025

Minor adjustments were made to hourly temperatures based on recent
observations trends. Overnight lows still are on track. Model runs
will continue to be evaluated about the potential for Tuesday afternoon
to early Tuesday evening storms to be equally as strong if not
more so than anticipated later evening to early overnight round of
storms closer to the cold front. The afternoon to early evening
potential is contingent on heating following activity late tonight
into the morning as the warm front lifts north. Areas near and
west of I-75

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 513 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2025

Late today, a closed upper low was over the northern plains, with
a trough extending south. To the east of this, an upper ridge was
situated a little east of the Mississippi River. Meanwhile, at the
surface a warm front was over TN and extended to a low over the
plains.

The upper ridge will shift east over us tonight and the trough
will begin to pivot around the upper low. This will support the
surface low to track to the vicinity of IA by Tuesday, and to the
Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. This will pull the warm front
north through KY on Tuesday and Tuesday evening, with the system`s
cold front then approaching from the west by dawn on Wednesday.
The warm air advection regime is expected to bring at least
scattered showers/thunderstorms to the area by dawn and into the
day Tuesday. As the negatively tilted upper trough pivots toward
us and over the area late Tuesday and Tuesday night, additional
shower/thunderstorms will occur. There have been some indications
in today`s model runs that the shear/instability combo could
become more favorable for severe wx. The SPC has increased the
day 2 (Tuesday/Tuesday night) risk level for the JKL area,
particularly for wind and tornadoes, with an enhanced risk now
extending well northeastward to near KJKL. Activity should be on
the decline overnight Tuesday night, but precip could linger past
dawn.

Lastly, repeated rounds of thunderstorms may bring localized
excessive rainfall. With much of the area still wet from the last
round of severe wx and flooding, problems could arise, and a
Flood Watch was issued for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night
for most of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2025

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in broad
agreement aloft into the upcoming weekend before some
discrepancies start to magnify into the start of the next week.
They all depict a sharp, quick hitting trough working through the
lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday with some slight 5h height falls
for Kentucky as it passes along with a stream of mid-level energy
skirting the northern part of the state. A secondary push of
energy arrives that night extending the troughing down into
Kentucky as the parent 5h low holds forth over the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. Troughing then remains in place for this part of
the country to start the weekend with northwest mid-level flow
carrying a series of impulses through the area. The operational
GFS is a bit stronger and further south with the core of this
trough than the ECMWF. Ridging will then follow briefly for
Sunday, as it builds in from the Southern Plains, but quickly
another northern stream trough works this way from the Upper
Midwest to start the new work week. The small model spread
through Friday night supported using the NBM as the starting point
with minimal adjustments needed - mainly to factor in some
radiational cooling based terrain distinction in temperatures at
night during the weekend.

Sensible weather features some similarities to the pattern of last
week. We will start out in the wake of storms passing through the
area likely before dawn Wednesday with additional showers possible
as a cold front moves through. Any drying in the wake of this will
be short-lived, though, as the next wave works in with additional
shower chances for Thursday. In fact, this potential also leads to
a larger than normal spread amongst the models for Thursday`s
highs. Quieter weather follows for the weekend thanks to high
pressure but conditions will not be completely convection free or
clear as the earlier boundary will start to work back northeast
toward the area for the latter part of the weekend and, in
particular, on Monday. This means a renewed chance of showers and
storms for the area to start the new work week. Temperatures will
be cooler than normal into the weekend with warmer and more normal
readings to close out the period.

The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adding enhanced terrain distinction to the temperatures for Friday
and Saturday nights. As for PoPs - did not deviate from the NBM
solution given the similar model solutions despite some of the
upper level differences showing up in the latter part of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2025

VFR conditions were reported at issuance time with some
virga or light showers in parts of south central KY to middle TN
to TN Cumberland Plateau upstream of KSME and KLOZ. A few storms
were well west and southwest from IL into MO and AR. VFR is
expected through the first 6 hours of the period, though during
this time, isolated to scattered convection with the potential
for brief MVFR reductions is possible generally from KLOZ and KSME
south, with isolated to scattered convection spreading east and
northeast to the remaining TAF sites through 13Z and then
continuing north and northeast as a warm front nears eastern KY.
The warm front lifts north across eastern KY during the 12Z to 00Z
timeframe, the associated surface low enters the OH Valley toward
00Z and the trailing cold front approaches east KY at that point.
A possible lull following morning to midday convection may occur
with renewed and stronger activity after 16Z or 17Z possibly
linear in nature with mainly a strong to damaging wind threat
spreading across the area through about 23Z or 00Z. Additional
activity should arrive from the west behind that second round.
The strongest activity is more probable from KSME to KLOZ to KJKL
and KSJS and points south where instability should be greatest.
Some PROB30 groups were used to cover either potential for sub-VFR
reductions in the showers/isolated storms in the first round
between about 08Z to 16Z with additional PROB30 groups for the
stronger storms in round two during he 18Z to 00Z timeframe. Also
within those PROB 30 groups for KSME, KLOZ, KJKL, and KSJS, in
addition to the potential for sub-VFR conditions also included
wind gusts to 30 to 35KT, though some severe level winds gusts are
not out of the question along with hail. Additional PROB30 groups
were used to cover the last round of possible storms during the
last 6 hours of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late tonight for
KYZ050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP