658
FXUS63 KLMK 150713
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
313 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Above normal temperatures expected Sunday into next week. Spotty
    showers and storms possible next week as well, particularly on
    Monday, though confidence in their development remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Diffuse and slow-moving cold front is draped somewhere near the
Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways, with dewpoints dropping
fairly nicely behind it while moisture pools just ahead of the
boundary.

With the continued southward progress of the front and easterly flow
around sfc high pressure over Lake Huron, we can expect slightly
cooler and markedly less humid conditions compared to Friday.
Shortwave ridging aloft and plentiful sunshine will limit the
cooldown, with max temps this afternoon actually just on the high
side of climo, even touching 90 around Bowling Green. The more
noticeable chance will be dewpoints in the lower-mid 50s from
Louisville into the Bluegrass region, and even most of south-central
KY should see dewpoints in the lower 60s. The low dewpoints will
allow temps tonight to drop a few degrees below normal for mid-June.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

On Sunday, warm air advection will return to the Lower Ohio
Valley. An upper ridge over the eastern United States and a surface
low over the Ohio Valley will keep skies over the CWA clear. Given
the conditions, high temperatures will reach into the mid to upper
90s across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. A few in the east,
the Lake Cumberland and Bluegrass regions, may only see the low 90s.

The surface low, centered in the Northern Atlantic, will keep low
level flow funneling Gulf of Mexico moisture northward towards the
CWA, and by Sunday evening, precipitable water values in south
central Kentucky will begin increasing to over 1.5". This trend will
continue as PWATs reach to near and over 2" by Monday evening. The
highest values will flow the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
This increase in moisture will increase precipitation chances Sunday
through Tuesday with the highest chances on Monday. All the warm air
will increase instability in the weakly sheared environment. Some
model guidance is showing multiple shortwaves riding northward on
the anticyclonic flow. This could trigger some convective activity,
but feel the NBM`s coverage of precipitation is likely overdone.

As high pressure remains over the Southeast, the story this week
will remain the warm weather. Highs in the 90s remain into next
weekend. Low temperatures on most nights will only drop into the 70s
for most. The lucky could see the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Diffuse cold front is draped just south of the Ohio River, with
lower dewpoints filtering into SDF but moisture pooling still noted
at LEX and BWG. Expect the front to drop just far enough south to
return LEX to VFR by 08Z, with lower confidence at BWG. Light
N-NE winds behind the front will veer to ENE and increase to
just shy of 10 kt shortly after daybreak as high pressure over
the Great Lakes asserts its influence.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS