431
FXUS63 KLMK 032051
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
351 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Majority of the upcoming week will feature dry and mild weather.
   Next rain chances come Friday and possibly into next weekend.

*  Gusty showers and a few strong thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
   with the Friday system.

*  Cooler and showery weather is likely late next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Sunny skies have returned to the region for the first time in
several days as temperatures have warmed into the 50s and low 60s
this afternoon. The low pressure system which lingered overhead for
much of the weekend has been kicked off to the east by an upper
trough and associated front which mainly passed to the north of the
region this morning. Behind the front, breezy southwest winds of 10
to 15 mph are observed; however, these should steadily weaken this
evening as high pressure descends from the central Plains and merges
with high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. Highs should
reach the upper 50s and low 60s this afternoon before cooling
quickly after sunset.

Tonight, light winds and mostly clear skies are expected, with
scattered high clouds expected to move through the region after
midnight. This should not stop temperatures from cooling into the
30s by sunrise Tuesday, with some low 30s likely in the cooler
spots. Given that dew point temperatures are generally in the upper
30s and low 40s this afternoon, it is likely that many areas will
fall below the crossover temperature tonight, and at least patchy
fog would be expected across much of the area after midnight
tonight, continuing through mid-morning Tuesday.

Once the fog dissipates tomorrow morning, another dry and pleasant
day is expected across the area. Filtered sunshine is expected in
the morning with high clouds passing overhead, though these high
clouds should thin from west to east later in the day. Increasing
H85 temps should translate down to the surface, with highs likely
reaching the 60s across the area tomorrow afternoon. With sfc high
pressure centered over the southern Appalachians tomorrow,
anticyclonic flow should bring southerly winds of 5-10 mph during
the late morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 350 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Tuesday Night - Thursday Night...

For much of the mid-week time period, mild and dry conditions are
expected across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Zonal flow in the
mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere will keep most of the
impacts from transient systems to the north of the region, with
changes in wind speeds and direction being the main impact until
Friday.

On Wednesday, an upper shortwave and associated sfc low will slide
across the upper Great Lakes, with a front extending to the south
into the Ohio Valley. Moisture is expected to be fairly sparse with
this system, so little more than a few extra clouds are expected as
the system passes. A stronger pressure gradient will bring gusty SW
winds during the day on Wednesday, with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph
expected. As the front crosses the region, warm advection should
help temperatures warm into the upper 60s and low 70s Wednesday
afternoon, and Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the
upcoming week.

Sfc high pressure will quickly pass across the region Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, with dry and mild weather continuing
through the day on Thursday, though temperatures should be cooler
than on Wednesday. A more amplified upper shortwave will begin to
descend from the northern Plains Thursday night, with moisture
return and warm advection increasing within deep SW flow, setting
the stage for rain chances returning on Friday.

Friday - Sunday Night...

A cold front is expected to cross the region Friday into Friday
night, with this system expected to bring the next chance of
widespread rain to the area. A 45 kt LLJ will increase PW values to
around or just over 1" ahead of the cold front, and steepening lapse
rates during the day on Friday should help transfer gusty winds down
to the surface. Along and just ahead of the front, scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms should develop, although instability
continues to look meager with most CAPE progs showing less than 500
J/kg. However, seasonably strong flow aloft will provide sufficient
shear to keep any stronger storms organized, and a high-shear, low-
CAPE event remains a low, but non-zero possibility Friday afternoon
and evening. Machine learning guidance does show a modest signal for
severe convection from the Gulf states into the Ohio Valley, but
this is likely driven by strong shear and non-zero CAPE. A more
likely outcome would be gusty rain showers and a rumble of thunder
or two, with the overall severe potential being fairly low.

Showers and storms should clear to the east by late Friday night,
with cooler and drier weather expected on Saturday. The upper level
pattern will remain active through next weekend as additional
shortwaves swing through the Ohio Valley and Midwest. The larger
Rossby wave pattern will amplify, leading to height falls and
steadily cooling temperatures through the weekend. Confidence in
these subsequent shortwaves is fairly low, but additional chances
for showery weather will return Sunday into next Monday.
Temperatures may be cool enough by next Sunday night for rain
showers to mix with snow, though confidence in this is very low at
this time. There is much higher confidence in cooler temperatures
and showery weather for late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

For the remainder of the afternoon through this evening, VFR
conditions are expected. A front that passed to the northeast of the
region this morning has led to stronger SW winds, which should
remain around 10-15 kt through the rest of the afternoon before
subsiding this evening. Tonight, light and variable winds are
expected as sfc high pressure will remain in control. Fog is likely
again Tuesday morning, but it should be more patchy. The best signal
for fog looks to be at HNB and BWG, but all sites stand a chance at
fog between 07-15Z Tuesday. VFR conditions should return by the end
of the current TAF period late Tuesday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG