711
FXUS64 KOUN 040721 AAC
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
121 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Rain is likely over northwest and north-central Oklahoma on
  Thursday.

- Above-average temperatures return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 120 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Overall, a pleasant weather day is in store for us today, despite
the chilly temperatures this morning.

The subtropical jet currently passing along an approaching low-
amplitude ridge will transport scattered high clouds to western
north Texas and southern Oklahoma with abundant sunshine expected.
As the associated surface high tracks across Texas, expect light
NW/W winds will back to the south by this afternoon and into the
evening. The combination of diabatic heating, weak downslope flow
(H850), and mid-level height rises will make way for slightly
warmer temperatures today for most areas.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 120 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Mid-level height falls ahead of an approaching trough will result
in the formation of a surface cyclone over the Texas panhandle on
Wednesday night. With enhanced low-level WAA ahead of the system,
expect rain, mainly light, to develop over northwest Oklahoma after
sunrise Thursday. Meanwhile, light southerly winds over far northern
Oklahoma shift to the northeast.The surface low moves southeastward
from the TX panhandle to southwest Oklahoma or western north Texas
by mid-to late-morning. Rain is likely over the northern half of Oklahoma
by early afternoon and very low instability should keep lightning
activity to a minimum. The rain- cooled air (northern OK) contrasting
with mostly sunny skies (southern OK) will encourage the development
of a frontal boundary that pushes south of the OKC metro by mid-
afternoon as the surface low reaches the Red River.

As the pressure gradient tightens, especially over the north and west
sides of the low, windy conditions develop over western Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Cities such as Elk City, Altus, Hobart, and Vernon
will see sustained N/NW winds increase to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph
by mid-day or early afternoon. Scattered rain showers are likely tomove
into central and possibly southwest Oklahoma by mid-afternoon with
rain exiting by late Thursday evening. High temperatures are forecast
to rise only into the mid-50`s (northwest OK) to low-60`s (central)
and mid-70`s (south). With clearing skies, temperatures drop into the
upper 30`s over northwest Oklahoma (40`s elsewhere) by Friday morning.

Another pleasant weather day is expected on Friday with mostly sunny
skies, light north winds, and highs in the upper-50`s to
upper-60`s.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 120 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Another trough is prog`d to move reach the Pacific Northwest on
Thursday, which will lead to a questionable upper-level pattern
this weekend with guidance showing varying solutions of evolution
and placement. Slight chance of rain returns to southern and
southeastern Oklahoma on Saturday night, but rain appears more
likely over Texas. Then, a warming trend appears likely by Monday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Winds have become light across the area. The MVFR ceilings at KPNC
are moving out and clearing skies should be there within the hour.
There is not a strong model signal for fog tonight, but would not
be surprised to see some isolated patches of fog with the light
winds and clear skies, although drier air moving into the area
should keep the potential relatively low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  49  62  43 /   0   0  50  20
Hobart OK         68  50  64  42 /   0   0  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  70  50  72  45 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           67  46  54  37 /   0  30  80   0
Ponca City OK     63  46  59  40 /   0   0  60  10
Durant OK         72  48  75  50 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...26