689
FXUS64 KOUN 121015
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
515 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 507 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
  evening, especially across northern Oklahoma.

- Hot and humid conditions through at least midweek next week.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible
  Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday night)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A line of thunderstorms is developing along a cold front across
Nebraska early this morning. As this line of thunderstorms
continues to move the southeast, the remnants may impact north
central Oklahoma later this morning (after sunrise). There is an
~30 to 40% chance of storms across north central Oklahoma this
morning. If the thunderstorms survive, the risk for severe weather
is low as the activity should generally be weakening with
southeast extent as the low-level jet will be subsiding after 12Z.

Another hot and humid afternoon is expected with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to mid 100s deg F. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for this afternoon for locations along and
south of I-40. For locations north of I-40, uncertainty is a bit
higher as temperatures will be highly dependent on the evolution
of any morning thunderstorms and associated cloud debris/
convective outflow.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
late this afternoon into the evening with two potential areas for
development. The first zone is ahead of a cold front in northern
Oklahoma. The second zone is the location of any remnant outflow
boundary from the morning convection. There is greater confidence
for development in the first zone given there is uncertainty on
the evolution of the morning storms and location of any outflow
boundary. If the remnants of the storms make it into north central
Oklahoma this morning, the outflow boundary could be located
somewhere across central/east central Oklahoma.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with a threat for
both damaging wind gusts and large hail given MLCAPE ~3000 to 4000
J/kg, effective bulk shear ~30 to 35 knots, and downdraft CAPE
>1000 J/kg. There will also be a threat for heavy rainfall given
the high precipitable water values (>1.5). For example, the HREF
ensemble max indicates the potential for locally heavy rainfall
up to 2 to 3" in northern Oklahoma. Most locations will not
receive that much rainfall, but that gives an idea of a reasonable
maximum amount of rainfall. If these amounts were to occur in an
an area susceptible to flooding (e.g., an urban area), there would
be some flooding risk. Thunderstorms may organize into a cluster
that would move east-southeast across the northern half of
Oklahoma late evening through the overnight.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The ~594 dam subtropical ridge will be centered across the
Southern Plains on Sunday, which significantly decreases the
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Hot and humid conditions are
expected with widespread triple digit heat indices and dry
conditions. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for parts of the
area on Sunday.

The subtropical ridge will begin to move eastward on Monday. Even
so, the heat will continue with a strong low-level thermal ridge
across the western/northwestern side of the ridge. Lee
cyclogenesis east of the Rocky Mountains will cause a deepening
surface low and attendant trough across the Central Plains.
Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are possible
across the west on Monday afternoon with a strengthening surface
pressure gradient resulting in breezy southerly winds.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The subtropical ridge will remain centered across the southeast
United States through at least the middle part of next week.
Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the western periphery of the
ridge with a strong low-level thermal ridge. Above-normal
temperatures are likely to continue with high temperatures in the
90s to mid 100s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance
indicates little temperature spread through Wednesday (e.g., the
10th percentile is above-normal), which indicates high confidence
of above-normal temperatures.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to stronger
flow aloft (on the periphery of the ridge known as the ring of
fire), where there will be occasional chances of showers and
thunderstorms from remnant convection or nearby fronts.

Ensemble spread does increase by late next week into the
following weekend (September 18-20), which indicates the potential
for a pattern change with the subtropical ridge breaking down and
a stronger cold front advancing southward into the area. It`s not
a guarantee, but there is a 40 to 70% chance of high temperatures
below 90 deg F on Sunday, September 20 (40% south; 70% north).
The coldest end of guidance even indicates a low to medium chance
(10 to 40%) of high temperatures below 80 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Morning showers and thunderstorms are possible near KPNC and KSWO.
However, given the trajectory of the storm complex currently
tracking southeastwards across eastern Kansas chances appear to
be diminishing for this round of precipitation.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible by late
afternoon and into the evening hours across northern, central and
into southern Oklahoma. Given the varied modeled output for this
round, probabilities are on the low-side with PROB30`s for many
terminals. Severe storms will have the potential to yield large
hail up to the size of golf-balls and wind gusts to 70 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  99  75  99  76 /  20  20   0   0
Hobart OK        104  76 102  77 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 105  76 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          101  71 101  75 /  30  30  10   0
Ponca City OK     94  70  97  73 /  40  30  10   0
Durant OK        102  76 101  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ021>025-027>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01