993
FXUS64 KOUN 261849
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
149 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 146 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Additional strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and
  evening across the western third of the area.

- Widespread beneficial rainfall expected beginning Tuesday
  through the end of next week.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week,
  before cooling down mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A shortwave trough will continue to move through the southern
Plains today. Daytime heating by the afternoon should give way to
instability values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg at least across the
western half of the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
to redevelop this afternoon across portions of northern, central
and western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Deep-layer shear
will be sufficient to support a few stronger storms capable of
producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Most of the activity
that develops before sunset, should weaken into the night as
daytime heating decreases.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday
morning, most of the activity should shift to the east as the mid-
level trough exits the area. Mid-level heights will increase
Sunday, so afternoon highs will likely be a few degrees warmer
than Saturday`s temperatures. Despite the increasing mid-level
heights, deep-layer moisture and daytime heating will help to
support isolated to scattered thunderstorms across much of the
area Sunday afternoon.

Aforementioned mid-level ridge will keep temperatures similar to
Sunday`s highs, and should keep most of the area dry. There is a
low chance at thunderstorm development across far southeastern
Oklahoma during the afternoon.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Sub-tropical jet coming off the Pacific will bring increasing
amounts of moisture, including the remnants of Hurricane Polo north
and northeast ahead of strengthening western trough. This will allow
precip chances to increase beginning Tuesday.

The 00Z GFS has come in more in line with the Euro in a much slower
eastward progression of the upper low through the southwest into the
southern Plains this week. After the initial increase in precip
chances Tuesday, abundant deep layer moisture and the slow movement
of the upper low will bring an extended chance of rain through the
remainder of the week and perhaps into next weekend. I`m reluctant
to say this, but this would bring in the possibility of an increased
chance of flooding rainfall, believe it or not as we go through the
week, with very little chance of severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions expected this TAF period. Scattered showers/storms
remain possible into Sunday morning. Gusty variable winds could be
possible with some of the storms this afternoon/evening. Locally
heavy rain also possible. Winds will range from the SW to SE this
afternoon becoming generally S to SE this evening although winds
could shift more in some locations due to any outflow
boundary(ies).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  91  70  91 /  40  30  20  10
Hobart OK         69  93  68  92 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  70  98  71  97 /  60  20  10  10
Gage OK           63  88  63  86 /  10   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     65  85  66  84 /  70  10  10  10
Durant OK         70  97  70  95 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25