198
FXUS64 KOUN 240234
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
934 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 933 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Excessive heat continues into early next week.

- Strong to severe storms are possible Monday morning across
  north central Oklahoma and along the I-40 corridor Monday
  afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across southwest
  Oklahoma into western north Texas Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Hot and humid conditions are ongoing across Oklahoma and north
Texas this afternoon with the most dangerous heat across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon.

A few high-based thunderstorms may develop across the Oklahoma
and Texas panhandles this afternoon with a chance that the
remnants of the activity will move into northwest Oklahoma this
evening.

For tonight, increasing isentropic ascent/warm air advection
associated with the low-level jet will result in showers and
thunderstorms developing across Kansas, Missouri, and northeast
Oklahoma after midnight. The I-35 corridor in Oklahoma will on
the southwest/western periphery of the strongest ascent with the
potential for isolated development as far southwest as south
central Oklahoma. Strong to low-end severe thunderstorms are
possible, especially across north central Oklahoma.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A surface low and attendant cold front will advance southeast into
Oklahoma on Monday. The location of the cold front/surface low
could be impacted by the morning showers and thunderstorms and
whether convective outflow, post-frontal clouds, and/or rain
advance the effective cold front farther to the south.

The cold front will likely be very close to the I-40 corridor with
the potential for a sharp north-to-south temperature gradient
somewhere in that zone. For example, the most aggressive model
with the cold front is the 12Z NAM with abundant post-frontal
cloud cover. As a result, it has a high temperature of 96 deg F in
Oklahoma City. In contrast, the National Blend of Models (NBM)
has 108 deg F with Oklahoma City in the pre-frontal torch ahead of
the front. For those who live in north central Oklahoma (i.e.,
near Ponca City), we have high confidence that you will be on the
cooler side of the front. If you live in western north Texas,
(i.e., near Wichita Falls, Seymour, Vernon, Knox City, etc.), we
have high confidence you will be on the hot side of the front. It
is the middle/I-40 corridor where uncertainty is the highest.

Given the uncertainty on the exact location of the cold front, we
opted to keep the location for the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat
Advisory relatively small for tomorrow afternoon. For now, we
issued an Extreme Heat Warning across all of western north Texas
into parts of southwest Oklahoma. To the north of Extreme Heat
Warning, we issued a Heat Advisory for a row or two of counties.
These are the locations that we have the highest confidence to
meet Heat Advisory and/or Extreme Heat Warning criteria. We may
have to expand both products farther north depending on the
location of the cold front tomorrow.

There is the potential for isolated thunderstorms along the cold
front tomorrow afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop will be
capable of producing strong to wind gusts from downbursts given
the very hot conditions ahead of the front.

With the veered low-level flow and very hot temperatures ahead of
the cold front tomorrow, relative humidity values are forecast to
fall to around 15 to 20% across southwest Oklahoma into western
north Texas. This will result in elevated fire weather conditions
to perhaps locally near-critical fire weather conditions
(depending on the winds). With the ongoing drought and very dry
fuels, the total fire environment (weather + fuels) will be
susceptible to at least initial attack fires. Therefore, at the
very least, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) will be needed once
again tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning (RFW) could be needed if there
is a corridor of higher fire weather conditions. One area that
will have to be monitored carefully is near the location of the
cold front, where there will be a wind shift and the potential for
isolated thunderstorms that would pose a threat for gusty/erratic
winds and dry lightning.

For Tuesday, there will likely still be a north-to-south
temperature gradient with the cold front likely stalling in the
area. The hottest temperatures will continue to be across southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas with less hot conditions across
northern Oklahoma.

By Tuesday night, a complex of thunderstorms is expected to
approach from the northwest. The remnants of this complex may
produce a threat for strong to severe wind gusts across northwest
Oklahoma.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

As the second shortwave moves across the area on Wednesday, not out
of the question to see a few widely scattered showers/thunderstorms.
Latest medium range model runs of both the GFS and ECMWF show the
upper ridge drifting further southwest as we go through the second
half of the upcoming week. This will allow modest northwest flow to
continue through the end of the week and possibly into the weekend
with periodic shortwave troughs traversing the Southern Plains and
at least some rain chances continue.

With this retrogression of the upper ridge, it should allow
temperatures to cool from the peak of the heating that will be see
earlier in the week. However, it still appears that above normal
temperatures will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR ceilings with mid/high clouds. A front and sfc low are
expected to move into parts of the area Monday which will affect
the winds but in general SW to W winds are expected ahead of the
front with mainly N to NE winds behind the front. Scattered
showers/storms moving across the Panhandles may move into parts of
NW OK overnight and may affect KWWR. Scattered showers/storms are
also expected to develop overnight/early Monday in parts of north
central OK. There is then a third chance for showers/storms Monday
afternoon/evening for areas generally along and south of the
front. Chances are currently too low in some areas for mention in
TAFs. There is also uncertainty with the position of the front/sfc
low Monday afternoon although right now it looks like it could be
somewhere near the I-40 corridor. If storms develop Monday
afternoon/evening, strong, variable winds will be possible with
some of the storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78 105  77 102 /  10  20  20  10
Hobart OK         80 111  77 106 /   0  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  82 111  81 109 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           75 100  71  99 /  20   0  20  10
Ponca City OK     72  96  72  96 /  30  10   0  10
Durant OK         79 108  79 107 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ033-036-
     037-044-045.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ034-035-038-
     039-041-046>048-050>052.

TX...Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25