175
FXUS64 KOUN 202236
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
536 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Excessive heating returns to parts of our area today and
  continues through the weekend, with the most dangerous heating
  across southcentral Oklahoma.

- Isolated rain/storms are possible each day across parts of our
  area but are very limited in coverage and unorganized.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Despite this morning`s welcome rain showers and cloud cover, we are
on track to see triple digit temperatures again this afternoon
across the forecast area. Generally 100-105 north of I-40 and 105-
110 south of I-40. Additionally, dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s in north central Oklahoma will bump up heat indices into the 105-
110 range there. The heat advisory and extreme heat warning have
been expanded.

Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon in southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas due primarily to low RH values in
the upper teens. Winds will be fairly light, hovering around the
threshold that would limit RFTI to 0. ERCs continue above the 95th
percentile.

There is some signal for isolated to widely scattered showers this
afternoon and evening, driven by diurnal heating, mainly along and
south of I-40. CAMs suggest some additional showers overnight in
eastern Oklahoma, potentially affecting our eastern counties.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Heat remains the main story for Friday and Saturday, with widespread
heat indices in the 105 to 112 range. Heat impacts will be
exacerbated by mostly sunny skies (apart from some possible
pockets of cloud cover), light winds, and warm overnight lows (70s
to low 80s).

We`ll be watching fire weather across western Oklahoma and western
north Texas as well. RH driven elevated RFTIs will be possible with
light winds being the main limiting factor.

We`ll also be watching for areas where we may see isolated to
scattered showers. Most areas are expected to remain dry, but the
ridge is shifted just far enough westward to allow for subtle waves
in the upper flow (+ lingering boundary remnants in the area) to
trigger some convection.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Upper ridge remains in place across the western two-thirds of the
country with the high/heat dome across the Southwestern U.S. with
its eastern extend creeping into the Southern Plains.  Although
northcentral Oklahoma may see another slight break from the heatwave
on Sunday from the aforementioned backdoor cool front but returning
back on Monday with triple digit highs widespread.  A series of mid-
level disturbances rounding the ridge may move through on Tuesday
and Wednesday bringing rain/storm chances on both days.  Fire
weather conditions may return early next week across our west but
mainly driven by very dry and hot air over dry vegetation from the
persisting extreme drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

While VFR category is expected to prevail, with an east-to-south
wind and areas of mid/high clouds, low chances for rain and storms
will continue into Friday, mainly across the eastern one-half of
Oklahoma. For now, have only included PROB30 mentions for a limited
time at the beginning of the period, near ongoing areas of
agitated cumulus growth/rain showers across southeastern
Oklahoma.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76 105  76 104 /  10  10  10  20
Hobart OK         77 108  77 108 /  10   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  79 108  79 109 /  10   0  20  20
Gage OK           72 104  73 102 /  10   0  10   0
Ponca City OK     72 100  74  98 /  20  10  10  10
Durant OK         78 107  77 107 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ006>008-011>023-026-
     033>038-044.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ024-025-
     027>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09