804
FXUS64 KOUN 201734
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1134 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

  - Widespread storms, heavy rain, and severe potential today and
    early tonight.

  - Rain chances return on Sunday into Monday, along with flash
    flood potential, especially across southern Oklahoma and
    western north Texas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

An active forecast is in store for us today. The highlights include
widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms, potential for
heavy rain and flooding, and the continued risk for strong to
severe thunderstorms. Let`s dig into it.

For the rest of this overnight period, thunderstorm coverage is
expected to be rather sporadic and limited. This is a bit contrary
to the archetypal cool-season warm front return, and we over-
performed with storm coverage this evening, but low-level warm
advection is rather meager. This combined with neutral-to-slightly-
rising heights are synoptic reasons to believe in a continued
scattered nature to storms. Any storms that do develop will have a
severe risk through daybreak thanks to slowly increasing instability
(the NAM suggests by daybreak we could be up to 2,500 J/kg of MUCAPE
and 70 knots of LCL-EL shear, so sporadic instances of 2+ inch hail
could continue).

After daybreak the main show gets going with the approach of the
upper-level trough into the extremely humid/unstable airmass. This
will likely take the form of a rather expansive band of warm
advection showers/storms lifting northward across the area during
the morning hours, potentially followed by a relative lull during
the midday. Later in the day, another band of showers/storms is
expected to develop along I-35 especially across southern Oklahoma.
We will need to watch out very carefully for the prestorm
environment ahead of this broken line - the LLJ is expected to ramp
way up and it would be very easy to end up with a "surprise" area of
damaging winds or weak tornadoes. Just as importantly, we will need
to watch for how many times southern and central Oklahoma see rounds
of storms. With the near-record PWATs in place, any area that sees
this will have the potential for flooding in the face of extremely
heavy rainfall rates.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

The upper low will come screaming through this evening and tonight
with somewhat cooler air behind the Pacific front. Precipitation
chances will end from west to east by daybreak on Friday.

Although most of the area will be behind at least one front on
Friday, it looks like another day of much-above-average temperatures
as subtle shortwave ridging builds in and the surface low stalls in
our area, preventing cold frontal passage. This is only a temporary
blockage; by Saturday, the next trough in the wavetrain will move by
to our north, and the ensuing period of northwest flow will be
enough to push that cold front across the area. Even then we won`t
dip to below-average temperatures, but it will start to feel a
little bit more like November.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

We don`t have long to wait for our next storm system. Height falls
ahead of the next trough/cutoff low will begin as early as Sunday
morning. Current global model guidance takes that cutoff low through
Kansas - a pretty favorable track for precipitation across the
southern and eastern portions of the area especially with a Pacific
frontal passage, similar to what we are seeing today. We`ll have to
monitor, but the 1-2 punch could be enough for some flooding
concerns to increase by the end of the weekend.

Rain continues on into Monday as the second low ejects to our north.
This time, the Pacific front that will bring rain chances to an end
is likely to pass through Monday night and leave us drier for the
day on Tuesday. After a multi-week run of temperatures remaining
above freezing, it finally looks like we will see overnight lows
drop down into that range by the middle of next week.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

An upper storm system will continue to move across the Southern
Plains with periods of TSRA with reduced ceilings and visibilities
in rain resulting in periods of MVFR to IFR categories at least
through 01Z. After 01Z could see ceilings further lower with rain
showers to an IFR category across many of our terminals at least
through 11-14Z then improving to a VFR category.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  55  69  46 / 100  60   0   0
Hobart OK         69  48  70  42 /  90  60   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  53  72  45 /  90  60   0   0
Gage OK           65  43  64  38 /  90  80   0   0
Ponca City OK     67  55  69  45 /  80  90  10   0
Durant OK         75  61  76  49 / 100  90  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...68