059
FXUS64 KOUN 220957
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
457 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 456 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Excessive heat continues through the weekend and into next week.

- Isolated to scattered rain/storms are possible most days.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Although perhaps not as strong as last night, there is an area of
warm air advection that develops overnight across central sections
of Oklahoma up into Kansas. This should result in at least a few
showers and perhaps thunderstorms after midnight. Currently most
likely area would be near and just east of I-35 corridor. The NAM
NEST is the most aggressive, while others have almost nothing, so
will lean somewhere is the middle as far as chances late tonight
into Saturday morning. Other isolated activity farther west and
south appears possible as well.

In addition to this, models hint at the potential for another
complex of storms moving out of Kansas around 8-10am and then moving
south and southeast across much of the eastern half of Oklahoma
during the day Saturday, skirting the OKC metro area. Although
inconsistencies in the models keep overall confidence rather low.
Much like yesterday, this will keep a fairly large area with at
least a period of cloud cover and possibly precip through the
morning before possibly clearing out in the afternoon, allowing
temperatures to climb, just how high is the question. There could be
a tight temperature gradient somewhere near or just west of I-35
Saturday afternoon.

Some models are redeveloping convection during the afternoon on
residual boundaries from morning activity, mainly near and south of
I-40. With the very hot surface temperatures and inverted-V type
soundings expected by afternoon. A few severe wind gusts will be
possible with this activity.

This will also make it a difficult forecast with regards to heat
headlines, but will lean a little more liberally with the potential
and have added several counties farther north and east into the
advisory. Still a chance that a some counties may need to be added
as things evolve today and a few might even need to be upgraded, but
confidence at this point is not there.

Will also need to continue to watch fire weather conditions across
western and southwestern Oklahoma into north Texas where the heat,
low afternoon humidity and stressed vegetation will result in some
areas of elevated fire weather. Possible outflow from convection will
also be a concern. This outflow could also be a focus for additional
afternoon and evening convective development across southern
Oklahoma into north Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

After the evening potential storms, the remainder of Saturday night
and Sunday look to be dry as upper ridge tries to reassert itself
further east across Oklahoma and north Texas. Any residual boundary
will likely wash out or quickly lift back northward early Sunday
leaving only north central Oklahoma to remain in the 90s Sunday
afternoon with the remainder of the area once again climbing into
the triple digits with southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas
possible above 110 degrees.

Winds will be rather light (10-15mph) Sunday, but the extreme heat
and low humidity will again create elevated fire weather conditions,
especially across western and southwestern Oklahoma and western
north Texas Sunday afternoon.

The upper ridge remains the dominate feature as we go into Monday,
meaning very little chance of precip. Additionally the models are
showing a surface low that develops in northwest Oklahoma and then
drifts east and southeast through the day with a trailing surface
boundary. A lot will depend on the location of this boundary through
the day, but along and south of it we will see a pre-frontal torch
with higher 850mb temperatures and stronger surface and low level
westerly winds. This will heighten the fire weather concerns Monday
afternoon in these areas with near critical conditions developing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This boundary may linger into Tuesday with slightly cooler
temperatures across the northern half of the area, but still baking
across the south with temperatures once again approaching 110
degrees. The ridge looks to push off to the southwest a bit as well
which allows better northwest flow to develop and slightly cooler
temperatures (still above normal). Although a few afternoon
showers/storms not out of the question Tuesday afternoon, a better
upper shortwave drops southeast out of the High Plains as we go into
Tuesday night and Wednesday. This should bring, at least to
northwest Oklahoma, a better chance of rain as storms move off the
higher terrain and slide southeast into Oklahoma.

Scattered activity may continue through the end of the week as the
northwest flow regime continues to bring some minor shortwaves
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 456 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across north
central and east central Oklahoma this morning, affecting KPNC and
KSWO. Additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across much of the area. A weak boundary will shift across
the area, causing winds to back to the east-southeast across most
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 103  74 102  78 /  20  10  10   0
Hobart OK        108  75 108  80 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 108  78 109  82 /  30  30   0   0
Gage OK          102  71 104  76 /  10  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     97  71  95  73 /  30   0  10  10
Durant OK        103  76 106  80 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ021>023-027-033>039-044>046-050.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13