043
FXUS64 KTSA 071442
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
842 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 842 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

 - A combination of colder air and low clouds moving into the
   region behind the front will yield below average cool weather
   for Sunday.

 - Above average warm weather is expected Tuesday to Thursday
   before another cold front brings temps crashing down by the end
   of the week.

 - Precipitation chances are very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The surface cold front has made it through the forecast area this
morning with another cold, cloudy day in store. Breezy northerly
winds have picked up behind the front. Near steady to slightly
falling temperatures are expected through the rest of today, with
wind chill values generally in the lower 30s for most locations
through this afternoon. The going forecast is handling current
trends pretty well. Made some minor adjustments to hourly
temperatures. We also cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory earlier
this morning as visibility conditions have improved over the area
this morning.

Bowlan

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Current surface analysis depicts an area of low pressure over
eastern KS, with a trailing cold front over central KS moving
toward the region. Ahead of the front, a cool and relatively
moist low level air mass remains in place, but this time with a
large area of low cloud over NE OK and NW AR. While skies have
cleared over SE OK and some fog is showing up over SW AR, low
clouds are either redeveloping or will be surging north into the
region later on tonight. All of this is to say that confidence in
a widespread dense fog event like what occurred last night does
not appear to be in the offing for tonight. Will let the midnight
shift reevaluate and issue an advisory if needed.

The cold front will enter NE OK after 3 AM and will sweep
southeast across the forecast area by midday. Gusty northwest
winds are expected behind the front, though not to advisory level.
A bank of low cloud dropping south out of Nebraska will surge into
the region toward daybreak and will overspread much of the
forecast area through the day. There is some potential that areas
west of highway 75 could see some rays of sun toward the end of
the day. The cold advection behind the front and low cloud will
hold highs below average for Sunday.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low clouds will likely persist over portions of eastern OK into
western AR into Monday morning. However, as we head into next week
the upper trough over the Plains will be shifting east, and the
resulting downslope flow will lead to clearing skies, more
sunshine and much warmer temps. Highs Tuesday through Thursday
will be above average for this time of year, climbing into the 50s
and 60s. Another cold front is expected by Thursday night, and
this will be a glancing blow of arctic air that is expected to
plunge south with a piece of the polar vortex into the Great Lakes
and Northeast late next week, sending temps crashing back down to
below average for Friday. After another cold day Saturday, a
warmup is expected to commence by Sunday.

The configuration of the upper flow pattern is not expected to
change much over the upcoming 7 days. Northwest flow will prevail
aloft over the Plains, with no upper troughing expected to our
west. This is a drier pattern for this part of the world and this
forecast will be no different.

The current negative phase of the AO (Arctic Oscillation)
definitely favors a southward plunge of arctic air into the
country as is forecast by the models for the latter part of next
week, the brunt of which is likely to be to our north and east.
The latest GEFS forecasts have the AO increasing back to neutral
or even positive by the middle of the month, which would be less
favorable for arctic intrusions into the country and may lead to
warmer weather for the latter half of the month. Time will tell.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Mainly MVFR ceilings will prevail through the forecast period.
North winds will increase this morning following the passage of a
cold front and will gust to near or above 20 knots at times today.
The winds will diminish this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  25  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   50  31  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   46  27  51  33 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   41  22  46  29 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   45  26  48  32 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   44  28  46  34 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   45  26  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   43  24  45  31 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  25  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   51  30  50  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...4
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05