788
FXUS64 KTSA 271103
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
503 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

 - Slightly below average temperatures and mostly dry today and Friday.

 - The next storm system arrives Friday night and Saturday
   bringing strong winds, rain, and low thunderstorm chances.

 - Very cold temperatures with at least low potential for
   impactful winter weather early next week. Please monitor for
   forecast updates as more details become available over the next
   several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A cool airmass is in place, but low clouds will likely keep
temperatures a bit above their potential this morning. Kept most
areas in the low to mid 30s in the north and upper 30s in the south.
However, if skies clear, temperatures could go a bit lower.

With light pressure gradients, winds will be minimal during the day
today. There will be a mixture of clouds and sun, with temperatures
warming 1-3F over yesterday, into the low to mid 50s in the north,
and upper 50s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Breezy southerly winds will develop Friday with highs in the mid to
upper 50s. Dry conditions are expected during the day, but moisture
levels will increase with time. A strong low level jet Friday
evening will steepen mid level lapse rates and saturate the mid
levels, with an upper level jet also impinging on the area.
Widespread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms, especially south
of I-40, will then develop. Rain will continue into Saturday before
moving east. Total rainfall will generally be 0.25 to 0.50 inches in
northeast OK to 0.50 to 1.00 inch for southeast OK into northwest
AR. A few areas could see locally higher or lower totals. A strong
cold front will then push through from northwest to southeast during
the day Saturday, with precipitation ending behind the front.

Very cold air will dump into the area late Saturday into Sunday. Low
temperatures Sunday morning will be well below freezing, coldest in
the north. There is still sizable uncertainty in terms of how
fast the cold air arrives as well as how intense it will be. The
CMC is among the coldest guidance with 925 mb temps of -10 to
-12C, whereas the GFS only reaches -6C. This will naturally affect
the forecast highs Sunday. Typically arctic air moves in a little
colder and faster than most guidance, so leaned the forecast in
that direction, with highs in the low to mid 30s in the north and
upper 30s to low 40s in the south.

Cold conditions persist Monday as a weak storm system approaches
from the west. Guidance remains uncertain, with some showing just
clouds, others showing mixed precip with perhaps some freezing rain
or sleet potential, while other guidance shows the potential for a
few inches of snow. The overall most likely outcome still appears to
be for little to no impactful winter weather, but this will need to
be monitored closely as models have trended wetter for this period.
For now, included snow or a mixture of rain and snow for areas near
and north of I-40 on Monday but no accumulation. If the wetter
solutions verify, high temperatures would need to be lowered a
couple of degrees from the current mid to upper 30s. A quick
moderation trend will follow with highs in the 40s Tuesday and 50s
Wednesday. Dry or mostly dry weather is also anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail through the
period. Current mid cloud deck should continue to shift eastward,
with largely high cloud expected by midday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  34  56  45 /   0   0   0  80
FSM   57  35  57  43 /   0   0   0  90
MLC   57  34  59  44 /   0   0   0  90
BVO   52  29  54  41 /   0   0   0  70
FYV   51  31  53  39 /   0   0   0  90
BYV   50  31  51  38 /   0   0   0  90
MKO   54  34  55  42 /   0   0   0  90
MIO   50  31  53  40 /   0   0   0  90
F10   55  33  56  42 /   0   0   0  90
HHW   57  34  56  42 /   0   0   0  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22