Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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714
FXUS64 KTSA 150455
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1055 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1055 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

 - Well above normal temperatures through early next week.

 - Dry weather will persist into early next week, with periodic
   breezy days which could locally raise grassland fire concerns,
   especially on Monday.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week with a
   heavy rain threat mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Southerly winds will maintain unseasonably mild and humid conditions
prior to sunrise this (Saturday) morning. Latest guidance from HREF,
SREF, and other hi-res model indicate patchy fog developing around
or just after midnight, mainly north of I-44. There is still some
uncertainty how far south and east fog will be able to develop. This
is mainly due to high clouds and slightly stronger winds forecast
right along and just south of I-44. Highest probabilities (30-50%)
of visibilities dropping to or below 1/2 mile will remain across
Osage, Pawnee, Washington, far northern Tulsa, and western Nowata
counties. If/where fog does form, visibilities should gradually
improve after sunrise.

The main storyline for the day will be the potentially record or
near-record hot temperatures by this afternoon, ahead of a weak cold
front. Guidance has been consistent showing 850mb temperatures
spiking between 20-22C across much of the region this morning. An
abundance of mixing through the morning and into the afternoon
should drastically increase temperatures. Additionally, recent runs
of the HRRR (as well as other hi-res models) have been persistent in
suggesting a pseudo-dryline bulge mixing eastward from central OK,
setting up generally in the vicinity between I-44 and just south of
I-40 and west of Highway 69 in eastern OK. This is the corridor
where the warmest temperatures are forecast to occur, just ahead of
the approaching front, where values 85F+ are anticipated due to the
drier air. Another area where temperatures may spike to 80F+ will be
in the Arkansas River Valley, where these kind of setups typically
and rigorously increase temperatures in this area. There will be
plenteous cirrus clouds aloft, especially during the morning hours,
which may affect temperatures some. However, these high clouds are
expected to thin and scatter out as the afternoon progresses.

Winds will start off mainly out of the south by daybreak this
morning, turning more southwesterly by late morning. Though a slight
increase of wind speeds will occur after sunrise, sustained speeds
should generally remain between 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph
ahead of the front. Though there is still some uncertainty on timing
of the front, consensus in guidance suggests the front will push
through from northwest to southeast beginning mid-late afternoon,
with generally light to moderate winds in its wake. Despite a drop
in dewpoints/relative humidity values along and west of Highway 75,
winds should remain light enough to cause only a limited to locally
elevated fire weather danger through this afternoon.

Forecast guidance suggests the frontal boundary will slow down and
struggle to push through southeast OK and western AR this evening
into late tonight. In any case, there is not a whole lot of cold air
advection behind the front. Low temperatures into Sunday morning may
be about 5-10 degrees cooler than this (Saturday) morning for many
locations, generally mid-upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures will
be a bit warmer across southeast OK and west-central AR, mid-upper
50s. Despite the slight cooldown, these temperatures are still about
10-15 degrees above seasonal average.

Mejia


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Abnormally warm and dry weather will persist through at least the
early part of next week. Though temperatures will cool down slightly
Sunday behind Saturdays cold front, mid/upper level ridging will
move across the region on Sunday, keeping temperatures unseasonably
mild. A shortwave trough will eject off the Rockies and push across
the Central Plains, remaining north of the area, during the daytime
Monday. This will cause Saturdays frontal boundary to lift back
northward move across the area. A few, low-impact, showers may
develop Monday into Monday night, mainly across northwest AR and far
eastern OK, as the boundary moves through. Breezy southerly winds
will also develop in the afternoon as the frontal boundary retreats
northward, causing limited to elevated fire weather concerns,
especially across portions of northeast OK where relative humidity
values will be lowest (25-35%). Another weak and dry frontal
boundary will push into northern portions of the CWA late Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the surface low shifts north and east
of the area.

The overall weather pattern becomes much more active mid to late
week, with multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain and even a few
thunderstorms.  A potent upper-level low/trough will dig south along
the West Coast Monday-Tuesday, drifting over the Desert Southwest by
Wednesday morning. Deep and rich moisture will be transported
northward into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of the
approaching upper low. Models and ensembles continue to favor heavy
to locally excessive rainfall Wednesday-Friday, with a bullseye
across southeast OK and western AR, as the upper-level trough/low
approaches and drifts overhead. There is still lots of discrepancies
in model and ensemble data of how this system will evolve and track.
The forecast will continue to be refined over the next few days.
Overall, confidence is increasing that multiple rounds of heavy rain
will occur through the second half of the workweek, but it is still
unclear where the heaviest rainfall will occur at this time.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

High clouds will continue to stream through the CWA overnight
tonight into Saturday. At the same time, few to scattered mid
clouds remain for parts of northwest Arkansas tonight before
potentially increasing again late in the TAF period. Also late
tonight into Saturday morning, fog potential remains for portions
of northeast Oklahoma and will continue with Tempo group for KBVO.
Winds look to remain up enough elsewhere to keep a mention out of
the rest of the TAFs. Stronger winds aloft and low level wind
shear also continue tonight. During the day Saturday, south to
southwesterly winds continue ahead of a surface boundary moving
into the CWA Saturday afternoon and evening. Behind the boundary,
variable winds are forecast to become northerly for Saturday
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  83  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  83  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   62  85  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   52  81  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   59  80  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   61  79  50  68 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   61  84  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   59  79  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  86  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  82  57  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...20