068
FXUS64 KTSA 092259
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
559 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 555 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

 - Hot and dry weather will persist through the week. A Heat
   Advisory is in effect for portions of eastern Oklahoma,
   northwest and west- central Arkansas Today and Monday.
   Additional heat headlines are likely in the coming days.

 - Any rain or storm chances will be confined to areas near the
   Kansas and Missouri borders late Friday and again Saturday
   night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The mid level ridge continues to hold strong near the Four Corners
through tonight resulting in dry and seasonably hot conditions.
The Heat Advisory remains in place this afternoon for portions of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west-central Arkansas with
some locations likely exceeding 110F for a short time. Meteograms
from yesterday indicated generally brief, less than 2 hour, length
of warning criteria precluding the need to upgrade. South-
southwest winds will be gusty this afternoon as a lee trough
deepens across the High Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The subtropical ridge gradually expands westward across the
southeast U.S. this week as a trough deepens along the west coast
by Wednesday. This will result in the ridge axis remaining in the
vicinity with the subtropical high center shifting to along the
Gulf Coast late in the week. With the ridge firmly overhead expect
continued hot conditions with triple digit heat across much of
eastern Oklahoma and near triple digits elsewhere through the
forecast period. The ensemble model trend has been for any late
week rain chances to shift more north with time as the ridge
repositions itself to the southeast. Therefore, continued
worsening of drought and fire weather conditions are expected.
With mid level height fields rising into the 95th+ percentile
relative to climatology by next weekend there are no real
indications of relief in the near term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty south to
southwest winds will drop below 10 kts by 01Z or 02Z before
increasing again by 15Z on Monday. Gusts may occasionally reach 20
kts during the day.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80 102  80 102 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   76  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   76  98  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   75 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   73  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   74  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   76  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
F10   75  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   74  95  75  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>068-
     070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053-
     055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-129-219-220-
     229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-129-219-
     220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...30