Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
677 FXUS64 KTSA 172329 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 629 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Shower and storm chances increase tonight through Saturday with a risk of severe weather, especially Saturday afternoon. - Strong cold front brings winds and a brief cool down Sunday, followed by breezy and warm conditions Monday resulting in limited fire weather danger. - More seasonable temperatures Tue-Fri with chance of rain returning late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Showers associated with a small scale shortwave lifting northeast across the region continue to decrease with mostly sunny skies and unseasonably warm conditions anticipated for the remainder of today. Low level southerly flow will continue to transport increasingly moist and unstable air into eastern OK through the afternoon and evening, with winds resulting in very mild temps overnight... widespread mid to upper 60s for lows. Upper level forcing associated with approaching western trough will begin to spread across the local forecast area later tonight with a strengthening low level jet aiding in development of scattered to numerous mainly elevated storms across northeast OK, with enough organization to support a low hail threat with stronger cells. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 More organized severe potential then develops during the day Saturday as a deepening shortwave rotates through base of large scale trough moving into the central U.S. and strong deep layer wind fields overspread unstable airmass. The current expectation is for sufficient instability to develop across southeast OK through western AR by early afternoon to result in robust organized updrafts. At the high-end of possibilities is for more discrete development ahead of the expected linear storm development, which would result in slightly higher tornado and large hail potential, with threat of damaging wind gusts with the more linear mode. One mitigating factor in all this is potential for more widespread convection to linger into part of Saturday afternoon and limit the instability. By mid to late afternoon the threat of storms should move off to the east. Strong cold front is expected Saturday evening with gusty north winds in the 25-35 mph for at least a few hours with much drier and cooler air to follow. It will actually feel like fall Sunday starting out with temps in the mid 40-lower 50s and highs mostly in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Wind shift quickly back to the south Sunday night and Monday resulting in a much warmer day Monday, with gusty south winds through a good part of the day and lingering dry air resulting in limited fire weather danger. Wind should relax later in the day as another front approaches, which cools us back down for Tuesday. The next chance for precipitation looks to be Thu/Fri with a weak upper system moving across the plains, and overall temperatues will be close to average. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Thunderstorms are forecast to impact all terminals starting at KBVO and northwest AR sites by 09-12Z with a second more extensive round from late morning into the afternoon impacting the remainder of sites. Skies will remain VFR for the most part outside of the stronger convection. The strongest activity and thus poorest conditions in and near storms are expected across western AR terminals between 18-21Z. A broad area of showers will continue after the initial line moves through and last much of the remainder of the afternoon, gradually ending from the west as a cold front begins to move through late in the period. Winds will become gusty again out of the south on Saturday with speeds 18-25kt before slackening off some as the front approaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 80 49 71 / 50 60 10 0 FSM 68 81 52 71 / 10 90 30 0 MLC 68 81 49 72 / 10 80 10 0 BVO 63 79 45 70 / 60 70 10 0 FYV 65 78 44 67 / 30 90 30 0 BYV 65 77 47 64 / 20 90 40 0 MKO 67 80 48 70 / 30 80 10 0 MIO 65 78 45 67 / 60 80 20 0 F10 67 81 47 71 / 20 70 10 0 HHW 68 81 52 71 / 10 70 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...24