533
FXUS64 KTSA 081820
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
120 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 113 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

 - Hot and humid weather will settle in through Thursday with heat
   impacts likely each day.

 - Thunderstorm chances and a severe weather threat return late
   Thursday into Friday night.

 - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and a low severe weather risk
   will continue into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Ongoing activity on the western edge of the decaying MCS will
continue to shift east this afternoon. A very low chance of
additional pop-up showers will be possible across far southeast
Oklahoma this afternoon, however proximity to the building ridge
will preclude any mentionable PoPs. Another MCS is forecast to
develop overnight across northern Kansas with development and
propagation to the southeast. With a southwesterly low level jet
in place and an axis of elevated instability extending into
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas opted to leave low
(<20%) PoPs in place after 09Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The mid-level ridge will amplify across the region on Tuesday with
plenty of sunshine helping temperatures climb to around 90 or
above. Afternoon heat index values will likely reach or exceed 105
degrees across portions of northeast Okalhoma and the Arkansas
River Valley where a Heat Advisory has been posted. Additional
heat headlines are expected through Thursday despite height rises
being limited as a strong trough develops over the Intermountain
West into the northern Rockies. Thursday looks to be the hottest
day temperature-wise after very warm overnight lows with no relief
from the humidity. Thunderstorm activity forming across the High
Plains along the leading edge of the approaching trough may
approach the area Tuesday night and Wednesday night but PoPs
remain below 10%.

Medium-range guidance is in agreement on general W-E flow across the
Plains through weekend with a frontal boundary making progress south
into the forecast area late Thursday into the overnight Friday.
Thunderstorms chances will increase with the front and hang around
through the remainder of the forecast as disturbances pass along
the southern periphery of the main belt of westerlies just to our
north. Multiple rounds of rainfall and low end severe weather are
possible within this pattern through the weekend as temperatures
settle back into the 80s taking some of the edge off the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to wane across northwest AR,
and no further impacts on terminals are expected. VFR conditions
will prevail through the period, with gusty south winds through
this afternoon. There is some low cloud potential around sunrise
from southeast OK into northwest AR and patchy fog is also
possible in valleys sheltered from the south winds, both of which
may result in MVFR conditions at least briefly in those locations.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  77  91  77 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   91  76  93  76 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   90  78  91  78 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   90  76  92  77 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   87  76  89  76 /  60  10   0   0
BYV   86  73  89  73 /  80  20   0   0
MKO   89  75  90  75 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   89  75  91  75 /  70  20   0   0
F10   89  75  90  75 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   90  76  90  76 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ055>063-067-
     154-254-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...14