Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
699 FXUS64 KTSA 142345 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 545 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Well above normal temperatures through early next week. - Dry weather will persist through weekend with periodic breezy days which could locally raise grassland fire concerns. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week with a heavy rain threat mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Warm and breezy conditions continue today with dew points in the low 60s making for a spring-like day. Corridor of relatively dry air SW of OKC metro may nudge northeast toward parts of eastern OK later this afternoon resulting in lower RH west of Highway 75 and potentially locally higher fire weather danger for a short time. Continuation of south winds with high dew points maintained will keep overnight lows tonight very mild once again with upper 50s/lower 60s in most places. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Very warm to near record temperatures expected Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front, which will enter parts of northeast OK during the afternoon. South winds will continue, but winds will also veer with a relaxing gradient south of the front. Given the anomalously high 850mb temps forecast, should see a corridor south of the front where temps warm well into the 80s, along with a notable drop in dew points. Fire spread potential within this corridor will be reduced by the lighter winds. Main impact of the cold front will be a shift to northeast winds and a modest cool-down Saturday night into Sunday for most of the area, albeit still several degrees above normal. Initial shortwave ejecting out of the western trough Monday still expected to track to our north. This will aid in quickly lifting the frontal boundary back north Monday, with some potential for a few showers along the retreating boundary mainly across western AR. Temperatures will jump back up Monday afternoon with breezy south winds resulting in likely the greatest period of concern for fire weather conditions, as dew points will be a little slower to return. Mid to late next week still looks wet overall, but the evolution of the upper low off the Pacific coast presently remains quite uncertain. Overall rain chances will begin to increase, potentially as early as Tuesday night as the frontal boundary pushes back south and the upper level flow strengthens from the southwest. Substantial moisture return still looks possible and ensemble guidance continues to point to at least a low to medium potential for heavy or locally excessive rainfall during the latter half of the work week, currently favoring southeast OK into northwest AR being the most likely area impacted. Forecast timing, amounts and locations of heaviest rainfall will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Few to scattered mid and high clouds ongoing early evening should remain common through late evening and them become mainly high clouds overnight tonight. There remains potential for few to scattered mid clouds lingering over parts of northwest Arkansas overnight. Also tonight, as winds weaken this evening, winds aloft are expected to increase and will carry low level wind shear tonight for all TAF sites. Early Saturday morning there is potential for reduced visibility for portions of northeast Oklahoma and have added a Tempo group for KBVO. During the day Saturday, south/southwesterly winds and high clouds continue ahead of a surface boundary entering northeast Oklahoma mid/late afternoon. This is some potential for few/scattered MVFR developing during the day Saturday as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 60 83 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 60 83 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 62 84 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 52 79 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 59 79 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 61 78 51 68 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 61 83 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 59 78 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 F10 60 86 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 61 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...20