Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
792 FXUS64 KTSA 250440 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Light rain, drizzle, and patchy fog lingers into tonight for portions of the forecast area, especially north of I-40. - Strong and dry cold front on Tuesday afternoon will drop temperatures slightly below average through the rest of the week. - Wetter weather pattern arrives Friday night and into the upcoming weekend, potentially accompanied by colder air next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Mid level shortwave centered over northern MO continues to move quickly east, with a continued decrease in wrap around moisture into NW AR and NE OK. Still seeing a few lingering showers but these should wane over the next few hours. Low levels remain near saturated over a large part of the area with widespread stratus lingering through most of the local forecast area. Locations along the western fringe of the cloud deck have seen dense fog at times and some of this could build into parts of eastern OK, primarily west of Highway 75 overnight. However, a weak surface trough oriented N-S lies over eastern OK and later tonight this will slide more to the east with a shift to a more west sfc wind, albeit light. High-res data suggests this may result in subtle drying of the boundary layer and ultimately reduce fog potential. For now no advisory is planned, however a short duration one may become necessary should later trends warrant. A strong shortwave moving out of the Northern Rockies will swing through the plains later today and push a more substantial boundary through the region late morning and early afternoon. Drier airmass behind the front will scour low level moisture out and result in a return to clearing skies this afternoon with breezy northwest winds gusting in the 20-30 mph range. So a warmer afternoon shaping up despite frontal passage with highs reaching low-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Sfc high will continue to build in from the northwest tonight with temperatures ultimately dropping to near freezing in parts of NE OK/NW AR. As the high settles farther south most areas will see at least a light freeze by Thursday morning. Weather remains quiet through Friday with temperatures slightly below average. The overall idea of the forecast for the weekend into early next week hasn`t changed, but a lot of details to sort out. A deep trough is forecast to develop over the western states by the weekend with increasing southwest flow aloft across the plains states. With this and a return to stronger south winds at the surface, precipitation chances do begin to increase by Saturday, with some thunderstorm potential as well. Complicating factor will be potential surge of considerably colder air, and when it may arrive. A trend toward colder temps with continuing precipitation chances will be carried into Monday, but forecast details for the weekend and early next week will change over the next few days && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibilities in fog will continue through late Tuesday morning, with improving conditions to VFR ern OK sites Tuesday afternoon as cold front pushes into the area. Improvement to VFR also expected nwrn AR sites Tuesday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 51 64 34 51 / 30 0 0 0 FSM 52 66 37 53 / 40 0 0 0 MLC 49 66 37 54 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 46 63 30 51 / 40 0 0 0 FYV 50 61 32 49 / 40 0 0 0 BYV 52 61 32 47 / 50 0 0 0 MKO 52 64 34 51 / 20 0 0 0 MIO 51 61 32 48 / 40 0 0 0 F10 49 64 34 51 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 48 64 38 55 / 10 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...69