495
FXUS64 KTSA 241200
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
600 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

  - High rain chances with isolated-scattered thunderstorms Monday.
    Locally heavy rainfall across SE OK and NW AR is the primary
    concern.

  - After Monday, near normal temperatures and dry conditions
    will prevail through the remainder of the workweek.

  - Next storm system and rain chances arrive next Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Area of light to moderate rain with a few embedded thunderstorms
continues to expand across eastern OK this evening in response to
increased forcing ahead of a compact upper low centered over
southeast CO. Fetch of anomalously high moisture continues to stream
north, with central TX RAOBS sampling precipitable water values
above 90th percentile. In addition, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
analyzed through much of SE OK, where efficient rain producing
thunderstorm potential will remain highest overnight. The initial
rain shield will continue to lift northeast over the next several
hours, but additional convection is likely to expand back into
primarily southeast OK and northwest AR later tonight into early
Monday morning. Heaviest overall rainfall will thus remain focused
in that region. For the most part the amounts should stay in the
1-2 inch range, which remains below FFG, however high rain rates
could result in at least localized flash flooding. There is also
some hints in high-res data of a narrow axis of greater totals in
the 3 inch plus range, but no strongly favored location noted at
this time.

The upper low will continue to move east into the Central Plains
through tonight and eventually become more of an open wave. Mid
level dry slot will surge across much of the area this afternoon
with the more widespread precip forced off to the east. As the wave
passes just north of the forecast area, additional more scattered
showers will persist across mainly northeast OK and northwest AR,
with at least a few thunderstorms as subtle mid level cooling takes
place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Showers will taper off from the west this evening as the upper wave
is absorbed into stronger westerlies and quickly moves off to the
east. Another shortwave diving into the Great Lakes region
Tuesday will force a fairly strong cold front through the area
during the day Tuesday, resulting in a period of gusty northwest
winds. Also, an eventual return to slightly below normal
temperatures through Wed night, with a widespread light freeze
expected at that time.

By the weekend the surface high will be off to the east and south
winds will increase as a trough deepens in the west. This will bring
the next chance of rain and thunderstorms beneath strengthening
southwest flow aloft. The evolution of this pattern is quite
uncertain beyond that. For right now the forecast will maintain some
rain chances into Sunday with a downward trend in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Showers along with thunderstorm chances will continue across the
southern half of the CWA through this afternoon, while rain
chances remain for the northern half of the CWA. Will continue
Tempo/Prob30 groups for timing of greater precip potentials.
Additional rain chances along with possible areas of drizzle are
forecast this evening and potentially continuing into the
overnight hours as an area of low pressure moves over the region.
Along with the precip, conditions varying from LIFR to low end VFR
are forecast through this afternoon before becoming mainly
LIFR/IFR conditions tonight. Winds through the period start out
southeasterly into this evening and become more light/variable
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  50  65  35 /  50  20   0   0
FSM   61  52  66  38 /  90  30   0   0
MLC   63  49  66  37 /  80  10   0   0
BVO   59  47  63  30 /  60  20   0   0
FYV   59  50  63  33 /  90  40   0   0
BYV   59  52  63  34 /  90  40   0   0
MKO   61  50  64  35 /  70  20   0   0
MIO   59  52  62  33 /  70  40   0   0
F10   61  48  63  35 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   61  49  65  39 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20