419
FXUS63 KIND 110114
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
914 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend this weekend back to the 70s

- Continued dry weather expected through the next week, along with
  mild days and cool nights.

- Little to no chances for rain in the extended forecast

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The forecast remains in great shape with only minor adjustments
needed. Surface high pressure remains in control across the region
which will continue to promote quiet weather. A weak front over
central IL is currently pushing towards the region with enhanced
low-mid level stratus evident on satellite imagery. Look for
clouds to increase as the front moves in later tonight. This will
limit diurnal cooling, keeping temperatures in the upper 40s to
low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Warm and dry conditions continue into the weekend across Indiana.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows high clouds pushing in
overhead associated with a dying complex of showers in Missouri.
Lowered high temperatures by a couple degrees to account for the
cloud cover, keeping today`s highs in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees.

A weak frontal boundary pushes in from the northwest during the
overnight hours; however with such dry antecedent conditions, not
expecting any precipitation locally. There is enough moisture along
the front for lower stratus to develop with, as seen on satellite
imagery upstream. Cloud cover overnight should keep overnight lows
quite a bit warmer tonight than last night with lows in the 50s.

High pressure builds back into the Great Lakes for the weekend
switching flow around to the northeast. Partly to mostly cloudy
skies remain through the early morning hours as moisture becomes
trapped under a low level inversion. Expect clearing skies late
morning into the afternoon as mixing begins and drier air filters
in. The frontal passage from overnight should not have any impact on
temperatures as low level cooler air will remain north of the
region. Forecast soundings show steep low level lapse rates under a
subsidence inversion tomorrow afternoon, but with higher mixing
heights than on Friday. With clearing skies and better surface
heating, high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s are likely across
Central Indiana. Low level flow is relatively weak, so still expect
afternoon winds only around 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Friday)...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Yet another extended period of dry and quiet weather will encompass
the weekend and most if not all of next week with broad ridging
aloft and at the surface. Skies will be mostly clear through much of
the period with any more substantial cloud cover being largely
confined to the middle of next week as a weakening frontal boundary
drifts into the lower Great Lakes before retreating back to the
north.

Temperatures will remain above normal for mid October throughout
next week. The ongoing drought and antecedent dry conditions over
the region along with a lack of significant moisture transport will
continue to promote exaggerated diurnal ranges through the extended.
Have continued recent trends of nudging highs and lows to the
farther ends of the guidance envelope. Highs will generally be above
70 degrees through the next 7 days with lows largely ranging between
the mid 40s and mid 50s. Upper level heights across the forecast
area will be maximized early next week with the warmest highs
expected Monday and Tuesday in the mid and upper 70s. Spots in the
lower Wabash Valley may make a run at 80 both days as well.

Heights aloft will buckle slightly by late next week in response to
an upper low diving into New England. This will bring subtly cooler
air into the region courtesy of easterly flow for Thursday and
Friday with highs in the 70 to 75 range from east to west. Potential
exists for a better threat for rain by late next weekend but long
range trends maintain a warmer than normal pattern across the Ohio
Valley in the 10-14 day period.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

High pressure will continue to provide VFR conditions and light
winds through the period. There is an area of lower stratus along an
approaching front which should make its way into Central Indiana
tonight. This will bring cigs down into the 3500-6000ft range. MVFR
cigs are not expected, but cannot rule out cigs briefly dropping
to near 3,000 feet or so.

Light southerly winds this evening will become light and variable
overnight. The front passes through the region overnight resulting
in winds shifting to the northeast after 15z tomorrow, still under
10 kts.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Melo