238
FXUS63 KIND 032218
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
618 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers through the evening, mainly across western and
  southern Indiana

- Next best chance for rain is late Monday night through Tuesday
  night.

- Dry weather with seasonable temperatures return on Wednesday and
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Rest of Today and Tonight.

As the cu field continues to grow across western Indiana coverage in
showers is likely to begin to increase with weak instability
interacting with a weak trough and vorticity aloft. Lift in the low
and mid levels is fairly minimal but enough to allow for some
vertical growth in the cu fields which has allowed for off and on
showers to persist through the day. Peak coverage is likely to be in
the 4PM to 8PM timeframe with decreasing coverage into the early
overnight with the loss of daytime heating. That being said, total
coverage will be fairly low with only 10-15 percent at most of the
areas expected to see any rain.

Skies will become mostly clear by 10 PM with some passing cirrus
aloft. Temperatures tonight will stay mild with the higher surface
dew points with most areas remaining in the low 60s.

Saturday.

The ridge aloft will gradually strengthen into early Saturday with
any lingering vorticity aloft from the weak trough dissipating by
Saturday morning. Skies are expected to be mostly clear outside of
passing cirrus and diurnally driven cu with no chance for rain.
Temperatures are expected to remain much above normal through
tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Saturday Night Through Tuesday.

The pattern will remain persistent through the remainder of the
weekend with ridging aloft and much above normal temperatures.
Forecast highs for Sunday are expected to be within a few degrees of
the record with another day of highs in the mid 80s likely. The
pattern will then begin to shift late Sunday into Monday as a
frontal system approaches from the northwest. Models are beginning
to hone in on a smaller window for the frontal passage which looks
to be Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and a few rumbles
of thunder ahead of the front. Total QPF has been trending higher
over the last few model runs with the potential for localized
amounts as high as an inch.

Wednesday Through Friday.

Much cooler weather will move in behind the frontal passage with the
potential for lows in the upper 30s to low 40s Wednesday night and
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s through Friday. Surface high
pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the second half
of the week with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 618 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected to continue at the terminals through
Saturday evening. Slow moving isolated convection persists across
west central Indiana but should diminish shortly after sunset. Skies
will become mostly clear overnight into Saturday morning with light
southwesterly winds.

A subtle weakness aloft remains across the region on Saturday which
could generate a few showers once again for the afternoon although
confidence remains low in this occurring. Model soundings do suggest
diurnal cu development for the afternoon. S/SW winds at 5-10kts are
anticipated.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Ryan