Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171043
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
543 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

For the rest of tonight, little to no clouds are expected with
quiet weather to persist through the morning and light winds less
than 10mph out of the southeast. The HRRR and GFS is picking up on
some convective activity shortly after sunrise through the mid
morning south of Dodge City to include Meade and Clark Counties,
but no other models are picking up much of this trend. PoPs are
increased to 20% coverage during this time to account for any
storm activity during this time but none are expected to be severe
and will be short lived. CAPE values of 500-1000J/kg are spread
across this area, so if storm development does occur, small hail
and stronger winds could occur at this time. The certainty of
this is low with model agreement at a minimal.

Morning lows will start the day in upper 50s to low 60s across
the CWA under clear skies in most areas outside the aforementioned
storm chance. Temperatures will quickly rise throughout the day
with highs tomorrow afternoon in the mid to upper 80s. Winds will
begin to pick up around the noon timeframe as a leeside trough
develops across eastern Colorado increasing to a more southerly
fetch gusting up to 25-30mph in many areas. High clouds are
expected to push in across the region spilling over an induced
upper level ridge pushing eastward out of Colorado. A closed low
over northern Utah and southern Idaho will continue to deepen due
to increased upper level divergence allowing for southwest flow to
continue across western Kansas. Models show its slow eastward
progression over the course of Thursday allowing for an
interesting severe weather pattern for areas west of Highway 83.
Continued moisture advection due to a more east of south low level
flow will allow dewpoints to remain in the 50s for most of the
area with a dryline close to the Colorado/Kansas border keeping
any thunderstorm development for the two western tiers of counties
in the CWA. CAPE values are shown to be at least 2000J/kg and
sufficient enough shear values will allow for scattered storms to
develop during the late afternoon and into the evening hours.

After any storm development that does occur tomorrow night will
see diminishing winds after sunset and over night due to night
time cooling and a shallow temperature inversion at the surface
with light southeast winds less than 10mph. Low temperatures
Friday morning will be in the low to mid 60s making for a more
humid and muggy environment for most of the CWA with dewpoints in
the 50s and even low 60s for the southeastern counties. Limited
fog areas could develop in parts where precipitation fell Thursday
evening, coupled with the moist southeast upslope flow and light
mixing under the aforementioned inversion.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Friday will see a warm and humid day with afternoon highs in the
upper 80s and even low 90s for portions along the Oklahoma border
with dew points in the 50s and low 60s. Severe weather will
threaten much of the CWA east of a line from Highway 83. Models
tend to agree on thunderstorm development along this line by late
afternoon and pushing eastward through the evening and early over
night hours before weakening and pushing out of the CWA after
midnight. CAPE values up to 3000J/kg and a more ideal wind shear
environment looks to be set up across the area with main threats
being of large hail and damaging wind along with a chance for
tornado development as well not being ruled out. SPC currently has
a slight risk over this portion of the CWA and this is agreed to
be the case. An upper level low currently across northern portions
of Utah will slowly progress eastward into northwestern Colorado
continuing the southwest flow aloft trend for western Kansas. A
shortwave trough will help aid as the trigger for the severe
weather activity Friday afternoon and evening coupled with the
dryline at the surface along this corridor. Confidence at this
point is in the mid level range for timing but higher for severe
weather to occur overall and its location. The next couple of
model runs will help solidify the forecast closer to this event
occurring.

Friday night into Saturday will see low temperatures starting off
in the upper 50s and into the 60s. Afternoon highs will only reach
the upper 70s to low 80s due to a cold frontal boundary that will
push through the region bringing in dryer, more stable air behind
it with no precipitation chances along with it. High pressure will
build in behind the aforementioned front with winds swinging back
around to a more moist, upslope southeasterly flow for Sunday with
high temperatures only in the 70s for the entire CWA. Winds will
stay on the relatively light scale less than 15mph for the
remainder of the weekend allowing for pleasant outdoor activities.

Monday through Thursday will revert back to a more active severe
weather pattern with return flow in the low levels back out of the
southeast coupled with more unstable environments. Upper level
flow will return back out of the southwest with another long wave
trough along the western portion of the country with a series of
shortwaves being part of the trigger for any thunderstorm activity
every afternoon with PoPs in the 20s, which is normal for this
time of year in May. High temperatures will soar back into the 80s
Monday with 90s possible for southern counties along the Oklahoma
border for Wednesday and Thursday. Morning lows will be quite mild
and muggy with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s and
dewpoints in the 50s for relative humidity values in the 90
percent range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail this morning under high pressure with
clear skies and light southeasterly winds for all locations. High
cirrus will push in later this morning as winds pick up at the
surface under an increased pressure gradient due to a leeside
trough that will develop along the Colorado border. The winds
will diminish after sunset due to night time cooling and a shallow
temperature inversion sets up at the surface. A severe weather
pattern looks to set up across the western CWA with LBL expected
to have showers and VCTS during the late afternoon and evening
time frames.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Low risk for today in regards to fire weather, but will see a
return of at or near red flag conditions for Friday afternoon for
the western counties west of Highway 83 behind a dryline that will
push eastward to this point. Elevated conditions expected for
Saturday behind a cold front that will increase northwest winds up
to 30mph as well as dryer, downsloping conditions. Sunday and
Monday will also see a lower risk due to return flow back out of
the southeast advecting moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico and
across the great state of Texas. Elevated conditions will return
for Tuesday and Wednesday for the western counties once again
associated with being behind another dryline and warming
downsloping winds out of the southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  63  87  61 /  20  40  20  30
GCK  85  61  88  57 /  20  40  20  20
EHA  89  60  91  56 /  30  30  10   0
LBL  88  64  92  59 /  30  60  20  10
HYS  85  64  84  61 /  10  30  30  40
P28  87  65  89  66 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Lowe
FIRE WEATHER...Lowe



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