Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 170253

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1053 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

High pressure will build across the region for the weekend, with
mainly dry weather and cool temperatures. The cool and dry weather
pattern will last into early next week as another high pressure
builds into the Great Lakes.


Regional radars display the region mainly dry this late evening,
with just a few flurries across southern Lewis and the western
Adirondack foothills. These flurries and eventual light snow
showers linger tonight across the higher terrain east of Lake

High pressure will continue to nose into the Mid-West between low
pressure in the Central Plains and the previous Nor`easter that is
blocked across the Canadian Maritimes.

Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes is blocked and as high
pressure moves to our southwest, northwest flow will continue
tonight and into Saturday. Warm air advection will move into the
region briefly from the southwest as ridging occurs this evening. A
shortwave trough will move southward from Quebec Province late
tonight and into Saturday. Heights and temperatures aloft will begin
to fall from northeast to southwest across the eastern Great Lakes.
Temperatures cold enough to produce lake effect activity will be
present across Lake Ontario and lake effect snow showers are
expected to pick back up east- southeast of Lake Ontario. Farther
south...temperatures aloft will be borderline to produce enough
instability for lake effect across Lake Erie. Snow showers will
mainly be confined to the North Country and settle across the
eastern Lake Plains including Wayne, N. Cayuga and Oswego counties
Saturday. A mix of sun, clouds and flurries are expected across
Western NY Saturday. Due to a dry airmass and low inversion heights,
less than an inch of accumulation is expected.

Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20s on the lake plains,
and mid to upper teens across the Southern Tier valleys and Lewis
County. On Saturday, temperatures will reach the low to mid 30s
across Western NY and 20s across the North Country and higher
elevations across Western NY.


High pressure and drier air will remain draped across the area
Saturday night and will keep fair dry weather across our region
along with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. In conjunction
with light winds and lingering snow cover...this will allow
for strong radiational cooling with overnight lows ranging
from zero to 5 above across the North Country to the mid and
upper teens across most areas south of Lake Ontario.

Sunday and Sunday evening dry weather will largely continue...
though cannot rule out a few flurries or light snow showers across
the eastern Finger Lakes and North Country as another mid-level
shortwave quickly dives southeastward across eastern New York and
New England...and pushes an attendant weak and moisture starved cold
front across our area. With some modification of our airmass out
ahead of this boundary...we can expect highs on Sunday to recover
into the upper 20s/lower 30s east of Lake Ontario and to the 35-40
range elsewhere. In the wake of the front...modest cold air
advection will then help to send readings back down into the teens
to lower 20s south of Lake Ontario Sunday night...while the North
Country should see temps fall back into the single digits.

After that...high pressure and drier air will reconsolidate its grip
on our region for the balance of this period...thereby yielding fair
and dry weather for both Monday and Monday night. With a colder
airmass in place...highs on Monday should range from the mid 20s
across the North Country to the lower to mid 30s south of Lake
Ontario...with lows Monday night then likely to be relatively
similar to those of the preceding night.


The focus for next week remains on the track and impact associated
with what models continue to show as another storm system developing
near Colorado Monday then tracking to the southern Appalachians or
Mid-Atlantic regions by Tuesday before shifting off the East Coast
on Wednesday and north to the Canadian Maritimes through Thursday.
While all 12z Operational Global models show the track of the storm
forecast to be south and east of western and central New York, the
12z GFS remains more bullish than the EC/GEM with northward extent
of moisture and associated snow possibilities. If the GFS is right
then snow will be possible in our region but if the EC/GEM models
are right then we could just remain dry through next week as strong
high pressure ridges south across New York. Have continued chance
POPs for snow Tuesday-Thursday as we are not completely ready to
lower POPs following the GEM/EC solutions. Keep tuned to the
forecast as we move through the weekend as converging model
solutions will help sway the forecast either snowier or drier.
Friday looks to be dry as the coastal storm will likely be over the
Canadian Maritimes and strong Canadian high pressure ridges south
across the eastern US. Slightly below normal temperatures will
continue with highs topping out in the 30s and low dip into the 20s
and teens.


For the 00Z TAFS mainly VFR flight conditions are found across the
region. Lingering strato-cu across the So. Tier should push east of
KJHW in the next few hours, while SE of Lake Ontario diminishing
lake effect snow is found. Energized by a passing shortwave, this
lake effect snow may increase slightly late tonight east of Lake
Ontario, including KART, and there will be chances for a few
flurries to fly in the vicinity of KART.

There after VFR flight conditions will be predominate for the
remainder of the TAF cycle.

Saturday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...A chance of snow showers.


Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure over the
western Great Lakes will maintain moderate to strong northwest winds
through tonight, with the strongest winds on Lake Ontario. This will
continue to support Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake
Ontario. High pressure will then build slowly east and closer
to the region later Saturday and Saturday night, with winds and
waves slowly subsiding from west to east.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for LOZ042.



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