Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 171833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
233 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will provide dry weather
tonight. A weak cold front will push through the area Sunday. High
pressure will then build back into the region for Monday through
much of next week with an extended period of dry weather expected.
Temperatures will remain below normal through next week.


Tonight, a broad region of high pressure extending from the northern
Plains through the Great Lakes will keep fair, but cold weather
across the area tonight. A few diurnally/lake driven clouds will
dissipated early tonight leaving clear skies, although there
will be some patchy mid level clouds developing late tonight. A
slackening gradient will bring another round of efficient
radiational cooling. This will allow lows to drop back into the
teens in most areas away from the immediate lakeshores, with
single digits east of Lake Ontario. The typically colder spots
may drop to near zero across the Tug Hill region.

Weak cold front currently stalled over the northern Great Lakes will
begin to ease its way southward through the lower Great Lakes during
the day Sunday. Moisture will be severely lacking with this system
which will lead to just patchy clouds with the frontal passage.
The combination of weak low level warm advection ahead of the front
and mid March surface heating should boost high temperatures into
the mid 30 to around 40 for most places, but likely remaining just
below freezing across portions of the North Country.


High pressure will cross the central Canadian Provinces and approach
the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night. Post-frontal conditions will
be present across the eastern Great Lakes as a cold front over
Central PA moves south into the Northern Mid-Atlantic region. Mostly
dry conditions are expected however cannot rule out some flurries
mainly from the Northern Finger Lakes eastward across the North
Country behind the subtle frontal passage.

High pressure will be in control to start the work week. Northerly
winds will keep the region cool with temperatures below normal. Low
pressure will continue to deepen across the Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys Monday. The forecast trend continues to keep this
system to the south resulting in a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic
coast Tuesday, the first day of Spring. Most deterministic forecast
models have the forecast area mainly dry however ensemble members
keep the potential for snow across the region with the best chance
across the Southern Tier. Kept a low chance of snow showers across
the Southern Tier while keeping areas further north dry Tuesday.
Below normal temperatures expected with highs in the 30s and lows in
the teens and 20s Monday-Tuesday night.


The global model trend in the extended forecast remains toward an
overall cool yet likely dry pattern. Forecast models have continued
to trend the next potential storm system southward and eastward,
tracking the developing low pressure system off the Carolina coast
Tuesday, with the consensus track now actually farther off the New
England coastline through mid week. Given this continued trend in
the models, have continued to decrease PoPs through the extended
forecast, with now only slight chance PoPs. However, if this trend
holds, there is a good chance we may finally see a long stretch of
quiet weather right through the end of the week. The only catch to
this dry weather would be below normal temperatures with highs in
the 30s and lows in the teens/20s.


VFR will prevail through tonight. Expect some thin/high cirrus and
scattered diurnal cumulus through this afternoon.

Warm advection will spread across the region tonight with patchy mid
level cloud cover.

Sunday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.


Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure over the
western Great Lakes will maintain moderate northwest winds through
this evening on Lake Ontario. This will continue to support Small
Craft Advisory conditions. High pressure will then build slowly east
and closer to the region tonight, with winds and waves slowly
subsiding from west to east.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for



LONG TERM...Church
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