Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 200614
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will taper off early Sunday behind a cold front. Clouds
will be slow to erode today, with sunshine returning early across
the North Country, and later across Western New York. This sunshine
will spell a slightly warmer day today than yesterday across the
North Country, while areas south of Lake Ontario will be cooler
today behind the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A cold front bearing down upon the region this early Sunday morning
will cross the forecast area early this morning with scattered to
numerous showers.

Abundant low level moisture will linger, that combined with recent
rainfall and cooling airmass behind the front will likely result in
some patchy fog, mainly across portions of the Niagara Frontier and
higher terrain of the Southern Tier and east of lake Ontario.
Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday, surface high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build
southeast into the lower lakes along with drier air pushing in
behind the front. Temperatures look seasonable with most highs in
the mid to upper 60s, although onshore winds will keep lakeshore
areas cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will slide across the region while weakening Sunday
night into Monday, providing for dry weather to kick off the work
week. With the light winds and clear skies Sunday night, can expect
a crisp morning on Monday as temperatures start off in the upper 40s
and likely some dew on the ground. Temperatures will recover into
the mid 70s Monday as diurnal heating and some weak southerly flow
ahead of the next storm system bring in some warmer air. A weak wave
will then approach the eastern Great Lakes later Monday and cross
the region through Tuesday. Cloud cover will increase from southwest
to northeast ahead of this wave Monday, with precipitation chances
holding off until Monday evening through Tuesday. Still some model
timing issues for the location and strength of the next shortwave,
with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday most likely focusing on lake
breeze circulations. The wave will depart to our east later Tuesday
with a clearing and drying out trend through Wednesday. Slightly
above normal temperatures in the mid 70s will remain through mid-
week, with nighttime lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the eastern Great Lakes for the second
half of the work week, bringing dry weather and slightly above
normal temperatures from the mid 70s to low 80s during the day to
the mid 50s at night.

A trough is then set to impinge upon the Great Lakes region as we
move into the weekend, with several global models also showing some
poleward advection of tropical moisture into the region ahead of the
trough. Thus there is some potential for heavy rainfall next
weekend, although there are plenty of details that still need to be
resolved.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS a cold front will pass across the region through
the first 6 hours, with scattered to numerous rain showers.
Visibilities within the showers should remain MVFR or greater.
Behind the front widespread IFR or lower ceilings are expected as
low level moisture remains abundant...with some areas of fog likely
across the So. Tier...including the KJHW terminal.

Shortly after 12Z rain showers will be ending across the North
Country, including the KART airfield...with flight conditions slowly
improving back to VFR. Expect these VFR flight conditions to persist
through Sunday night for all areas save for the SO. Tier where some
areas of fog with IFR flight conditions are likely.


Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak area of low pressure will track into southern Ontario
province tonight. Winds will shift from southeast to the west with
the passage of cold front associated with this low. Winds are
expected to remain below small craft criteria, but may be close at
times, especially behind the cold front across eastern portions of
Lake Ontario during the day Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...AR/Thomas/TMA
SHORT TERM...Church
LONG TERM...Church
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...AR/TMA



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