Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 221833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
233 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

High pressure centered over Ontario Province will maintain chilly
weather through the end of the week. A weak trough crossing our
region may generate some scattered snow showers southeast of Lake
Ontario later tonight into Friday. Dry weather is expected this
weekend while remaining cool. Temperatures will then finally climb
back to more normal levels by early next week as persistent deep
troughing over the Northeast moves off the east coast.


High pressure stretches from Hudson Bay southwest into the Central
States while the center of a Nor`easter is shifting east of New
England this afternoon. Northwest flow between these two systems
will continue cool temperatures in the 30s through the balance of
our daylight hours. A broad but broken moisture field continues to
circulate the Nor`easter with scattered/broken high level clouds
streaming across western and central NY. Dry conditions will
continue into this evening with the lack of enhanced moisture.

Tonight into Friday, a mid-level trough with weak vort max will drop
south across the eastern Great Lakes. Cold air advection and
increased moisture will add to northwest upslope flow with several
models indicating a slight/low chance for some light scattered lake-
enhanced snow showers. The core of the colder air aloft, falling
toward -12C at 850mb will arrive Friday morning. Less than an inch
of accumulation is possible with any snow showers that do develop
overnight into Friday. Temperatures will drop into the 20s at lower
elevations tonight and teens at higher elevations. Later Friday, the
mid-level trough axis will pass to our southeast, with enhanced
moisture beginning to dry up across western NY. Any scattered snow
showers will become confined to southeast of Lake Ontario with WNY
being mainly dry.


In general, the weekend looks to be dry with below normal temperatures.
An upper level trough will remain near New England during the
period, which will maintain a cool northerly component flow
across our region over the weekend.

On Friday night, any lingering snow showers or flurries south and
east of Lake Ontario should quickly taper off with the departure of
a shortwave embedded in the upper level flow. Colder air will build
in behind this, with consensus 850mb temperatures down to -15C by
Saturday night. The air mass is very dry, so this probably will
mainly result in lake effect clouds. This also will result in well
below normal temperatures for Saturday and Saturday night. Highs
will only be in the lower to mid 30s with lows Saturday night
ranging from the teens to lower 20s.

High pressure across southern Quebec will ridge into our region
Sunday and Sunday night. This will result in dry weather with quite
a bit of sunshine for Sunday afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will
be a bit warmer, but will still remain below normal through the
end of the weekend.


Strong subsidence will bring a prolonged period of clear skies
Monday into Tuesday.

Through the day Tuesday we will see mid and high level clouds build
across the region as moisture increases behind the surface high
pressure and a shortwave from the Plains approaches. There is still
uncertainty to the track of the shortwave, but there will be chances
for mainly rain showers Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Additionally, a light southerly flow behind the surface high will
bring a taste of early Spring Tuesday and into Wednesday. While we
will likely remain cool Monday with little mixing under the surface
high, Tuesday and Wednesday should feature afternoons that have
temperatures rising to or above normal. This would place maximum
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the region.


SCT-BKN VFR cirrus continues to stream across our region this
afternoon associated with a storm system centered east of New
England. Northwest flow will continue with dry weather into
this evening.

A disturbance will cross our region tonight into Friday. Increased
moisture and upslope northwest flow will result in a slight/low
chance for some scattered lake-enhance snow showers. The best chance
will be across KROC/KART late tonight into Friday. Reductions in
VSBY is possible in any snow shower activity but coverage/confidence
right over the terminals is still too limited to include in these
TAFs. Lower end VFR or MVFR cigs are likely south/east of Lake
Ontario later tonight into Friday.


Friday night...Mainly VFR. Chances of Lake Effect snow
south/east of Lake Ontario tapering off.
Saturday through Tuesday...VFR.


Northwest winds will increase this evening as a disturbance
approaches the eastern Great Lakes. A marginal Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for this evening for the south shore of Lake
Ontario. Winds and waves will diminish later tonight into Friday
morning. Sub-advisory conditons are expected Friday into this


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday
         for LOZ042-043.



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