Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 242006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
406 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Strong high pressure will drift slowly east across Quebec tonight
through Monday, with a ridge extending down into the Great Lakes
providing more dry weather. Chilly temperatures will last through
the end of the weekend before warmer air arrives during the first
half of the work week. Rain chances will increase late Tuesday
through Wednesday as a cold front slowly crosses the region.


Tonight and Sunday a strong 1040mb surface high will drift slowly
east across Quebec, with a ridge extending down into the Great
Lakes. A mid level closed circulation will drop south out of Quebec
and move across eastern NY overnight, reaching the NYC area by 12Z
Sunday. An associated weak surface cold front will drop south across
the area tonight. Forcing for ascent will increase east of Lake
Ontario this evening ahead of this feature, but low level moisture
remains sparse across our region. Expect any snow showers to be
confined to well east of our area, where somewhat better moisture
will be found. With this in mind, kept a dry forecast overnight with
increasing clouds east of Lake Ontario. Clouds are also likely to
increase south of Lake Ontario as the mid level trough briefly
raises lake induced equilibrium levels to around 7K feet.
Again, moisture depth appears sufficient for clouds but not any
snow showers.

On Sunday the lake effect clouds in the morning will evolve into
diurnal cumulus by early afternoon and likely mix out as the shallow
low level moisture field diminishes further. This should leave
increasing amounts of sunshine for the afternoon.

Temperatures will remain well below average, with lows tonight in
the upper teens to lower 20s on the lake plains, and lower teens
across the Southern Tier valleys and east of Lake Ontario. Highs on
Sunday will again be in the 30s in most areas.


Model guidance continues to show an amplified 500mb ridge over the
Eastern States Monday into Tuesday with a digging Central States
trough working to push the ridge off the East Coast Wednesday. NAFES
mean standardized anomaly forecasts show the ridge will run close to
two standard deviations above normal for this time of year. This
means we have a good chance to finally see a stretch of above normal
surface temperatures. At the surface, the center of high pressure
which has been providing us with cool and dry weather for much of
the past week is forecast to be centered over southern Quebec Monday
with ridging stretched south along the East Coast. This ridge is
forecast to become pitched off between an approaching frontal zone
moving into the Midwest and a slowly retrograding western Atlantic
low through Tuesday. Expect dry weather likely through Tuesday
morning before increasing chances of rain showers develop from the
west Tuesday afternoon with the approach of the frontal zone.

Southwesterly winds will advect warmer air north across Western and
Central NY Monday and Tuesday. After a cool start Monday morning
with temps in the 20s near the lakes and teens inland, we expect
temps to warm into the 40s by Monday afternoon and mid 40s to
low/mid 50s on Tuesday as 850mb temps surge above 0C. This should be
welcomed warmth after more than two weeks with below normal
temperatures through much of March. After mainly clear skies through
Monday, moisture ahead of the approaching frontal zone will bring
back cloud cover through Tuesday.

The stalled/slow moving frontal zone just the west of New York looks
to bring a likely probability for rain showers Tuesday night into
Wednesday with a slow progression eastward. Chance POPs for rain
showers are then included Wednesday night with the frontal zone
either over of just east of western NY. Most guidance shows the peak
of the warm stretch to come Wednesday with Highs likely reaching
again into the 50s in WNY and mid/upper 40s east of Lake Ontario.
With a steady southwest feed of warm air do not expect the rain
showers to impact daytime highs. Overnight temps are expected to
remain above freezing with no threat of snow/ice through midweek.


As this period opens on Thursday...the the midweek frontal zone will
be in the process of sliding off to our east and dissipating. This
boundary could touch off a few additional scattered showers across
mainly our southeastern periphery as it slides east and weakens...
otherwise mainly dry weather should prevail. Temperature-wise we
can expect one more day of highs largely in the lower to mid 50s...
with the higher terrain and areas along and inland from the east
end of the lakes potentially remaining in the 40s.

Thursday night the guidance has trended notably drier overall...
with a bubble of high pressure and drier air the dominant weather
feature through at least the early overnight hours...with only the
ECMWF bringing a chance of precip back in late in conjunction with
an approaching wave over the Ohio Valley...and the other medium
range guidance remaining dry. With the above in mind...have elected
to cut the high chance PoPs from continuity back to low chance...
with the bulk of the night in fact likely to be dry.

After that forecast uncertainty increases markedly through the
remainder of this the various medium range guidance
packages show wildly varying solutions on the track and timing of
the next system...which will consequently have a big influence on
what temperatures and ptype(s) we can expect for the end of the week.
With the above in mind in tandem with our current distant vantage
point...have therefore leaned toward a mix of a current model
consensus and forecast continuity...which would favor near normal
temperatures and the arrival of another low/round of rain showers
on Friday...with colder air and the chance of snow showers then
returning Friday night and Saturday following the passage of this


A weak mid level trough will move south across eastern NY tonight,
and will bring an increase in clouds east of Lake Ontario. Some lake
effect clouds may also develop south of Lake Ontario including the
KBUF and KROC areas. CIGS should remain VFR even as these clouds
develop. On Sunday the lake effect clouds will evolve into diurnal
cumulus by early afternoon, with VFR again prevailing.


Monday through Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with some rain showers
Thursday...Mainly VFR.


Strong high pressure will build slowly east across Quebec tonight
and Sunday, with a ridge extending down into the Great Lakes.
Northeast winds will briefly increase tonight and early Sunday
behind a cold front, bringing a short lived round of Small Craft
Advisory conditions to the south shore of Lake Ontario. Winds will
diminish again later Sunday, with relatively light winds then
lasting into the early part of the week.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday
         for LOZ042>044.



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