Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 141055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
655 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will track north of
highway 30 through daybreak. Locally heavy rain and some small hail
is possible with the stronger storms.

Warm and humid this afternoon with strong to severe storms
developing toward evening. Highs will range from the upper 80s south
to the upper 70s north.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight with locally heavy
rain possible over northern Indiana. Lows will range through the 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Complicated fcst this period. Lots at work this morning including
torrid EML situate from central IA south through MO. Wrn edge of
this feature in tandem with quasi-stationary front in se NE fueling
intense storms. Additional elevated storms firing with conviction
from ne IA through srn WI and sct storms locally just north of warm
frontal boundary through cntrl IN.

Near term CAMS solutions agreeable in a general sense with ewd
expansion/organization of upstream elevated activity. However late
night timing mitigates a more substantial risk with marginal hail
looking like the primary threat in stronger updrafts that develop
downstream through nrn IN/srn MI. Secondary concerns lies with
potential heavy rain again given loose w-e orientation and potential
training across far nrn zones pending how things evolve upstream.
Little concrete signals just yet to tie this threat down.

Sw flank of this activity later this morning may pose a bit higher
damaging wind risk mainly over a portion of nw OH (south of US 24)
as some heating will occur along with a potentially more vigorous
pressure perturbation manifesting within developing se NE/sw IA MCS.

Outflow boundary and mesohigh associated with morning complex poses
svrl many questions for this aftn. Primarily where wrn extent of
potential outflow boundary hangs up, degree of heating/recovery that
occurs in wake of morning activity east, and how far north warm
front mixes west. Clearly defined MCV from extensive TX panhandle
severe convection last evening will liftout through ern IA this aftn
and initiate storms over wrn through nrn IL in zone of enhanced low
level warm advection and reduced inhibition stemming from eroding
EML. Would expect a very unstable airmass will reside downstream
through ern IL/wrn IN with upscale growth likely as this
propagates/organizes east this evening with a legitimate hail/wind
risk. Much of this will likely continue/fester overnight sw in wake
of evening storms as vigorous low level warm advection continues.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Flop back toward more suppression seen in strong 00Z based consensus
in H5 troughing through se Canada with accompanying stronger sfc
ridging building through the lakes Tue aftn through Wed. See no
reason not to follow strong downward trending pop guidance as
primary frontal forcing mechanism drops into the OH river valley.
Certainly strong to severe convection tonight and composite effects
of outflow will aide in dispelling this boundary far enough south to
not have an influence Tue aftn.

Thereafter quiet weather expected through Thu anticyclonic flow
aloft/sfc ridging build across the lakes. Ern Gomex upper low looks
to lift north into the OH valley Fri-Sat as H5 trough breaks down
through se Canada. Some rain likely with this feature over nw OH but
wrn extent through IN/MI uncertain. Fairly vigorous long wave
feature then looks to dig through srn Canada Sun with cold frontal
push through the OH valley and some risk for storms pending timing.
Temps through the period well above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Convective line now impacting KSBN will slowly drift ESE through
the morning. Still some uncertainty if it will push far enough
south to impact KFWA but worth at least a VCTS mention for later
this morning. VFR expected by afternoon but another round of
storms expected toward the end of the period as another wave
crosses the region and intersects a very moist and unstable





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