Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151746

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1246 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Issued at 1035 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2018

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for counties across eastern
Kansas and western Missouri from 12 PM to 7 PM CDT today. Dew
point values in the upper 20 to lower 30 degree range will
gradually increase today, though as surface temps warm through the
afternoon, relative humidity values will dip to around 25
percent. This, combined with existing dry surface fuels and gusty
winds up to 25 to 30 mph this afternoon, will make for very high
fire danger across the affected areas. Conditions should improve
overnight as surface temps cool, and precip chances will return


Issued at 318 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2018

The synoptic setup today is looking to deliver one of the nicest
days of the year. A shortwave trough will exit the Rockies leading
to cyclogenesis over western Kansas creating southerly winds and
WAA, while a mid to upper level shortwave ridge moves overhead keeping
skies clear. This low level WAA and warmer 850hPa temps near 10C
will help drive temperatures into the lower to mid 70s south of
the MO River and into the lower 60s across northern MO. A rise in
dewpoint temperatures and lighter winds today will help to
alleviate the fire weather concerns, although fuels are still dry
so burning will need to be done with caution. As the surface low
deepens and moves NE an area of lower level isentropic accent will
develop ahead of the developing surface warm front over Kansas
leading to possible elevated showers and just enough MUCAPE will
be around to have isolated thunder as this elevated boundary
pushes through. This feature will move quickly to the east
allowing most of the area to get some much needed rain, although
QPF totals remain below a quarter inch for the first wave of

The low will quickly become vertically stacked slowing down the
eastward movement as it intensifies Friday. The pressure gradient
over the area will tighten quickly Friday morning causing breezy
conditions with sustained winds near 20mph in northern Missouri with
gusts in the upper 30s. A true surface warm front will develop
Friday afternoon over eastern KS then push through Central Missouri.
This push of lower level WAA will coincide with cooling temperatures
aloft rapidly destabilizing the atmosphere with MUCAPE values near
1000 J/kg along the boundary. This will lead to a better chance of
more organized convection south of the Missouri River and even a
marginal severe weather threat with plenty of shear in place as it
pushes through. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main
threats with this boundary. Overrunning of this warm frontal
boundary will lead to consistent rainfall over northern Missouri
where up to 0.5" of QPF is possible by the end of Friday between
0.25-0.5" toward the KC Metro area.

Colder air will funnel into the region on the backside of this low
as it moves east dropping high temperatures south of the Missouri
River near 15 degrees into the 50s Saturday.  Some light showers may
occur along the dissipating occluded boundary over northern
Missouri, but little QPF is expected with this feature. A steady
northerly wind near 10-15 mph Saturday morning will drop wind chill
values into the 30s for Saturday morning events around the area.
Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will be short lived as
another shortwave trough exits the Rockies and a wash rinse repeat
type pattern sets up for Sunday night into Monday. This system will
have a more southerly track keeping our area on the cooler side of
the system as it passes through with the occluded boundary stalling
over the area most of Monday. This quasi-stationary nature to the
boundary will allow for a decent precipitation accumulation with
steady rain and isolated thunder as it pushes through. Storm total
QPF for this system through Tuesday morning indicates widespread 0.5-
0.75" amounts for the region. A secondary shortwave trough pushes
through Tuesday morning on the backside leading to possibly higher
totals over NW Missouri. High pressure and upper level ridging build
into the region Wednesday with seasonable temperatures through the


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon hours with
steady surface winds out of the south. Rain shower and
thunderstorm chances will commence overnight into Friday morning.
Wind speeds will also increase, gusting up to 30 kts late tonight
and Friday morning. At this time, expecting ceiling heights to
remain MVFR, though may need to refine this to IFR early Friday
morning, depending on the extent of low-level moisture.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-

MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ020-028-029-



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