Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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420
FXUS64 KFWD 211656
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1156 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018


.UPDATE...
No significant changes to the current forecast for the remainder
of the afternoon other than to nudge PoPs a little farther
northwest. Visible satellite imagery shows an extensive cumulus
field all the way from the coast through North Texas although some
thicker mid level cloud cover is persistent across central Texas.
The best moisture is pooled across southeast Texas although this
will spread northwest through the afternoon. With convective
inhibition weakening across the region and a weakness present in
the mid level heights, scattered showers and thunderstorms should
continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon. Our
southeastern counties will have the best chance for thunderstorms
and we`ll keep the highest PoPs in that area. We`ve pulled the
slight chances back a little farther northwest including the
Metroplex through early afternoon. Otherwise, no other changes are
needed at this time.

Dunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 619 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/
/12Z TAFs/

High clouds continue to stream across the region this morning, but
where breaks in the clouds are occurring, a combination of fog,
near-surface stratus, and cumulus clouds with bases around 4-5 kft
has been developing. Any of these may impact the area airports
this morning through about 15Z, but then VFR conditions are
expected for the remainder of the day. The clouds between 4-5 kft
will remain for much of the day, though. Light and variable winds
may prevail from a mostly easterly direction but should return to
a southerly direction tonight. With wet soils still in place,
another round of fog and stratus is possible late tonight and
into Tuesday morning.

JLDunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 352 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/
/Today through Tuesday night/

Weak upper level ridging will build across the region today, but
that does not mean a precipitation-free day. A weak upper level
trough is still departing the region this morning, and some weak
showers may occur across our southern and southeastern counties
as this trough departs the area. The upper level ridge will build
in from the west this afternoon, and this can be seen in the
forecast soundings as drying increases within the mid and upper
levels. This drying trend is not as pronounced in our southeastern
counties where the environment will remain in a col pattern
characterized by an uncapped environment with PWATs over 1.5
inches. A few additional showers or an isolated thunderstorm may
occur in this area this afternoon. However, the lack of a forcing
mechanism may result in less coverage than model guidance suggests
and kept PoPs at 20-30 percent. Strong or severe storms are not
expected mainly due to weak winds resulting in disorganized
convection.

Any rain this afternoon should quickly dissipate this evening with
a quiet overnight period expected. The upper level ridge will be
nudged south as a shortwave trough moving into West Texas works
against it. Overnight tonight there`s a low chance a few showers
may occur in our eastern counties where PWATs remain high, but did
not mention this in the forecast at this time. Without the upper
level ridge on Tuesday, a few diurnally-driven showers or storms
may try to develop, but these attempts may be squashed by the
drier air in the mid and upper levels and lack of a decent
forcing mechanism. Remnants of a storm complex across West Texas
on Tuesday may bring some light rain to our western counties late
Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Where the skies are clearing underneath high clouds this morning,
fog is quickly developing over wet soils. This fog should
dissipate by mid morning. Brief instances of dense fog may occur,
but with high clouds continuing to stream across the region, it
appears unlikely a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed. High
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 80s with
overnight lows in the 60s and lower 70s.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 352 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018/
/Wednesday Through Memorial Day Weekend/

The upper low that will be anchored over the Southwest early in
the week will dislodge on Wednesday. With ridging aloft amplifying
into the Upper Midwest, the trough will be forced to eject
northeastward into the Northern Rockies. This will open the door
for subtropical ridging over Mexico to nose into Texas. Although
this will stifle rain chances for much of the region Wednesday
through Friday, the Mexican ridge building in from the southwest
will struggle to bridge the gap to the high amplitude ridge over
the Mississippi Valley. As a result, East Texas will be under a
col within an axis of rich PW. While there won`t be anything to
organize convective development, with the weakness aloft, daytime
heating should be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms in our eastern zones each day. Though unlikely to
pose a severe threat, these slow-moving efficient rain producers
could result in some flooding issues.

The East Texas activity will be the northwestern fringe of a much
larger area of deepening tropical moisture that will consume the
Gulf of Mexico late in the week. The convection within this trough
will increase each day, encouraging the intensification of a
closed low. Available extended guidance (and associated ensemble
members) continue to show considerable spread with the location
and intensity of the resulting cyclone, but regardless of the
solution, this will mean northerly flow above Texas for the
Memorial Day weekend. While there is better consensus with the
flow, the trend is toward weaker cold advection into the Plains
with a more languid cold front. Northerly surface winds should
eventually reach North and Central Texas during the upcoming
holiday weekend, and Saturday`s shower/storm chances are related
to this frontal passage. However, temperatures may remain above
normal. If the Gulf low favors the more westerly solutions,
showers and thunderstorms may continue to disrupt outdoor plans in
East Texas. But the resulting subsidence to the west would
overwhelm any low-level cold advection, and an unpleasantly hot
Memorial Day could result.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  72  88  71  91 /  20  10  20  10  10
Waco                86  70  88  70  91 /  20  10  20  10  10
Paris               85  68  85  68  89 /  20  10  20  10  30
Denton              86  68  87  68  90 /  20  10  20  10  10
McKinney            86  67  86  68  90 /  20  10  20  10  20
Dallas              88  73  88  73  91 /  20  10  20  10  10
Terrell             85  69  86  69  90 /  20  10  20  10  20
Corsicana           85  70  87  70  90 /  30  10  20  10  20
Temple              85  68  88  68  91 /  20  10  20  10  10
Mineral Wells       86  67  87  67  90 /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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