Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 161735 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with a
tightening pressure gradient resulting in breezy conditions. Winds
will vary between 160-200 degrees over the next 24 hours but
should increase to 20G30KT by midday Tuesday. There is a low
chance for a brief period of MVFR cigs to spread northward late
tonight into early Tuesday morning along and east of the I-35
corridor, but we`ll leave it out for the time being given the low
confidence. Outside of this potential, no significant aviation
concerns are expected through Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

Today will be a warmer and breezy day with an upper level ridge
moving over the region. Temperatures early this morning are still
cool, in the 30s and 40s across much of the region. A surface high
currently extends along the Plains and should push some drier air
into our northern counties within the next few hours. A few
isolated locations in our northeast (and around Eastland, a well
known cold spot) may dip to 31-32 degrees near sunrise, but a
rapid warm up will ensue today.

The surface ridge will move east of the region this afternoon, and
southerly winds will quickly return in response to leeside
cyclogenesis in Colorado. Winds of 15-20 mph are expected along
and west of the Interstate 35 corridor, and winds of 10-15 mph are
expected to the east. These winds will rapidly draw low-level
moisture north, and dewpoints in the 50s will surge into the
region this afternoon and tonight. The return of south to west
winds in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere will transport
warmer air into the region, and afternoon temperatures are
expected to be several degrees warmer. Afternoon highs will mostly
be in the 70s and lower 80s, but areas around Lamar County may
remain in the upper 60s. Sunshine will be the rule, but some high
clouds will likely arrive this afternoon.

Fire weather conditions this afternoon will be near elevated
criteria west of Highway 281 where winds of 15-20 mph will
coincide with above normal temperatures and RH values in the lower
20s. ERC values in this area show drying fuel moisture that may
become more of a concern on Tuesday.

The breezy winds will continue overnight, and overnight lows will
be noticeably warmer in the 50s and lower 60s. With the rapid
return of moisture, some light fog may occur in Central Texas
starting in the early morning hours of Tuesday.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/
/Tuesday through next Monday/

The upper ridge axis will shift eastward on Tuesday as a shortwave
trough races east across the Rockies. A strengthening surface low
will accompany the shortwave, tightening the pressure gradient
and generating gusty surface winds across North and Central Texas.
A southwest component of the low level flow will usher in a warm
and dry airmass, which will be most noticed over the western
counties where high temperatures will likely top out in the lower
90s. Warm and windy weather will create elevated fire danger west
of Highway 281, with conditions even more volatile west of the
forecast area where drier vegetation exists. A Fire Weather Watch
is not expected at this time due to fuel moisture levels remaining
high enough to preclude a critical fire threat. Conditions may
also approach Wind Advisory criteria on Tuesday so that will be
something else to keep an eye on.

On Wednesday, the system will continue east through the Plains,
dragging a weak cold front through North and Central Texas.
Conditions will likely remain too dry for any precipitation along
the front, though a few sprinkles will be possible over the
southeast counties. Wednesday`s temperatures will be generally 5
to 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

South winds will return on Thursday as a deep upper low drops
southeast across California and a lee-side trough redevelops.
Wind speeds will remain light on Thursday before ramping up
quickly Thursday night and Friday as the upper level system
crosses the Four Corners region and lee-side troughing
intensifies. A deep southerly fetch will draw Gulf moisture
northward across the area, setting the stage for a round of
showers and storms late Friday and Saturday as the upper low
generates strong and large-scale ascent across the region.

Model guidance is in good agreement with the timing and intensity
of the system. Instability and shear will be sufficient for strong
to possibly severe storms, but at this time the severe potential
appears modest due to the best lift and associated convective
potential occurring Friday night and Saturday morning. Better
potential would likely occur west of the area where good
instability will exist Friday afternoon and evening. CIPS analog
guidance out to 120 hours also produces severe potential just
west of North and Central Texas. That said, this potential will be
getting close to the western part of the CWA late Friday and we
will need to keep a close eye on the evolution of the system over
the next several days. Rainfall may be locally heavy at times
due to the abundance of Gulf moisture, but these rains should be
well received by the dry terrain. The exception may be over
eastern counties where rainfall has been much more generous this
month, and some localized flooding cannot be ruled out during the
Friday night/Saturday timeframe.

Precipitation will exit to the east Saturday night and Sunday
along with the upper level low and attendant cold front. Cooler
and drier air is expected Sunday and Monday following the passage
of the front. Ridging aloft should keep dry and seasonable weather
in place through the middle part of next week.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  58  87  62  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                79  58  87  62  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               68  52  79  61  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              76  57  85  60  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            74  56  81  61  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              79  59  86  63  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             75  57  82  62  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           75  58  85  61  78 /   0   0   0   5   5
Temple              79  58  86  62  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       81  57  90  59  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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