Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200003 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
703 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018


.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms have formed along a frontal boundary
that extended from KAVK (Alva, OK) to KGDS (Goodlett, TX) to
KLBB (Lubbock, TX) about 50 miles south of KCVS (Clovis, NM).
Storms were also developing along a dryline that extended from
south of KLBB to about 60 miles southwest of KMAF (Midland, TX).
The main concern for North and Central Texas should be the storms
that have formed along the frontal boundary. Some of these storms
are expected to affect the UKW cornerpost through 05z and this
activity should weaken as it approaches the I-35 corridor. Thus
have placed VCSH in the Metroplex TAF sites starting at 08z with a
TEMPO SHRA for the 08-12z period. This may need to be updated to
VCTS/TSRA with later updates. As an outflow boundary from the
showers/thunderstorms may bring a wind shift to the northwest for
a few hours at the Metroplex. Some MVFR ceilings are also expected
to spread north into the area around 08z and hang in through
15-16z. VFR conditions are expected after 16z Sunday.


58

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 334 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018/
/Through Tonight/

Main focus through the short term forecast period is thunderstorm
potential overnight. Convection has already developed along a
slow-moving cold front through the Texas Panhandle and into
Oklahoma, although this initial batch of convection won`t be
affecting the forecast area tonight. Instead, our focus will be on
new thunderstorm development in the next few hours from Lubbock
southeastward along the cold front and dryline interface where
strong low-level convergence is occurring in a weakly capped and
very unstable environment. This convection will grow upscale
quickly and consolidate into a convective complex later this
evening. By midnight, this cluster of storms should be approaching
our northwestern zones, where it is expected to undergo a fairly
rapid weakening trend. However, a couple strong or borderline
severe storms will be possible northwest of roughly a Gainesville
to Cisco line prior to weakening. This threat would primarily
consist of strong winds, although some sub-severe hail is also a
possibility.

There are a couple factors working against the sustenance of an
MCS into North Texas tonight, the primary one being considerable
dry air in the 600-900mb layer. In turn, this dry air will limit
the low-level instability available with more favorable moisture
and instability confined to the low-level theta-e axis positioned
just east of the dryline through the Texas Big Country and Hill
Country. As the associated outflow surges into North Texas, it
should struggle to produce much new convection. Instead, the more
robust segment of the complex should surge southward along the
low-level theta-e axis along the western periphery of the
forecast area. Will keep highest PoPs confined to our far western
and northwest zones, with a tight gradient in the chances for
measurable rainfall dropping off around the I-35 corridor. A few
showers or thunderstorms may linger into daybreak Sunday,
especially along or west of I-35. The cold front will stall
northwest of the forecast area, so the front itself won`t be
providing relief from our recent bout of above normal temperatures;
low temperatures will mostly be in the low 70s. However,
locations affected by rain-cooled air associated with thunderstorm
outflow may fall into the mid 60s.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 334 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018/
/Sunday through Saturday/

An unsettled weather pattern along with above normal temperatures
is expected for much of the coming week. An upper level trough
will dig into the southwestern U.S. Sunday and cut off over
southern California Sunday night and the lift northeast across the
northern Plains by Friday. This will keep us in southwesterly
flow aloft which will allow several difficult to time upper level
disturbances to moves across the Plains.

A weakening Mesoscale Convective System may be moving across
North Texas Sunday morning with the highest coverage being west of
I-35. These storms should leave an outflow boundary for potential
afternoon convection with the best chances of storms being
southwest of a Breckenridge to Centerville line. Given the mid-
level lapse rates and moderate instability, some strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible with 1 inch hail and wind gusts to
60 mph possible. High temperatures will be temperature/convection
dependent, but should mostly be in the 80s.

Another thunderstorm complex is expected to develop over West
Texas along a cold frontal boundary. This activity should slide
southeast into the western zones Sunday night.

We will have low to moderate chances of showers and thunderstorms
area wide primarily during the daytime Monday through Wednesday
with lingering low chances across areas along and northeast of the
I-20/I-45 corridors into Thursday.

Mostly rain-free weather with above normal temperatures is
expected Thursday night through Saturday but will have to keep an
eye on how much an upper level ridge to our west builds. If we end
up in more northwesterly than northerly flow aloft, low chances of
showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  86  70  89  70 /  30  30  20  30  10
Waco                73  87  68  89  69 /  20  40  20  30  10
Paris               69  86  68  87  68 /   5  20  20  30  10
Denton              69  86  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  30  10
McKinney            71  86  68  87  69 /  20  20  20  30  10
Dallas              74  88  71  90  72 /  20  30  20  30  10
Terrell             71  89  68  89  68 /  10  20  20  30  10
Corsicana           71  86  69  89  69 /  20  20  20  30  10
Temple              72  87  68  88  68 /  20  40  30  30  10
Mineral Wells       68  86  66  86  66 /  50  40  30  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/24



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