Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 151751 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1251 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

/18Z TAFs/

VFR with diminishing north flow. South flow on Monday.

The upper trough responsible for the gusty northwest winds this
weekend will finally push east of the region today, and surface
wind speeds will gradually subside. Another chilly surface high
may attempt to invade North Texas tonight. The resulting col in
the wind field may leave the Metroplex in light northeast flow
while Waco has light southerly flow. In any event, the combined
ridge axis will finally push east on Monday as lee troughing
develops, and southerly surface flow will take hold regionwide.
Speeds may top 15kts Monday afternoon and will only get stronger
Monday night into Tuesday as lee troughing deepens.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 316 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

The upper level trough is finally exiting the region this morning
and northwest flow aloft will prevail through tonight. Temperatures
this morning will start off chilly in the 30s and lower 40s, and
locations along and north of a Graham to Paris line will likely be
around 31-32 degrees. Even though spots in Fannin and Lamar
counties may fall in this range, have decided not to expand the
Freeze Warning considering it is the middle of the night and just
a few hours away from potentially reaching the freezing mark. This
afternoon, high temperatures are expected to range from the upper
50s in the northeast, to upper 60s in our west and southwest
counties where a few locations may reach 70 degrees. Mixing will
occur again today allowing for stronger winds aloft to transport
to the surface. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph are expected with
gusts of 20-25 mph. The strongest winds are expected across our
northeast counties, closer to the departing trough, and there
could be gusts near 30 mph in this area.

The surface high will slowly move southeast away from the region
tonight, and wind speeds will fall to less than 5-10 mph and
begin turning to the south. However, another surface high moving
down the Plains will push a weak boundary into the northeast
portions of our CWA early Monday morning resulting in a wind shift
back to the north. Low temperatures late tonight and early Monday
morning will range from the mid 30s in the north and northeast to
mid 40s in the southwest.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 316 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018/
/Monday through Next Weekend/

North and Central Texas will undergo a warming trend during the
first part of the work week. An upper level ridge will be
partially responsible for the warmer weather as it develops
between low pressure systems over the Great lakes and West Coast.
In addition, south winds will return on Monday, beginning a warm
advection regime across the region. Monday`s temperatures will
return to near-normal with highs ranging from the lower 70s
across the northeast to the mid 80s across the far west. By
Tuesday, temperatures will be above normal, with highs ranging
from near 80 in the northeast to 90 over the west. South winds
will be a tad on the gusty side which will place the western-most
counties in a state of elevated fire danger during the afternoon
hours Monday and Tuesday.

By midweek, the West Coast upper low will be progressing east
across the Plains, which will send a weak cold front south of the
Red River on Wednesday. Meager levels of moisture and lift will
limit POPs to the far southeast counties and only in the slight
chance category. The cool-down will likewise be unimpressive; most
likely in the 5 to 10 degree range for Wednesday. It will also be
short-lived, as low level warm advection should return again on
Thursday ahead of the next upper level system.

This next upper low will drop southeast from California to the
Four Corners area on Thursday before continuing east into the
Southern Plains on Friday. Southerly low level flow will intensify
Thursday night into Friday in response to a strengthening surface
low in lee of the Rockies. As the upper low and surface cyclone
progress east through the Plains, a cold front will push
southeast through North and Central Texas.

There are still some timing inconsistencies between model
guidance with regard to the arrival of the best lift and the
surface front, with both the 15/00Z runs of the GFS and Canadian
about 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. However, all guidance has
come into good agreement with the likelihood of moisture and lift
being sufficient for the development of showers and thunderstorms.
If the GFS and Canadian pan out, Friday night would be the more
likely timing of convection, which may limit surface instability
and associated severe threat. Meanwhile the ECMWF holds
development back until Saturday, which may allow for better
surface destabilization and enhance the severe threat.

These are details that will become better known as we head
forward into this week, but being mid to late April should bring
at least a low-end opportunity for strong or severe storms as the
next weekend approaches. Afterwards, the passage of a Pacific
front and redevelopment of high pressure aloft should bring dry
and seasonal weather late next weekend into the early part of the
following week.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  46  78  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                67  41  80  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               57  37  71  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              63  37  77  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            61  36  75  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              64  47  78  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             62  39  76  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           63  42  77  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              68  44  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       66  41  83  55  87 /   0   0   0   0   0




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