Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 220336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1136 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

High pressure will keep quiet weather across the area into early
Sunday. A closed low pressure system will drift slowly eastward
and northward out of the central Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley tomorrow into mid week, providing opportunities for showers
at times from late tomorrow into Wednesday. A quick moving upper
trough and cold front late in the week will bring additional
shower chances to the area as well.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 903 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Current forecast in good shape. No updates planned at this time.
Previous discussion follows.

Expect quiet weather through tonight as high pressure over the
central Great Lakes slowly drifts eastward. Mid and high cloud has
overspread much of the area this afternoon and this will only
continue through the night.

Dropped min temps from the blend slightly as, while increasing
cloud cover will keep temps from bottoming out, dewpoints will
remain quite low overnight although they will be slowly rising.
Should easily see the low to mid 40s most areas, and perhaps the
upper 30s north.


.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Vertically stacked low pressure system will be in the lower
Mississippi Valley by midday Sunday and showers may nudge into the
far southwestern portions of the area Sunday afternoon. Chances
for showers will slowly overspread the area Sunday night into
Monday, with chances remaining through the short term period as
the low drifts northward through the Tennessee Valley into the
Ohio Valley through mid week before finally beginning to be
reabsorbed into the prevailing westerlies.

Profiles through the period are relatively moist throughout the
depth of the troposphere but lapse rates are mostly near moist
adiabatic and little to no upright instability is present, so will
include no thunder mentions. SREF calibrated thunder probabilities
support this.

With minor tweaks, consensus temperatures were generally in the
ballpark. Bumped highs up slightly Sunday as we have warmed well
even under the cloud cover this afternoon, and most areas will
remain dry tomorrow. This is well supported by upstream
temperatures as well.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

High confidence persists in a cooler and more unsettled regime
through much of the extended as a series of waves rotate through
a broad upper trough anchored across the eastern U S. Timing and
track of the specific systems remains a bit uncertain at this
point with details likely to come into better focus over the next
couple days.

The initial upper wave will lift out of the region Tuesday night
with rainfall diminishing. Guidance is starting to shift the track
of a second upper wave further south into the Tennessee Valley for
Wednesday and Wednesday night...with the growing possibility that
any showers from this feature remain isolated and just graze the
forecast area. Yet another upper wave with a surface low and cold
front as well will impact the region Friday into Friday night
with scattered showers and a reinforcing shot of cooler air.

Temperatures will be cool but want to stress that we are not
talking about the chilly conditions of earlier this month.
Daytime temps most days will be in the 50s and lower 60s with
Friday likely the coolest day. The more significant and sustained
warmup still resides on the horizon about 7-10 days away as the
ridge aloft shifts east into early May.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 220600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1136 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Ceilings above 050 and unrestricted visibility expected at the
terminals through midday Sunday. Surface winds 070-100 degrees at
5-9 kts overnight will increase to 9-13 kts by midday Sunday.




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