Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240215
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1015 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Cloudy and rainy weather will persist into Wednesday as a low
pressure system currently centered over western Tennessee
continues its track into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. After a
lull in activity around mid-week with high pressure, the next
system and its associated cold front will bring additional rain
chances on Friday. Meanwhile, temperatures will continue to be at
or slightly below normal until next weekend when there`s a shift
to warmer temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 901 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Short term model guidance suggests generally weak and disorganized
lift across the area for the rest of the night, so will drop the
higher PoPs back into the chance category. Will also bump up the
wind speeds tonight given current observations.

Previous discussion follows.

The main focus of tonight will be rain chances.

Widespread rain showers will continue into tonight as Gulf
moisture rotates around a closed low situated over the lower Mid
Mississippi Valley. Eastern and southern portions of the forecast
area can still expect the highest rain amounts with a couple
additional tenths of an inch, but the best dynamics have already
shifted a bit eastward. As a result, the intensity of the rain
showers will decrease throughout the evening and night. The
western third of the forecast area will decrease to just slight
chance pops after midnight. This is a moderate to high confidence
forecast.

Temperatures tonight will be a bit warmer with readings in the
upper 40s/low 50s. No changes were made to the latest blended
initialization.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Thursday/...

Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The aforementioned low pressure system will push into central
portions of Kentucky and Tennessee tomorrow. Additional rain
showers will continue through tomorrow evening (highest across
eastern counties) as moisture continues to wrap around the system.

Rain will start tapering off though during the Wed 00-06Z time
frame with most of central Indiana dry by Wed 06Z. After that, dry
conditions will prevail through the end of the short term period
has high pressure strengthens to the west.

The normal to slightly below normal temperatures will persist
throughout the period. Highs will generally be in the upper
50s/low 60s with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s on Tuesday night.
Wednesday night will be the coolest night of the week with decent
radiational cooling as skies clear behind the low pressure system.
Lows will dip back into the mid to upper 30s that night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...

Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

ECMWF suggests rather quiet weather through this period. The only
significant event appears to be the passage of a quick moving cold
front and upper wave pushing through the region on Friday. Have
included pops with this feature.

The ECMWF Then allows strong ridging aloft over the western
plains to slowly build east across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. This will bring dry and cool weather to Central Indiana as
lee side NW flow will prevalent through the weekend and into
early next week. Thus with strong High pressure in place across
the region...dry weather next weekend after Friday`s Cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 240300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

No changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous discussion
follows.

Lift continues to diminish across the area, resulting in shower
activity becoming more scattered in nature. Short term model
guidance suggests lift will remain rather disorganized tonight, so
shower activity should continue to be rather scattered in the
vicinity of the terminals tonight.

Ceilings generally in the MVFR category this evening, around
015-025. Some patchy IFR ceilings around 008 AGL still around, and
expecting this to become more prevalent later tonight as the
boundary layer cools.

Surface winds 080-110 degrees at 10-14 kts this evening will
gradually back around to 040-060 degrees at 6-9 kts by sunrise
Tuesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...JAS


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