Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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349
FXUS63 KIND 191836
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
236 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated
below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

High pressure is expected across the area through the weekend. A low
pressure system may affect the area by the early to middle parts of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Residual lower cloud cover should continue to clear out of the
southern zones as the afternoon goes by. Dry weather expected
tonight as surface high pressure noses into the area from the north.

Low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS lows tonight.
Most areas expected to drop below freezing for a time late tonight
into early Friday morning. No changes to freeze headlines planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Will continue with a dry forecast during this period as high
pressure remains over the Great Lakes. An upper low is expected to
drift through the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region by late
in the weekend. Some of the ensembles suggest a threat for rain may
make it into the southwest zones by Sunday afternoon, but so far
these solutions are in the minority. Will monitor the trends with
respect to this.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance for the next couple of days may be a bit on the warm side,
but overall the guidance looks reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Confidence remains high early in the extended period as blended
initialization continues to trend toward dry conditions from
Sunday into Monday. The ridge of high pressure will be disrupted
by a low pressure system to the south though on Monday. Latest
model runs show the Euro coming into line with the more
southeasterly route of the GFS. However, models are still not in
great agreement completely in regard to tracking and timing of
this system, so will continue with low to moderate confidence
during this time frame of the forecast. Nonetheless, a few rain
showers could skim the southern counties (mainly SE) from Monday
into Tuesday.

Further out, a closed upper low will track across the Upper
Midwest and start impacting central Indiana late Tuesday. Rain
chances will be best with this system through Wednesday.
Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will be either at or
slightly below normal at times.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 191800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions expected throughout the period.

High pressure is beginning to exert its influence over central
Indiana this afternoon...as skies clear with the arrival of drier
air. Should see any lingering stratocu diminish entirely by later
this afternoon with skies becoming clear for tonight and into
Friday as deep subsidence settles across the region.

Northerly winds remain gusty at times early this afternoon but
will diminish late tonight as the high builds in. Expect winds to
shift to east/northeast on Friday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
INZ045>048-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...Ryan



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